Could Colorado’s Surprising Rise Under Coach Prime Shake Up the CFP Race?

Here’s a question that might baffle even the savviest college football fans: How on earth did Colorado transform from a 4-8 afterthought into a team knocking on the College Football Playoff door, where wins over Kansas, a tanking Oklahoma State, and likely BYU could punch their ticket? It’s almost a paradox—last year, they were football’s hottest conversation despite sputtering on the field; now, quietly but decisively, they’re actually good. With two games left, the Buffaloes aren’t just dreaming—they control their destiny in the Big 12 Championship race, thanks to an offense that thunders despite a questionable line, a quarterback finding his groove amid chaos, and a two-way phenom who dares you to test him. Curious how this all came to be? Stick with me—it’s a story worth the deep dive. LEARN MORE.

How has Colorado worked its way to where wins over Kansas, Oklahoma State and (probably) BYU would land the Buffaloes in the College Football Playoff? We have some answers.

Call it the Colorado paradox.

In 2023, the Buffaloes were the biggest story in college football despite being a lousy team. A hot nonconference start in Deion Sanders’ first year at the helm had casual fans dreaming about Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter turning the Buffs into a championship contender.

CU then finished 4-8. 

This year, the Buffs are still a national story. Their games are still in premium national TV viewing windows, suggesting that network executives still believe in them. But Colorado is not nearly the object of viral debate and fascination that it was a year ago, despite one important fact: They are actually good now.

With two games left in the regular season, the Buffs control their own destiny for a spot in the Big 12 Championship. Whoever wins that game is almost (though not completely) certain to make the College Football Playoff. 

How has Colorado worked its way into this position, where wins against Kansas, a miserable Oklahoma State, and (probably) BYU would land the Buffaloes in the playoff? (Our projection model gives the Buffs a 22.5% chance of winning out.)

The answer has a few facets. 

1. A Bad Line But a Good Offense? Yeah. 

Colorado’s offensive line, often maligned since the Sanders’ arrival, has been awful for a second consecutive season. Varying pass and run numbers tell the same story: 

• Colorado only faces a blitz on 20.6% of its pass attempts, well below the Power Four average of 28.3%. But the Buffaloes allow a sack on 7.0% of their drop backs, compared to an average of 5.4%. The 16 power-conference teams that allow more frequent sacks all face more frequent blitzing. Sanders holds the ball a bit longer than the national average, but the heat he’s faced is not of his making.
• Colorado is miles below average in every stat that has anything to do with run blocking. The Buffs get 2.1 yards before contact per carry (Power Four average: 3.1), allow a 49.3% run disruption rate (average: 41.0%), and get 3.8 yards per run play (average: 5.1). There may not be a team in the power conferences with as well rounded a bad run game as Colorado has. 

Right tackle Phillip Houston has struggled in particular, letting up pressure on 14.8% of his pass-blocking snaps – fifth worst among Big 12 tackles with 100 or more snaps. The fault doesn’t lie with any one player, though, and is more the fault of Deion Sanders for relying heavily on the transfer portal to stitch together a unit with very little year-to-year continuity.

Injuries have also taken a toll, to the point that Colorado has given extensive snaps to a walk-on center, Cash Cleveland, who’s been a pleasant surprise. 

And yet! Colorado’s got a pretty effective offense. The Buffaloes’ lack of a run game and frequent sacks taken have set back their yards per play figures, but the offense knows how to wriggle out of trouble and put scoring drives together. (For example, they easily lead the Big 12 with 38.9 points per game in conference play despite their yards per play in the conference sitting 11th out of 16 teams at 5.84.) 

The Buffs’ gaudy point totals have gotten a bit of help from a couple of defensive touchdowns and a punt return touchdown by LaJohntay Wester last week against Utah. But they’ve got the most prolific scoring offense in Big 12 play all on its own, despite a line that can only be described as lousy. 

How? 

2. Shedeur, Travis, and… Pat Shurmur? 

Lots of discussion about Shedeur Sanders revolves around disagreements over what he should be. Granted, much of that is his dad’s doing.

