College Football Playoff Rivals: Which Underdogs Could Shock the Nation and Secure Their Spot?

The model isn’t just throwing darts at the wall, either. In every Playoff season until last year’s snub of FSU in favor of a one-loss Alabama, the committee has aligned perfectly with the model’s year-end Playoff potential scores.

Here’s how our model views the field stacking up over the next three and a half months. They’re strictly projections now. As they become real, they’ll be a good indicator of the field. 

Playoff Potential Ratings: The Top 12 (xWins/Playoff Potential)

1. Georgia Bulldogs (10.0/99.7)
2. Oregon Ducks (10.0/98.4)
3. Texas Longhorns (9.2/93.9)
4. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9.5/90.7)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (9.4/90.3)
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (8.6/86.8)
7. LSU Tigers (8.7/85.9)
8. Kansas Jayhawks (9.5/85.8)
9. Penn State Nittany Lions (8.9/83.3)
10. Ole Miss Rebels (8.8/79.6)
11. Missouri Tigers (9.0/77.9)
12. Texas A&M Aggies (8.4/74.1)

Mostly, the preseason Playoff potential projections align with the preseason Associated Press Top 25. That isn’t a surprise. But two things jump out quickly about TRACR’s view of things. 

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