Clash of the Titans: Can the Cowboys or Lions Seize the Playoff Lifeline?

Here we are, teetering on the edge of the playoff abyss – Dallas and Detroit, two teams whose fates hang by the slimmest of threads. A victory? It won’t exactly punch their tickets to postseason glory, but a loss? Oh, that would be a knockout punch, sending their playoff dreams into quicksand. It’s one of those moments in sports where you ask yourself: can these teams handle the pressure cooker, or will the weight of the stakes crush them? Detroit’s got the historical upper hand from last season’s 47-9 mauling, and the supercomputer has even put its money on the Lions for a narrow edge. Meanwhile, Dallas sneaks in with a sizzling offense and a schedule that’s kinder than Detroit’s brutal road ahead. It’s a chess match on turf with everything on the line — but who’s really poised to seize the moment when the rubber meets the road? Dive into the numbers, the narratives, and the nuances of this clash where every play counts, and every mistake could be fatal. LEARN MORE.

While a victory by no means guarantees a playoff spot for either Dallas or Detroit, a loss would likely be a deathblow and too much for either team to overcome.

Cowboys vs. Lions: The Key Stats

The Lions are favored to defeat the Cowboys, winning 57.4% of pregame simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
The Lions routed the Cowboys 47-9 last season, ending a six-game losing streak in the series. It was Detroit’s largest margin of victory in 32 all-time meetings.
The Lions’ Jameson Williams averages 8.7 yards after the catch – the highest among the 58 receivers who have been targeted at least 50 times.

Now that the calendar has flipped to December, we are just over five weeks away from the start of the playoffs.

For the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5) to make the playoffs, a win is all but essential in Thursday night’s matchup at Ford Field.

Heading into Week 14, the Lions and Cowboys are both just outside the playoff cutoff, with Detroit the first team out and Dallas right behind them. The Opta supercomputer has calculated the Lions’ probability of making the playoffs at 44.8% (the eighth highest among NFC teams as of Wednesday) – with the Cowboys’ odds at 23.7%.

Dallas, however, has looked like a playoff contender in recent weeks, having won three in a row with its last two victories coming against last season’s Super Bowl participants.

Detroit, meanwhile, is scuffling, having lost two of three with the lone victory coming against the two-win New York Giants … at home … in overtime.

Beginning this week, the Cowboys also have the third-easiest remaining schedule (.393 opponent winning percentage), while the Lions own the seventh hardest (.575), so a path to the playoffs is certainly there for Dallas, especially with a victory in a head-to-head meeting.

And while a win by no means guarantees a playoff spot, a loss would likely be a deathblow and too much for either team to overcome.

Cowboys’ Key to Victory vs. Lions

With a 31-28 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thanksgiving, Dallas moved over .500 for the first time this season. The victory was the Cowboys’ third in 11 days after they won only three games in their first 73 days of the season.

Dak Prescott enjoyed another stellar passing day, completing 27 of 39 passes for 320 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for a 100.4 QB rating. CeeDee Lamb caught seven passes for 112 receiving yards with a touchdown and George Pickens hauled in six balls for 88 yards.

With 25 touchdown passes, Prescott is tied with the Lions’ Jared Goff for second in the NFL.

In winning its last three games, Dallas has been on a tear offensively, scoring 33, 24 and 31 points while averaging a league-leading 437.0 yards since Week 11.

While the Cowboys also had one of the league’s top offenses before their Week 10 bye (fourth in scoring at 29.2 and fourth in total offense at 378.4), there’s been a distinct change with the pass plays called and as a result, the passing game has been more efficient.

Through their first nine games before a Week 10 bye, no team ran more drop-back pass plays than Dallas’ 158. Drop backs were called on 43.1% of passing plays, but since the bye, the Cowboys are calling drop back passes just 27.4% of the time. (In the last three weeks, their 31 drop-back passes are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the sixth fewest.)

The cutback in drop backs has opened the door for more play-action passes, and those calls have led to huge gains. Since Week 11, Dallas has called for play-action on 23.0% of passing plays – up from 13.1% – and is averaging 14.2 yards on those plays – an increase of 2.3 yards.

The Cowboys are also averaging 2.1 yards more on quick-pass concepts in the last three weeks than before their bye.

Prescott has been magnificent in play-action passes since the bye, completing 28 of 36 (77.8%) for 421 yards with four touchdowns and an interception for a sizzling 152.4 passer rating.

He has targeted Pickens 11 times, with the first-year Cowboy catching seven balls for 163 yards with a touchdown, while Lamb has caught six of eight targets for 111 yards with a TD. Tight end Jake Ferguson also has six catches for 45 yards on play-action passes in the last three weeks.