Shedeur doesn’t have nationally elite numbers and has no plausible case for the Heisman Trophy, but Deion has pushed several times for his son’s inclusion as a finalist. The QB is also being evaluated as a likely first-round NFL pick next spring. 

Strip away the circus around Shedeur, however, and you’ve got a college QB who’s put up nice numbers behind a line that sometimes looks determined to get him decapitated. Sanders’ 82.0% well-thrown rate is the best among Big 12 starting QBs, as is his 1.3% pickable pass rate.

Sanders checks down 9.1% of the time, also the most among full-time Big 12 starters this season. But otherwise his numbers show few signs of coming from a quarterback playing behind one of the worst lines in the country. Nationally, he’s 19th in yards per throw (8.4) and 12th in passer rating. 

Sanders’ favorite wideout is also a cornerback. Travis Hunter has emerged as the Heisman front runner because he’s given the Buffs a quality No. 1 receiver while also being one of the best defensive backs in the country. Hunter has not been all that prolific a route runner, with a charted burn rate of a below-average 60.6% on his 94 targets.

But that target number is the key: No player in college football plays as much as Hunter does, and he’s still on his way to a 1,000-yard receiving season. The attention he attracts can be nothing but great for the other Colorado receivers. 

The best of those is Wester, who has been even better than Hunter as strictly a wideout. Wester’s most famous play of the year was the Hail Mary he hauled down from Sanders en route to beating Baylor in Week 4.

But he’s been rock-solid all year, putting up a team-best 73.2% burn rate (sixth in the Big 12 among those with at least 30 targets) and showing sure hands with all of two drops on 71 targets. Wester is a senior, as is Will Sheppard, who’s put up similar numbers and given Sanders three quality wideouts to target. 

Much of the credit for this offense should go to former NFL head coach Pat Shurmur, who’s put a lot of pieces together nicely despite the absence of the second-most important piece for any offense: a good line. Shurmur has had to design a functional passing game without a substantial running game, and with Colorado relatedly only seeing a heavy defensive box on 37.3% of its snaps. 

3. A Two-Way Player for the Ages 

Colorado’s defense isn’t the headlining part of this team. But it is where Hunter has gotten to show out the most. Hunter is a lockdown corner in every sense of the word: 

• Hunter’s 33.3% burn-allowed rate is fourth among Big 12 cornerbacks, despite, again, Hunter also playing an entire game’s worth of offensive snaps every week. 
• Hunter the cornerback is targeted just 12.7% of the time, compared to an average of about 18% for a Big 12 starting cornerback. Teams would rather just not go near him. 
• The average depth of target against Hunter is 9.7 yards, fifth shortest in the Big 12. Opponents have realized that if they must throw on Hunter, they shouldn’t try anything deep.

Hunter has managed to pick off three passes while only missing one interceptable opportunity. If a QB makes a big mistake around him, there’s a three-in-four chance he’ll pay dearly. 

4. A More Serious Defensive Front 

Hunter was already good in 2023, but the defense around him has made uniform strides forward too.

The Buffs have already gotten 20 takeaways in 10 games this season, matching their total in 12 last year (with Hunter landing three interceptions in both years). They’ve dropped their yards allowed per play from 6.3 to 5.2 while facing roughly the same percentage of run and pass plays over the two years.

Most of that improvement has come in the area Hunter has least to do with: rush defense. Colorado allowed an unpalatable 4.7 yards per rush last year and has nibbled down to 3.7 this year, with an even more dramatic improvement (4.6 to 3.5 yards allowed per carry) in this year’s Big 12 games compared to last year’s in the Pac-12.

An all-transfers starting defensive line has panned out nicely, with former Houston nose tackle Chidozie Nwankwo being a stabilizer against the run. His 14.8% run disruption rate is 12th in the Big 12 among interior defensive linemen with at least 50 rush defense snaps. 

The defensive front won’t be why Colorado sneaks into the College Football Playoff. But a much more solid footing than in 2023 is a big reason why Sanders, Sanders, and Hunter have a chance to lead the team there. 

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