Colts vs. Chargers Showdown: Will Indy’s Star Taylor Outshine LA’s Mysterious New Weapon?
Here we go — a real heavyweight clash brewing this Sunday as two AFC powerhouses, the surprising Colts and the seasoned Chargers, lock horns at SoFi Stadium. Now, here’s a little head-scratcher for ya: How often do you see a team like the Colts, who’ve been historically shaky against the Chargers (just 2 wins in 10 tries since 2005), rise to lead their division — and then travel to face a Chargers squad that’s chalked up a solid 4-0 mark against conference foes? Add to that a streak of 59 consecutive scoring drives in the red zone for Indy — nearly historic stuff — and you’ve got a recipe that’s as intriguing as it is intense. This isn’t just another Sunday game; it’s a pivotal moment in the 2025 NFL campaign where momentum, legacy, and playoff positioning hang in the balance. Buckle up, because the gridiron chess match between Indy’s relentless offense and LA’s home-field prowess is more than just stats — it’s a narrative in the making.
Two teams that are on the rise and sitting atop their respective divisions square off Sunday, with the Colts visiting the Chargers in one of the biggest games of the NFL slate.
Colts vs. Chargers: The Key Stats
- The Los Angeles Chargers are favored to beat the Indianapolis Colts, winning 55.1% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Since 2005, the Colts are 2-8 against the Chargers – that .200 winning percentage is their lowest against any AFC team in that span.
- The Colts have scored points on their last 59 red-zone drives – one shy of the 2013-14 Denver Broncos for the longest such streak by any team in the last 30 years.
Six weeks into the 2025 NFL season, and the AFC is as wide open as ever with some regular contenders looking vulnerable – as well as looking up in the standings.
Two teams, however, that are on the rise and sitting atop their respective divisions square off Sunday, with the Indianapolis Colts visiting the Los Angeles Chargers.
While some view the 5-1 Colts as being the biggest surprise in football, the Opta supercomputer did predict them to be a playoff team before the start of the season. The same goes for the 4-2 Chargers, though admittedly, we pegged both as wild-card teams and not division winners.
Not only are both the Colts and Chargers current division leaders, but they are also the only two AFC teams that have gone 4-0 in intraconference games – making this matchup crucial for potential playoff tiebreakers down the road.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Thursday night loss in the books, the supercomputer has calculated the Chargers have a 66.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 36.0% chance of winning the AFC West – just a smidge better than the Kansas City Chiefs’ odds at 35.2%.
The Colts’ likelihood of winning their respective division is similar to the Chargers at 30.8%, though the supercomputer sees the Jacksonville Jaguars ending up with the AFC South crown, calculating their odds at 63.2%. With only one loss on its record, though, Indianapolis has an 81.3% chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Colts are now returning to the site of their lone blemish – a 27-20 setback to the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium in Week 4.
Colts’ Key to Victory vs. Chargers
Indianapolis has been on another level offensively. The team is first in offensive points scored (187), first in successful play percentage (57.2) and first in scoring efficiency (62.5), just to name a few impressive stats.
While first-year Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has amassed a higher passer rating (104.4) than reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen (103.1), Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts (100.2) and two-time league MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes (99.0), Jonathan Taylor is the engine of Indy’s offense.
Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (603), rushing TDs (seven) and runs of 10 or more yards (15). He’s also one of just six players in the last 70 years with at least 600 rushing yards, 20 receptions and seven rushing TDs through six games, joining Christian McCaffrey (2019), Todd Gurley II (2018), Ahman Green (2003), Priest Holmes (2002) and Emmitt Smith (1995).
While Taylor is widely considered among the top running backs in the NFL, his offensive line has also played a big part in the two-time Pro Bowler’s success this season.
Indy’s O-line has been relatively healthy with center Tanor Bortolini, guards Quenton Nelson and Matt Goncalves and tackles Bernhard Raimann and Braden Smith lining up together 284 times this season and in all 59 snaps in last Sunday’s 31-27 home win over the Arizona Cardinals.
Cohesiveness on the line is obviously instrumental to a team’s success, and Indy’s line is creating massive holes for Taylor, helping him average a league-leading 3.48 yards before contact.
