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Could a Running Back’s MVP Reign Be Imminent After Years of Quarterback Dominance?
Isn’t it curious how the NFL MVP trophy has dodged running backs like Jonathan Taylor for over a decade now? Since Adrian Peterson’s 2012 storming season, the honor has consistently favored quarterbacks, leaving even the most electrifying ground game performances somewhat in the shadows. But this season, Taylor isn’t just knocking politely—he’s banging hard on the door with numbers that scream historic: leading the league in rushing yards and touchdowns, clocking efficiencies that defy modern defensive setups, and backed by perhaps the best run-blocking squad in recent memory. Could this be the year we see a running back finally grab the MVP crown again, or is the league’s quarterback bias just too entrenched? Let’s dive deep into the stats, support cast, and sheer brilliance of a back who’s redefining what it means to dominate on the ground.
A running back hasn’t won the league’s MVP honors since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Should that change this season? Jonathan Taylor is making a strong case.
Even though Jonathan Taylor has powered the Indianapolis Colts to an impressive 8–2 start, the modern NFL just doesn’t give running backs a fair shot in the MVP race.
But that shouldn’t overshadow the fact that Taylor is having one of the best running back seasons in recent memory, and this includes Saquon Barkley’s magical 2024 campaign (third in MVP voting) and Christian McCaffrey’s tremendous 2023 season (also third).
This season, Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,139 and total touchdowns with 17. If he maintains this pace, Taylor will finish with 1,937 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns.
While his total yards would only be the 10th most in a single season, the touchdowns would be tied for second in NFL history. And if we add in total yards (Taylor is second on the year behind McCaffrey, who has 40 more scrimmage yards but has played one more game), Taylor is on pace for 2,378 yards and 29 total TDs, which projects to fifth and second all time, respectively.
Taylor’s rushing yards through 10 games are the league’s most since DeMarco Murray had 1,233 for the Dallas Cowboys in 2014. Barkley was just behind with 1,137, while Derrick Henry had 1,120 for the Baltimore Ravens through 10 games a year ago.
Volume alone would make this a historic season. But where Taylor truly separates himself is in his play-to-play efficiency and how the Colts are getting him there.
JT’s Insane Efficiency
From a pure metrics perspective, Taylor is crushing it.
Over the past three seasons, Taylor ranks No. 1 in yards per carry (6.03), No. 5 in yards before contact (3.80) and No. 5 in yards after contact (2.37). He’s also No. 1 in yards per carry on plays with run disruptions (4.63) among 69 running backs with at least 120 carries through Week 11.
He’s also third in missed or broken tackles forced per touch. This is all despite seeing a bad box on 52.4% of snaps.
But this doesn’t even tell the whole story of Taylor’s greatness in 2025.
Taylor has an absurd 275.48 rushing yards over expected (YOE), a metric that measures how many yards a player generates after his first interaction with a defender. That’s 275 yards generated on his own beyond what the play design and blocking provide.
That’s 112% more than the next-closest running back, De’Von Achane of the Miami Dolphins (129.62), and more than double Barkley’s total at this point this past year.
Are you curious where Barkley and McCaffrey are on this list? Barkley ranks 26th out of 43 qualified running backs, while McCaffrey ranks 43rd.
Taylor is even one of the elite backs in the passing game. While McCaffrey and Robinson rank first and second, respectively, Taylor isn’t far behind in YOE on receptions among running backs at No. 5.
So if we’re looking for a running back who does a lot of the work himself, Taylor is in another tier of his own.
Tremendous Supporting Cast
Taylor is playing behind the best run-blocking team in the NFL. The Colts’ 44.9% run success rate ranks first in the league by 2.1%, and the rushing yards per play of 5.5 is first by 0.6 yards.
Only two teams since 2016 have a better rushing success rate than the Colts do right now: The 2022 Philadelphia Eagles and the 2018 Los Angeles Rams.
Both made the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, only the Ravens from 2024 and 2020 had the same or more rushing yards per play than the Colts this season.
This is all thanks to the men up front – both among offensive linemen and tight ends.
Three of the Colts’ five linemen have a run-blocking grade of at least 86, led by guard Quenton Nelson (96.7) and tackle Bernhard Raimann (91.2). All five starters grade above 75.1, and all three tight ends rank top 25 at the position with grades above 73.
The result: Indianapolis averages a league-best 3.4 yards before contact, meaning the line is consistently creating massive lanes for Taylor.
This is a well-oiled machine, and it’s generating some sensational rushing numbers.
And while the Colts are easily the best rushing team in the league right now, the offense is still very balanced. Indianapolis’s 39.6% run rate ranks 16th in the NFL. The pass rate, meanwhile, is 17th.
Indiana Jones’ Role
Taylor is the engine that runs the offense, but Daniel Jones is the fuel that helps power it.
The former first-round castoff has revitalized his career in Indianapolis and is playing well enough under center to create an offense well-suited for a strong running game. He’s helped the Colts rank second in passing success rate and third in passing yards per play this year.
They are first in offensive EVE (efficiency versus expected) headed into a big test against the desperate Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.
Jones isn’t the star of the offense, but he’s giving Taylor everything he needs. He ranks top-five in completion rate and catchable-ball rate, gets the ball out in 2.65 seconds (13th fastest), and adds enough mobility to keep defenses honest.
Oddly, he’s struggled on play-action passes (53.1% completion rate), but the run game hasn’t suffered thanks to elite blocking and Taylor’s own creation ability.
Jones can also run if needed, which we know can truly unlock a great run game (see the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson or the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen). Jones isn’t comparable to those former MVPs, but he’s still managed 143 rushing yards and five touchdowns.
Taylor’s MVP Chances
Fine, we’ll talk about the MVP race again.
Taylor’s ridiculous season would need to reach stratospheric heights for him to take the MVP away from one of the top quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford (+140), Drake Maye (+190) and Josh Allen (+475) are the betting favorites to take home the award, with Taylor fourth (+700).
A running back hasn’t won the MVP Award since 2012, when Adrian Peterson did in a poor quarterback season. For Taylor to leap into the race, he’d likely need to topple LaDainian Tomlinson’s 31 touchdowns record and Eric Dickerson’s 2,105 rushing yards record.
It’s possible – he’s not far off pace – but the award is still a quarterback race. That shouldn’t diminish what Taylor is doing as he continues to redefine the ceiling for the position.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post Is It Time a Running Back Finally Wins the NFL’s MVP Award Again? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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