Clarendon's Shocking Picks for March Madness 2025: Upsets Guaranteed

As March rolls around, the air is charged with anticipation—March Madness is upon us, and the buzz is inescapable. Who will we root for? Who will make us jump off our seats with excitement or, indeed, heartbreak? But beyond the brackets, statistics, and player performances, there’s a story, a personal odyssey for many like myself, who’ve played their heart out in those very games. Here I am again, drawn back into the fray, with an amalgam of nostalgia and the thrill of new narratives. Can grand dame Dawn Staley take South Carolina to new heights this year after becoming the top seed? Or will Iowa make significant noise sans Clark and Martin? These are not mere games; they’re moments of pure, unadulterated competitive spirit that take us all on a rollercoaster of emotions. From my own experience, from the camaraderie of huddling with teammates on Selection Sunday, waiting to see if you’ve made the cut… It's a journey I know all too well. And now, with the abundance of talent, like Juju Watkins or the sensational Paige Bueckers, and even some unexpected underdogs set to steal the show, we stand at the precipice of something monumental but who, in this game of constant surprises, will actually take the plunge? LEARN MORE by checking out my article where I dive into the possibilities, the probabilities, and shed some light on those emotional March dance stories, sharing my absolutely biased opinions based on the data provided by our esteemed friends at Opta. LEARN MORE

Former Cal star and WNBA All-Star Layshia Clarendon breaks down the 2025 Womenâs NCAA Tournament and shares which teams are poised for a deep run.

Itâs that time of year. March, and the madness is electric.

I recall the joy of Selection Sunday my senior year, holding hands with my teammates, staring up at the screen waiting to hear our name called. We screamed as the California Golden Bears were revealed as the No. 2 seed, the highest in school history. Our gritty, fun loving, eclectic group danced all the way to the 2013 Final Four.

One of my proudest sports accomplishments.

March is about joy, living in the moment, and, most importantly, intense college basketball competition. It doesnât matter what you did up to that point. Win or go home isnât just a fun sports saying. The pressure is paramount. Getting an opportunity to dance in March is what the college season is all about. The womenâs game has grown tremendously over the last decade and has exploded in recent years with a variety of talent and storylines.

Can Dawn Staley and the 2023-2024 national champion South Carolina Gamecocks repeat?
What noise can Iowa make without Clark and Martin?
Is Texas overrated?
Is it Final Four or bust for USC?
What underdogs will emerge and steal our hearts?

The star power will be on full display with the likes of Juju Watkins, Flauâjae Johnson, Hannah Hidalgo, Paige Bueckers, Kiki Iriafen, Lauren Betts, Madison Booker, MiLaysia Fulwiley, TaâNiya Latson, Aziaha James, Kiki Rice and many more.

There are so many things to consider, especially when you factor in the scoring of our Opta Analyst Predictor Bracket, which rewards you for nailing upset picks.

The scoring system is based on our supercomputer running simulations of the 2025 NCAA Tournament to determine how likely it is that a particular team will reach a particular round. If you pick a team that has a 70% chance of advancing past the first round and that team wins, youâll receive 30 points (100% minus the percentage chance your selection will advance). If it has a 45% chance of advancing past the second round to the Sweet 16 and again advances, youâll get 55 points. If it has a 20% chance of reaching the Elite Eight and you get that pick right, youâll get 80 points. With that in mind, Iâve highlighted some upset picks that could get you plenty of points if they come through.

Selection Sunday should be a national holiday. Weâll get to working on that. In the meantime, here are my absolutely biased opinions.

Regional 1 â Spokane

My 2 Cents: UCLA, fresh off a Big Ten conference tournament win over USC, is the heavy favorite. The combo of Kiki Rice and Lauren Betts anchors the Bruins. Betts finished in the top five in the Big Ten in scoring, rebounds and blocks per game. If we look ahead at the national championship game. UCLA versus South Carolina could be a buzz-worthy matchup in Tampa.

NC State could make a deep run, but the big question for me is Aziah Jamesâ health. She was getting buckets versus Duke in the ACC tournament and it seemed like NC Stateâs game to lose when she took a hard fall along the baseline. She returned in the second half, but the team could not recover.

NC State with a healthy version of her is lethal. Saniya Rivers boasts WNBA talent. Zoe Brooks is a consistent combo guard. NC Stateâs guard play is phenomenal, but the team is extremely young and vulnerable inside. NC State’s greatest asset is breaking people down 1-on-1, which can also be the team’s greatest weakness at times when ball movement is key.

Dark Horse: Florida State. TaâNiya Latson is a walking bucket and doesnât get enough national attention. Combine that with what Makayla Timpson can do inside and that makes for a dangerous duo. I think the Seminoles have the toughness and just enough star power to take on LSU.

First Round

No. 1 UCLA over No. 16 UC San Diego
No. 9 Georgia Tech over No. 8 Richmond
No. 5 Ole Miss over No. 12 Ball State
No. 4 Baylor over No. 13 Grand Canyon
No. 6 Florida State over No. 11 George Mason
No. 3 LSU over No. 14 San Diego State
No. 10 Harvard over No. 7 Michigan State
No. 2 NC State over No. 15 Vermont

Second Round

No. 1 UCLA over No. 9 Georgia Tech
No. 5 Ole Miss over No. 4 Baylor
No. 6 Florida State over No. 3 LSU
No. 2 NC State over No. 10 Harvard

Sweet 16

No. 1 UCLA over No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 2 NC State No. 2 6 Florida State

Elite Eight

No. 1 UCLA over No. 2 NC State

Regional 4 â Spokane

My Two Cents: USC vs. UConn in the Elite Eight seems like something that should be happening in the Final Four. It is the JuJu vs. Paige rematch. Back in December, USC came out on top and Juju won the head-to-head matchup against Paige. While JuJu finished with 25 points and Paige 22, Watkinsâ overall stats were more impressive and efficient across the board. What Iâm most excited to see with this potential matchup is how UConn game plans against the Trojans.

