Conference USA 2025: Which Dark Horse Team Could Shock the League and Claim the Title?
Conference USA is stepping into 2025 with a lineup as unpredictable as a last-second Hail Mary—especially after Jacksonville State and Liberty each took some pretty serious hits. The defending champs at Jacksonville State watched their head coach and key players bolt, while Liberty not only had an off year but also saw their star quarterback jet off to Colorado. Toss in a couple of fresh faces—Delaware and Missouri State jumping up from the FCS ranks—and suddenly, we’re left wondering: who’s primed to seize the spotlight in this freshly shuffled deck? This isn’t just another college football season; it’s a gripping drama where teams can climb from obscurity to championship contention in the blink of an eye—or fall just as fast. What does the crystal ball of Opta’s TRACR model predict for this rollercoaster of a conference? Let’s dive deep with the notes, data, and forecasts that break down whether Conference USA’s next chapter will thrill, choke, or shock us all. LEARN MORE.
Jacksonville State and Liberty have taken big hits. So where does that leave Conference USA? We break it all down with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions.
Conference USA has a fresh look in more ways than one.
The league’s defending champ, Jacksonville State, lost its head coach and then saw its roster flip over. The best program in the league, Liberty, had a lousy year and then lost its star quarterback to Colorado.
The league is adding two new teams from the FCS ranks: Delaware and Missouri State.
CUSA is one of college football’s most upwardly mobile leagues, in that it doesn’t take long for a team with a talented nucleus to go from the bottom of the standings to the conference championship game.
It’s also not hard to go the other way.
What does the Opta supercomputer see for Conference USA in 2025? It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.
The supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.
Here’s a preseason field guide to the conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their league TRACR ranking.
Conference USA Projected Records
1. Jacksonville State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st
One scary thing: When Rich Rodriguez left after winning the conference title last year, he took some players to West Virginia in the Big 12, and much of the roster just fell apart. If Marshall wasn’t undergoing the same process in the Sun Belt, I’d write here that we’ve never seen a conference champion go through an offseason demolition quite like this one. Nearly everything will be new.
One exciting thing: I’ll be fascinated to see how new head coach Charles Kelly runs his operation. Kelly has been an assistant all over the big-time programs of the South. A long-ago Jax State assistant, he did tours with Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban (among others) before getting his first head coaching job at 57. A crack at Liberty in Week 2 will be a chance to make an impression.
Player to watch: WR Michael Pettway, the team’s second-leading receiver last year with 454 yards, is one of the few notable returning starters. He had a 68.2% burn rate, 7 points better than the team’s average, and will get lots of looks from former Rutgers and Kentucky QB Gavin Wimsatt.
(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)
2. Louisiana Tech
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th
One scary thing: Other than tight end Eli Finley, is there a playmaker on the offense who can make a difference for QB Evan Bullock? A tiny 2.1% pickable pass rate last year sparkled, but an 8.1% explosive play rate on passes was third-lowest in CUSA.
One exciting thing: Sonny Cumbie’s defense might be the best in the conference. Last year, the Bulldogs led CUSA with a 34.4% success rate allowed and a 5.9% explosive play rate allowed. Most of the top tacklers from that unit are gone, but a few of its best players remain.
Player to watch: Linebacker Kolbe Fields, a second-team all-conference linebacker who created a team-leading 27 run disruptions. He previously played at LSU and South Carolina but has found a nice home in Ruston.
3. Western Kentucky
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd
One scary thing: A defense that already wasn’t good is now down its top 12 tacklers and leaning on a ton of portal additions to reach the level of “passable.”
One exciting thing: Few programs have had more success with transfer QBs (and coordinators, and wide receivers) the past few years than WKU. I expect Abilene Christian (and former Texas Tech) QB Maverick McIvor to join Bailey Zappe and Austin Reed in this tradition.
Player to watch: 5-foot-8 slot receiver KD Hutchinson was open on 93.5% of his targets last year, one of the highest marks in FBS and easily the highest in CUSA. He returns for coach Tyson Helton’s squad.
4. Liberty
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th
One scary thing: Quarterback Ethan Vasko, a Coastal Carolina transfer, is the least exciting prospect Liberty has had at the position in a long time. He replaces Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado. He reunites with former coach Jamey Chadwell, but I’m usually skeptical of QBs making big leaps in their third year as a starter.
One exciting thing: The Flames should have the best defensive line in the conference, headlined by edge rusher CJ Bazile (a team-leading 14.6% pressure rate) and nose tackle Bryce Dixon (15 run stuffs).
Player to watch: CB Brylan Green played 179 pass coverage snaps last year and only saw 15 targets come his way, an 8.4% rate that tells the story of how badly offenses wanted to avoid him.
5. Sam Houston
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd
One scary thing: The Bearkats are certain to regress from their 10-win 2024. They won every close game they played, benefited from good fortune in the turnover department, lost a bunch of their best players in the transfer portal, lost their head coach, and only have a couple of offensive contributors back. New coach Phil Longo would do an amazing job to win six games.
One exciting thing: Receiver Qua’Vez Humphreys is a lot of fun, and he returns. Humphreys averaged a 17-yard target depth on 46 targets, roughly 7 yards farther downfield than any other Bearkat. Quarterback Hunter Watson is also back to throw him the rock.
