![Unlocking the Untold Secrets Behind [Article Topic]: What You Never Knew Could Change Everything](https://gameonbrain.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/unlocking-the-untold-secrets-behind-article-topic-what-you-never-knew-could-change-everything-150x150.jpg)
College Football Playoff Drama Heats Up: Which Teams Are Quietly Confident—and Who’s on the Brink?
So, the College Football Playoff selection committee has finally dropped its first rankings of the season, and boy, do they make you scratch your head a little. With the 12-team field set to be revealed in just a month, the committee’s playbook already shows a clear fondness for the Big 12, a noticeable cold shoulder to the ACC, and a perplexing dismissal of the Group of Five conferences. It’s like they’re tuning out the underdogs while handing the spotlight to the usual suspects. Now, with the regular season winding down and roughly 30 teams still dreaming of playoff glory, plus a handful clinging to long-shot hopes, the real question is: who’s cruising comfortably toward December’s dance, and who’s sweating through every snap? Let’s dive into the six tiers that map out this tangled playoff puzzle — because in this game, every week could rewrite the story. LEARN MORE.
The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first rankings this week. Heading into the weekend action, we’re looking into six tiers of teams that could make up the 12-team field come December.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will set the 12-team field in almost exactly a month, on Dec. 7. The committee released its first batch of rankings on Tuesday, making now a good time for stock-taking. We’ve finally gotten a firm sense of what committee members are thinking, and a few things are clear: They like the Big 12. They do not care for the ACC, nor for the Group of Five conferences as a whole. Everyone is shocked, I’m sure, by their ignorance of non-power conference teams.
With four weeks of regular-season football left, about 30 teams have a real shot at making the field, while another four have a plausible enough long-shot path that we shouldn’t toss them out completely.
Who fits into which group? I’ve tiered it out.
In Already, Barring an Act of God
These teams will play in the playoff unless they lose multiple complete shockers in November. Even then, some of them would have a chance to get in via conference championships.
Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M have roughly interchangeable resumes. None has lost a game, and there’s a fair chance that all three will get first-round byes, even as a loser of a conference title game. The Ole Miss has a loss (at Georgia) but is comfortably in the field because its not likely to lose two of three to The Citadel, Florida and Mississippi State. A 10-2 SEC team makes the field almost no matter what, and the Rebels’ good win against No. 12 Oklahoma provides extra cushion.
Win The Games You’re Supposed to Win
These teams need only to take care of standard business.
Alabama has a substantial chance of dropping another game between LSU, Oklahoma and a road Iron Bowl against an interim-coached Auburn. But the Tide would have to lose two of those games to have a credible chance at missing out.
Georgia is in a similar, though slightly weaker, spot by virtue of having a loss to the Tide. The Dawgs would have to lose twice in three games against Mississippi State, Texas and Georgia Tech (Let’s assume they’ll be OK against 1-7 Charlotte from the American). That could happen—Texas has high upside, and Georgia Tech has one loss—but you probably would not bet on it.
Texas Tech will essentially lock up a spot in the Big 12 Championship if it wins at home as a 10-point favorite against BYU on Saturday. If the Red Raiders do win that game, they’ll just have to win three more (against UCF, at West Virginia and perhaps against the same BYU team in the Big 12 title game) as at least a touchdown favorite. Tech has a ton of work still to do, but it’s all manageable work. They’d have to lose a significant upset to miss the field.
Oregon, with one loss, still has three non-gimmes left on its schedule: at Iowa this week, vs. USC at home in Week 13 and at Washington in Week 14. The former has an elite defense, and the latter two have excellent offenses. Still, the Ducks would have to lose two of those three games as touchdown-ish favorites in order to not make it.
Notre Dame has the simplest outlook of all: Win out, and you’re in. Don’t, and you’re out. The Irish should win comfortably against Navy, Syracuse and Stanford in three of their final four games. Their stiffest test is a trip to Pitt nextweek, as the Panthers remain in the hunt themselves. The selection committee has telegraphed that it would put in a 10-2 Notre Dame over a 10-2 Miami, even though the No. 18 Hurricanes beat the Irish back in Week 1. Notre Dame otherwise has a better resume.
Still Controlling Their Own Fate
These teams would all have to win at least one game as a serious underdog, and sometimes several, or they’d have to win multiple heavyweight fights. Doable, but hard!
BYU can probably win the Big 12 by winning one out of two games against Texas Tech, the second in the conference championship game. The committee seems high enough on the Big 12 that even if the unbeaten Cougars wound up losing two games, including the conference title game, they’d have a chance. (In this way, they’d be a similar case to 2024 SMU, which took a second loss in the ACC Championship to Clemson.) The Cougars will have to win at least one game they shouldn’t, though.