While the Cowboys have been employing more play-action with greater success in recent weeks, Lamb and Pickens have been two of the top receivers in getting open downfield on such plays since the start of the season.

burn yards per target — ***(Minimum 13 targets)***

With a change to the passing game, the offense has become more explosive. Since Week 11, the Cowboys are averaging a league-high 8.1 yards per pass and achieving successful passing plays an NFL-best 49.6% of the time. Through 10 weeks, Dallas averaged 6.8 yards per pass and registered successful passing plays 44.7% of the time – 11th in the NFL.

Opportunities should be there for Prescott and company against Detroit’s vulnerable pass defense.

Since Week 10, the Lions have surrendered an NFL-worst 18 passing plays of 20 or more yards while opposing quarterbacks have registered a league-high 106.8 passer rating. Sure, two of those games came against Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love, but the other two came against Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.

Lions’ Key to Victory vs. Cowboys

While the Cowboys may boast the NFL’s top receiver tandem in Lamb and Pickens, the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are widely considered the league’s best running back duo.

Gibbs averages a league-high 5.82 yards per carry and ranks fourth in the NFL with 1,019 rushing yards, and coupled with Montgomery’s 543 yards, Detroit is the only team with two backs combining for more than 1,500 yards.

It certainly helps when you have right tackle Penei Sewell, who leads our player ratings in both pass (93.7) and run blocking (98.3) among all offensive linemen.

The ground game, however, struggled to get in gear in the Lions’ 31-24 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. Gibbs ran for 68 yards on 20 carries and Montgomery gained 32 yards on his eight rushes. And getting it untracked won’t be easy against Dallas.

In their three games since acquiring star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, the Cowboys rank second in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 69.7 rushing yards per game. Through Week 10, Dallas ranked 28th in run defense at 143.3 yards per game.

In facing an imposing run defense, Detroit’s best chance for success will come through the air and the arm of Goff, who ranks sixth in the NFL with 3,025 yards passing.

Yes, Goff’s offensive line struggled to protect him against Green Bay’s pass rush and he’ll likely be without his top two targets in wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta, but he was without them for most of last Thursday’s game and was able to move the Lions down the field.

It also helped that Jameson Williams stepped up with a career game.

Four days after he didn’t catch a pass and was targeted on just three of 44 routes run in Detroit’s 34-27 win over the Giants, Williams caught seven of 10 passes thrown his direction for a career-high 144 yards with a touchdown. He had four receptions for at least 20 yards in just his third game of the season with more than four receptions.

With LaPorta already on injured reserve because of a back injury, St. Brown appeared in just four offensive plays against the Packers before getting his ankle rolled up on. It looked like it would be a long day for Goff, as his first three passes fell incomplete, but he regained his composure to finish 20 of 26 for 256 yards with two touchdowns for a 132.9 QB rating.

Without St. Brown, the Lions mixed up their passing attack, running fewer quick concepts (18.8% of passing plays called compared to 30.3% in Weeks 1-12) and more drop backs (46.9% of passing plays called compared to 32.4% in Weeks 1-12).

This decision was no major surprise, considering St. Brown is Goff’s top target on quick pass concepts (his 45 targets are tied for fifth in the NFL and more than triple Williams’ 14 targets), and the ball is more likely to go Williams’ way when Goff has a traditional drop back with 24 targets on such plays – one fewer than St. Brown.

Against Green Bay, Williams was targeted five times on drop backs, catching three passes for 54 yards. He registered four burns, and his burn percentage of 75.0 on drop-back passes this season is tied for third among the 40 receivers who have been targeted at least 24 times.

burn percentage — **(*minimum 24 targets*)**

On Thanksgiving, most of Williams’ receptions came with him streaking across the middle of the field, but his 22-yard touchdown came on a screen pass to the left sideline. Williams hauled in Goff’s pass 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage and immediately broke a tackle and then used his speed to break away from the defense and high step into the end zone.

He finished with 85 yards after the catch, and among the 58 receivers who have been targeted at least 50 times, no player averages more yards after the catch than Williams at 8.7.

Taking the field without a two-time All-Pro receiver in St. Brown isn’t ideal, but it’s next man up and Williams has proved he can be counted on to shoulder a bigger load in the offense and be a playmaker after making the catch.

With Gibbs and Montgomery likely finding little room to run behind a much-maligned offensive line facing a stout defensive front, Williams and the passing game will be the key to success for Detroit’s offense.

Detroit Lions Dallas Cowboys game-preview

Cowboys vs. Lions Prediction

Although the Cowboys are riding high and the Lions are sputtering a bit, the Opta supercomputer’s Lions vs. Cowboys prediction gives Detroit the edge, calculating its probability of winning at 57.4%.

The scale being tilted in the Lions’ favor likely comes down to the game being played at Ford Field, where Detroit is 4-2, while the Cowboys are 2-4 on the road.

In the last matchup of Week 6 of last season, the Lions cruised to a 47-9 beatdown at Dallas, ending a six-game losing streak in the series. It was Detroit’s largest margin of victory in 32 all-time meetings.

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