Player to watch: Two of them: Offensive linemen Rhett Lawson and James Dawn are preseason all-conference players. Dawn allowed a 1.9% pressure rate to lead the offensive line last year.
6. Delaware
- 2024 final TRACR rank: N/A
One scary thing: The same as every team that makes the move to FBS: Moving from 63 to 85 scholarships almost always creates a Year 1 depth challenge for a team coming from FCS. In recent years, only James Madison has made the jump without getting at least a taste of that problem.
One exciting thing: Well, it’s the move to FBS. The Hens were a well-funded FCS operation, and I think they could be pretty good pretty quickly.
Player to watch: TE Caleb Fauria was third-team All-CAA Football last year in FCS and should be one of the leaders on an offense that will start six or seven seniors. If you noticed a tight end named Fauria and your eyebrow went up, he is indeed the son of two-time Patriots Super Bowl winner Christian.
7. FIU
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th
One scary thing: For the second year in a row, FIU’s best player got plucked away in the transfer portal. This year it was WR Eric Rivers, who went to Georgia Tech and took his 1,200 yards and 12 TDs with him.
One exciting thing: QB Keyone Jenkins is the best returning passer in the conference. Of CUSA’s seven QBs to average at least a 10-yard target depth, Jenkins led in well-thrown rate at 78.9%. His 3.4% pickable pass rate was a point better than league average, and he limited his sacks, too.
Player to watch: Receiver Jojo Stone, a four-star recruit from the class of 2024 who spent last season at Louisville before joining new coach Willie Simmons here. Stone had tons of offers out of high school, and he’s still young with room to grow.
8. Missouri State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: N/A
One scary thing: The Bears don’t have as much money as Delaware, and I think the FBS transition will be much harder for them – in a million ways. This is the worst FCS program to take a crack at FBS this century, going by its winning percentage the previous five years.
One exciting thing: QB Jacob Clark, a senior who made second-team all-conference in the challenging Missouri Valley, is back. He could be one of CUSA’s better quarterbacks right away.
Player to watch: Redshirt junior WR Jmariye Robinson was a freshman All-American in FCS two years ago and followed it up with a 600-yard season in 2025. He’s listed at 165 pounds but makes plays.
9. UTEP
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th
One scary thing: Despite a talented pair of wide receivers (more on them shortly), UTEP had the third-lowest explosive play rate in the league at 6.7%. That’s mainly because the running game was the least explosive in the league at 2.9%. With no returning running backs who had more than six carries last year, it’s unclear if UTEP will figure out how to run the ball.
One exciting thing: The two leading returning receivers in Conference USA both play for the Miners. Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas combined for 1,200 yards and 10 scores, and they’ll get back together with Skyler Locklear, who showed good flashes at quarterback.
Player to watch: DT KD Johnson generated 13 QB pressures, second-most on the team, despite being stuck in the middle of the line. He’ll be important as UTEP tries to replace edge rusher Mo Westmoreland, whose 35 pressures and 11 adjusted sacks led the team by a mile. (Westmoreland’s transfer to Tulane is one of the more crushing departures any team in this league faces.)
10. Kennesaw State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th
One scary thing: There’s not just one. The Owls, despite upsetting Liberty, were arguably the second-worst team in FBS last year, ahead of only Kent State. New coach Jerry Mack will have time to set things right, but he might need a lot of it.
One exciting thing: KSU will look different, and some freshness will at least be fun to watch. After years of option-adjacent offensive ball under Brian Bohannon, Mack has signaled the Owls will move in a more up-tempo, spread-offense direction. Sometimes, a fresh coat of paint is nice.
Player to watch: Linebacker Donelius Johnson, the team leader with 89 tackles and 5.5 for loss, will again lead the defense. His 28 run stuffs nearly doubled anyone else’s total.
11. New Mexico State
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th
One scary thing: NMSU had the lowest passing success rate (28.6%) in the conference. The Aggies were unable to string together completions, and it kneecapped the offense. They’ve made a transfer portal swap at quarterback (more shortly) with an eye toward fixing that.
One exciting thing: Receiver PJ Johnson III was one of the most explosive receivers in the conference, posting a 42.9% big play rate on his 46 targets. He and TJ Pride, the top two receivers on this team, are both back to catch passes from Fresno State transfer QB Logan Fife.
Player to watch: Senior linebacker Tyler Martinez had 34 run disruptions and 29 stuffs last year, by far the highest figures on the team. He’s the key guy on a defense that didn’t play that badly.
12. Middle Tennessee
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th
One scary thing: The Blue Raiders went 3-9 and now lose by far their two best offensive weapons, WR Omari Kelly (transfer to Michigan State) and TE Holden Willis (out of eligibility). The source of skill-position playmaking on this team remains unknown.
One exciting thing: New starting running back Jekail Middlebrook only got 82 touches last year, but his 2.7 average yards after contact inspired confidence that he could be an upgrade on previous starter Jaiden Credle, who averaged 1.9.
Player to watch: LB Parker Hughes led the program with 10 run disruptions and 17 stuffs last year from his inside linebacker spot. His 69 tackles lead the returners. He’ll be the defense’s foundational player.
Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Conference USA Predictions: Who Will Win the New-Look League in 2025? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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