Texas is win-and-in, but that includes a trip to Georgia and a home game against Texas A&M. If the Horns can win both of those, they’ll not just be in, but hosting a first-round game. If not, though? It’s not good. This category is full of teams sitting on two losses and playing in either the Big Ten or SEC. Another loss probably sinks anyone but BYU, but it’s challenging to see how winning out wouldn’t get each of these teams a spot. Next week’s USC-Iowa game in Los Angeles could be a huge deal.
Win the ACC
The committee clearly is not impressed by this conference, making it likely that just one team, the champion, gets in. Virginia is unbeaten in conference play despite its one loss coming to ACC team NC State in a game that was, perversely, not a conference game. The ACC’s complex tiebreaker system has left UVA with the best shot to make the title game, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Duke jostling behind them, and SMU and Pitt with fairly remote chances. Miami’s chances are even more remote, with two conference losses already almost ensuring that the Canes, despite a No. 18 ranking, will be boxed out.
The Group of Five Hunt
- North Texas
- USF
- Memphis
- East Carolina
- Tulane
- San Diego State
- James Madison
The American Conference race is wide open, though North Texas has the best tiebreaker situation. USF and Memphis, the committee’s current most favored Group of Five team, are also in the race (East Carolina and Tulane are significant long shots). The most interesting question about the G5 race isn’t who will win the American, but whether there’s any chance that the level’s playoff representative won’t be that team.
I think there’s functionally no chance, but San Diego State of the Mountain West and JMU of the Sun Belt have remote possibilities. The American is by far the strongest G5 conference this year, and one of its contenders, USF, started the season by beating MWC standard-bearer Boise State 34-7. The Broncos have lost three games and eliminated themselves, and the conference’s lone one-loss team is San Diego State, which has an elite defense. The problem? SDSU’s best win is against Cal or Fresno State, and the decline of Boise State will make any future wins the Aztecs get over the Broncos less impressive, particularly with Boise QB Maddux Madsen now injured. SDSU would have to go 12-1, win the Mountain West and hope that the American champ winds up with at least three losses.
James Madison is an excellent team that should roll to the Sun Belt title, but it won’t have a power conference win, and the SBC is weak. The Dukes would need carnage in the American.
Nominally Alive If Things Got Real Weird
- Utah (13)
- Missouri (22)
- Cincinnati
The committee really likes Utah, but the Utes just won’t have any chances to move that much farther up the board from the No. 13 spot. Closing games against three Big 12 teams with a combined 14-13 record will not do the trick for a team that got beaten up by Texas Tech and lost to BYU.
Missouri winning out would mean a 10-2 record with wins over Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Normally, that would be enough. But it’s not likely, and an injury to starting QB Beau Pribula introduces the possibility that the committee would leave out the Tigers even if they finished the year on a perfect roll.
Cincinnati still has a slim, tiebreaker-aided path to the Big 12 title. You can safely ignore the Bearcats for now, but leave them on the back burner just in case.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post College Football Playoff Tiers, One Month Out: Who’s Comfortable and Who’s Not? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
CHECK OUT THE HOTTEST DEALS ON AMAZON!
2025 Panini Donruss Elite Football Trading Cards Blaster Box
$38.30 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2024 Topps Chrome Update Series Baseball Mega Box
$153.95 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
2025 Panini Donruss Football Trading Cards Tin
$14.99 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
DREAM LOT OF OLD UNOPENED BASKETBALL CARDS IN PACKS 60 Cards in Packs from the Late 80s and Early 90s
$20.99 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Bowman Series 16 Card Team Set made by Topps Featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto Plus Rookies and Prospect Cards
$24.99 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Assorted Basketball Cards 100-Count (1980s to The Present) Plus 2 Memorabilia Cards - Verified Basketball Card Packs from Licensed Manufacturers and Brands – No Two Packs are The Same
$16.49 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2025 Topps Complete Mint 33 Card Team Set Featuring Shohei Ohtani Cards 1 and 400, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts with 7 Rookie Cards including River Ryan and Roki Sasaki Plus
$49.99 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
New 2025 ToppsBaseball HOLIDAY Advent Calendar Box - Plus Custom Shohei Ohtani Card-Sized Print
$119.95 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
NEW 2025-26 TOPPSBasketball Card HANGER Box w/59Cards, Bonus Custom Cooper Flagg Card Sized Print
$39.95 (as of November 6, 2025 00:02 GMT +00:00 - More infoProduct prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on [relevant Amazon Site(s), as applicable] at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.)
Post Comment