Could Florida’s College Football Playoff Dreams Defy ESPN’s Bold Rankings?

“Agree,” Dinich states. “Florida might have the best quarterback in the country in DJ Lagway, but it also has the most difficult schedule in the FBS. Again. The Gators are a long shot to win the SEC, and their chances of earning an at-large bid hinge on their ability to beat a lineup comprised mainly of top-25 teams.”Ahead of the opening kickoff just weeks away, ESPN’s Heather Dinich ranked the top 32 FBS schools based on their percentage chance of making the playoffs, while also offering a breakdown of the teams’ outlooks. The Gators landed at No. 25, in between the No. 24 Arizona Sun Devils and No. 26 Kansas Jayhawks.”Nov. 1 vs. Georgia,” she offers. “The Gators also have to face Texas in October, but the history between the Gators and Bulldogs runs deep. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 79.7% chance to win. Florida lost to both Georgia and Texas last year in back-to-back weeks. This year, the Gators have a bye week to prepare for Georgia.””An injury to Lagway,” she declares. “His health is critical to the team’s success, and the committee considers injuries to key players — which is why undefeated Florida State didn’t make the CFP in 2023 as the ACC champ. That’s not to say that Florida couldn’t make the playoff without Lagway — in 2014 Ohio State won the national title with its third-string quarterback.”But the Gators would have to prove to the committee that they still look like a playoff team with Lagway sidelined. He has already dealt with a shoulder injury, a lower body injury and a hamstring injury during his career.”

Florida football’s stats and numbers

• Percentage chance of making CFB ranking: No. 25
• Last year: 8-5
• ESPN BET odds to win national title: +4000
• CFP ranking history: 28 appearances, highest at No. 6 (three times)
• ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 14.5% | Win national title: 0.7%

Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics?

The recent success has the Gator Nation excited once again for its favorite gridiron game and expectations have followed the Orange and Blue up the win column. Now stocked with veteran talent as well as highly-heralded newcomers, Napier and Co. are looking to take this team to the next level in 2025.

Florida’s toughest test in 2025

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, as well as Bluesky, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

What the selection committee will like about Florida

Florida football is stirring up the Gator faithful after a stretch that felt like a long, dry spell — finally snagging their first winning record in four seasons and landing a bowl win that had been MIA since 2019. A big shoutout has to go to DJ Lagway, whose prowess under center has been nothing short of electric, and to Coach Billy Napier, who’s clearly been knitting the team’s fabric back together with some fundamental upgrades. It’s that kind of momentum that’s got everyone buzzing — the Orange and Blue are loaded with seasoned vets and fresh talent alike, all eyes set on elevating the squad to new heights in 2025. But let’s not sugarcoat it; chasing a spot in the elite 12-team College Football Playoff won’t be a cakewalk — Florida’s schedule this fall is reportedly the toughest in the nation, an exhausting gauntlet for any program. ESPN’s own Heather Dinich just dropped her latest analysis, slotting the Gators at No. 25 in odds to punch their ticket to the postseason, sandwiched between hungry teams like Arizona State and Kansas. It’s a narrative packed with promise and peril — an exhilarating roller coaster that only Florida fans can truly appreciate. LEARN MOREOne of their goals this fall is to crack the 12-team College Football Playoff, which would give the Gators a legitimate chance at a national championship. However, the road to the postseason is a rough one as Florida faces arguably the toughest schedule in the sport this coming fall.

What the selection committee will not like about Florida

“Even if Miami doesn’t win the ACC, the head-to-head tiebreaker could be a factor in the room if both teams are competing for an at-large spot. This is also the kind of nonconference win that could help separate Florida from the Big 12 runner-up if they’re competing for an at-large spot.”Florida football recently emerged from a nadir in program history with its first winning season in its last four tries, as well as its lone bowl game win since 2019 — thanks in large part to quarterback DJ Lagway, as well as fundamental improvements ushered in by coach Billy Napier.

“A Sept. 20 road win against Miami. The committee factors in the intangibles of rivalry games, and an in-state win against what should be a ranked Canes team would earn Florida some credit in the room. It could increase in value if Miami wins the ACC and clinches a spot in the playoff as one of the committee’s five highest-ranked conference champs,” Dinich notes.