Could Game 5 Be the Turning Point for the Warriors’ 2025 Playoff Run?

Is it just me, or does Houston’s “must-win” label this Wednesday feel more like a last-chance saloon drama than your usual playoff grind? The Rockets (1-3) face a daunting task at the Toyota Center, hosting the Golden State Warriors (3-1) on the brink of elimination—a razor-thin line between a comeback story or a fadeout. Golden State’s slim 109-106 victory at home Monday wasn’t just a scoreboard win; it was a gut check. With Jimmy Butler back from missing Game 3 and draining 27 points like it was nothing (and yes, perfect from the foul line), plus Draymond Green’s defensive wizardry shutting down Houston’s Alperen Şengün in crunch time, the Dubs seem poised to close shop. Yet, despite that 3-1 lead, these two squads are locked in a fierce tug-of-war, splitting the critical “four factors” and trading blows like heavyweight contenders. Can Houston’s bigger frame and home-court edge translate to paint points and rebounds enough to stave off elimination? Or will Golden State’s sharpshooting weather the storm—especially considering Brandin Podziemski might not replicate his Game 4 fireworks? The betting public’s whispers and the shifting lines only add fuel to the fire—because in the playoffs, it’s never just about stats, it’s about momentum… and sometimes, a little bit of luck. Ready to dissect how this saga unfolds?
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The Houston Rockets (1-3) are in a “must-win” when they host the Golden State Warriors (3-1) Wednesday in Game 5 of the first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs at the Toyota Center at 7:30 p.m. ET. Golden State put Houston on the brink of elimination with a 109-106 win at home Monday. 

After missing Game 3, Warriors All-Star Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 27 points on 58.3% shooting and was 12 for 12 from the foul line Monday. NBA Defensive Player of the Year finalist, Draymond Green, made a key stop on Rockets big Alperen Şengün at the end of regulation in Game 4 to secure the victory. 

Despite Golden State’s 3-1 lead, this series has been tight. These teams are splitting the “four factors” and the Dubs have a +2.2 scoring margin (100.5-98.3). The Rockets won three of the four factors in their loss Monday. Houston’s starters are averaging double figures, while the Warriors only have three dudes scoring 10+ points per game (minimum of one series game played). 

BetMGM’s John Ewing posted on X that 43% of the bets and 31% of the money were on Golden State as of early Wednesday afternoon. Yet, the Rockets have gone from -2.5 on the opener up to -4.5 (-105) at the time of writing. I ignore betting splits during the regular season, but I consider them more in the playoffs because there is more “public money” in the market. 

The Warriors got 26 points from SG Brandin Podziemski in Game 4 on 54.5% shooting from 3-point range (6-for-11). They can’t rely on that kind of production from Podziemski Wednesday. Will Golden State get it? Maybe. But, Podz is averaging 7.0 points on 27.8% shooting in Houston in the first two games of this series and went scoreless in Game 2. 

Finally, the Rockets are scoring 13.0 more paint points per game (46.5-33.5) and averaging more than 10 rebounds per game (47.8-37.0) in this series. I.e., Houston has more size, and teams typically shoot better at home. Şengün is scoring a team-best 22.3 points per game in this series. If he keeps that up, the Rockets will get great looks from behind the arc Wednesday. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.