Timing is key to running a trap play, and the Colts are excelling at having their guards pull to open a lane with Taylor averaging an absurd 8.73 yards before contact and 10.36 yards on such plays. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14) have run more trap plays than Indy’s 12.
The Colts line up in a 113 package 56.2% of the time on offense, but while that formation usually indicates a pass, that’s not the case with Indianapolis. The Colts run the ball a league-high 41.7% of the time in a 113 look, with the NFL average at just 28.7%.
Taylor’s 60 carries out of a 113 personnel are the fourth most in the NFL, and his average of 4.08 yards before contact ranks third out of the 29 running backs with at least 20 carries on such plays.
Handing the ball off to Taylor in a 113 set should again work in Indy’s favor, as Los Angeles is struggling to stop the run – especially out of a 113 personnel. The Chargers are permitting a league-worst 4.4 yards before contact on running plays in that formation; the league average is 3.1.
Los Angeles has struggled against the run regardless of how the opposition has lined up, as its 5.03 yards allowed per rush ranks 28th and its 25 runs of 10+ yards allowed are tied with the New York Giants for fourth-most surrendered.
Chargers’ Key to Victory vs. Colts
It’s next man up in the NFL, and Kimani Vidal assumed that role in the Chargers’ 29-27 road win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
With leading rusher Omarion Hampton landing on injured reserve before Week 6, Vidal took over as the team’s lead back despite carrying the ball a mere four times through the first five weeks.
All Vidal did was rush 18 times for 124 yards and catch another three passes for 14 yards with a touchdown from Justin Herbert. He had four runs go for at least 10 yards and wasn’t tackled once behind the line of scrimmage. Not bad for the second-year back out of Troy in his first career NFL start.
kimani vidal's first nfl touch is a td
| @nfloncbs pic.twitter.com/D8GD2ZOroo
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) October 13, 2024
|
At 5-foot-8, Vidal stands four inches shorter than Hampton, and Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman shook up the offense with the undersized Vidal in the backfield.
After running plays with a 131 personnel just three times in the first five weeks, they ran with this set 16 times against the Dolphins, keeping the ball on the ground on 12 of those plays. Roman kept Miami completely off balance by calling various run concepts out of the same 131 personnel. The Chargers ran iso three times, power, duo and inside zone twice, and an outside zone, a belly and a QB sneak once.
The Dolphins loaded up their defense close to the line of scrimmage when the Chargers came out in 131 personnel, stacking eight defenders in the box on 15 of those 16 plays.
But that didn’t stop Vidal. Out of 131 personnel, he got the ball on a handoff seven times and busted through Miami’s defense, averaging 7.14 yards with 5.43 yards coming before contact.
In all, he ran the ball 11 times Sunday against a defense with at least eight men in the box, and he averaged 10.0 yards on those plays – the second-highest average against a loaded defense in a game this season (minimum six carries).
Vidal showed what he’s capable of and found room to run against a team that brought extra defenders close to the line of scrimmage, and he’ll face another defense that uses a similar strategy.
The Colts defense brings an extra man into the box 53.6% of the time – the league’s eighth-highest rate, with the NFL average at 46.7.
Colts vs. Chargers Prediction
It’s been 17 years since the Colts won a road game against the Chargers, and the Opta supercomputer’s NFL picks show that streak extending.
Most betting sites list Los Angeles as a slight favorite and the supercomputer predicts the Chargers have a 55.1% chance of winning their fourth straight home game over Indianapolis since Adam Vinatieri kicked a 51-yard field goal as time expired to give the Colts a 23-20 victory at San Diego in Week 12 of 2008.
These teams haven’t met since Week 16 of 2022, with the Chargers holding the Nick Foles-led Colts to 173 total yards in a 20-3 victory. Dating to 2005, Indianapolis is 2-8 against the Chargers, with two of those defeats coming in the playoffs – that .200 winning percentage is its lowest against any AFC team over that stretch.
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The post Colts vs. Chargers Prediction: Who Will Have the Edge Between Indy’s Taylor and LA’s Unheralded New Back? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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