The top scorers in the Women's NCAA Tournament

Coach Geno Auriema and the Huskies, who won the Big East tourney, are hungry for revenge and a trip to the Final Four. USC failed to make it to the Final Four last season and is riding the wave of putting the Trojans back on the womenâs basketball map as the historical powerhouse it is.

But hereâs the plot twist; March is about our hearts. Iâm a California Golden Bear, and USC has been a deep-seeded rival for years in the Pac-12. Iâm going with my Bears, with one of the best 3-point shooting duoâs in the country, to take down USC on their home court. And picking Cal to win in the second round could give me 89 points compared to the 22 points Iâd get for going chalk with USC. So the scoring rewards me following my heart.

Worst case, JuJu vs. Paige rematch. Iâll settle for that if needed. Iâm calling Iowa over Oklahoma and looking forward to seeing Hannah Stuelke and Raegan Beers go at it.

First Round

No. 1 USC over No. 16 UNC Greensboro
No. 8 California over No. 9 Mississippi State
No. 5 Kansas State over No. 12 Fairfield
No. 4 Kentucky over No. 13 Liberty
No. 6 Iowa over No. 11 Murray State
No. 3 Oklahoma over No. 14 FGCU
No. 10 South Dakota State over No. 7 Oklahoma State
No. 2 UConn over No. 15 Arkansas State

Second Round

No. 8 California over No. 1 USC (Please basketball Gods!)
No. 4 Kentucky over No. 5 Kansas State
No. 6 Iowa over No. 3 Oklahoma
No. 2 UConn over No. 10 South Dakota State

Sweet 16

No. 4 Kentucky over No. 8 California
No. 2 UConn over No. 6 Iowa

Elite Eight

No. 2 UConn over No. 4 Kentucky

Regional 2 â Birmingham

My Two Cents: South Carolina. Dawn Staley. Thatâs it. Perhaps the committee thought the previous national champions needed a bit of motivation in giving the Bruins the No. 1 overall seed. A chip on the Gamecocks’ shoulder, perhaps. March is March so nothing is promised, but it looks like South Carolinaâs Final Four opportunity to lose. What Dawn has built from the ground up while delivering sustained success should absolutely be heralded.

The probabilities of the top teams to win the championship in the Women's Tournament

Iâm picking Vanderbilt as a sleeper to upset No. 2 Duke. Shae Ralph has led the team to back-to-back tournament appearances, she knows end of game situations well and they could make some noise. Duke, while solid defensively, has struggled at times to consistently knock down open shots. The Blue Devils are led by one of the great basketball minds in Kara Lawson. I want this game to come down to a nailbiter of timeouts, great drawn-up plays, but ultimately players on the court being the deciding factor. When you factor in Vandy potentially getting me 62 points with a win over Duke in the Predictor Bracket, I think itâs worth taking a shot on the Commodores.

Also, North Carolina could give South Carolina a run for its money. The Tar Heels have solid guard play with Reniya Kellyâs midrange game, Lexi Donarskiâs 3-point shooting, and overall toughness with Alyssa Ustby. Theyâre also extremely well coached by Courtney Banghart.

First Round

No. 1 South Carolina over No. 16 Tennessee Tech
No. 9 Indiana over No. 8 Utah
No. 5 Alabama over No. 12 Green Bay
No. 4 Maryland over No. 13 Norfolk State
No. 6 West Virginia over No. 11 Washington
No. 3 North Carolina over No. 14 Oregon State
No. 7 Vanderbilt over No. 10 Oregon
No. 2 Duke over No. 15 Lehigh

Second Round

No. 1 South Carolina over No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Alabama over No. 4 Maryland
No. 3 North Carolina over No. 6 West Virginia
No. 7 Vanderbilt over No. 2 Duke

Sweet 16

No. 1 South Carolina over No. 5 Alabama
No. 3 North Carolina over No. 7 Vanderbilt

Elite Eight

No. 1 South Carolina over No. 3 UNC

Regional 3 â Birmingham

My Two Cents: TCU has had an awesome year, and with Madison Conner, Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince, theyâre boasting an impressive Big 3 right now. Prince is a large target down low but can also step outside, making her a unique weapon. I would love to see a Texas vs TCU matchup in the Elite Eight, but I donât think itâs going to happen because of the Fighting Irish.

They did not finish the season on a high note, ending on a 3-2 record heading into Selection Sunday after being so dominant. Sometimes those losses are just what you need to remind you that rankings of the past donât matter. Youâve got to show up every single night. Unfortunately, watching Texas play South Carolina gave me pause about them.

Is it fair to measure the Longhorns up against the defending champs? Absolutely. Because at some point, Texas canât only hang its hat on defense. It will only take the Longhorns so far.

There are too many high-octane players and programs out there. Youâve got to score. Madison Booker cannot do it alone and the team’s offensive production is too unpredictable. Maybe the Longhorns actually have the biggest chip on their shoulder. Iâm actually going to call it a three-way tie between Texas, Notre Dame and TCU. They all have a lot to prove under the bright lights of March.

First Round

No. 1 Texas over No. 16 High Point
No. 8 Illinois over No. 9 Creighton
No. 5 Tennessee over No. 12 South Florida
No. 4 Ohio State over No 13 Montana State
No. 6 Michigan over No. 11 Princeton
No. 3 Notre Dame over No. 14 SF Austin
No. 7 Louisville over No. 10 Nebraska
No. 2 TCU over No. 15 FDU