Could the Cardinals Cash In on a Surprising Plus-Money Upset Against the Pirates?

The NL Central’s chess match continues tonight at 6:40 ET as the revitalized Cardinals take on the Pirates — but here’s a question that’s been bouncing around my mind: can the Pirates truly rebuild fast enough around that prodigious talent, Paul Skenes, before he decides to set sail for greener pastures? The Cardinals have the momentum, cruising eight games above .500 with an offense that’s clicking at a .254 average and churning out nearly five runs each contest, while their pitching arms have been steadier than ever. Meanwhile, the Pirates, despite their struggles and a sub-.500 record, have snatched some hope with a solid home winning streak and a commanding win in the opener. As Andre Pallante tries to keep the luck—or lack thereof—off the Cardinals’ side and Skenes aims to prove the hype is real, tonight’s showdown is less about stats and more about who’s got the grit to pull the division into sharper focus. Ready to dive into all the nitty-gritty? LEARN MORE.

Cardinals vs. Pirates, 6:40 ET

The NL Central has been one of the more intriguing divisions in baseball this season. They have one club that is one of the best offensive teams in baseball in the Cubs. They have a team that has won the division for a few years now and are still very much in the mix with the Brewers. There is a young and upcoming team in the Reds. Additionally, we have two others in the mix here as the Cardinals who are rejuvenated and the Pirates who are struggling to figure things out.

The Cardinals are eight games over .500 and sitting in third place in the division. St. Louis is one of the teams that I was high on for the past couple of years, and unfortunately for my pockets, they never really figured out a way to get everything put together. It doesn’t seem like they have much of a problem this year as things are clicking. The team is hitting .254 for the season and averaging 4.7 runs per game. That’s a really strong number that should position themselves to win a lot of games, especially considering the team ERA is at 3.95. Today they send out starter, Andre Pallante to try and get a win against the Cardinals. Pallante is 5-4 for the season with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He hasn’t been great for the season on the road or at home, but his ERA is slightly higher on the road than at home. For the most part, he is allowing about three earned runs in each game. In June, he had just two quality starts in the five outings. Pallante has been great against the Pirates in 63 at-bats, holding them to just a .190 batting average. 

I’m not the only one who says this, but the Pirates have very little going for them. Pittsburgh needs to figure out a way to build around Paul Skenes. They have a generational talent and he is going to leave if they can’t field a winning roster. At the moment, the Pirates are 14 games under .500 for the season, but they are a winning club at home, currently three games over. They also took the first game of this series, yesterday, winning the game 7-0. The team could use a lot of help offensively. They average just 3.5 runs per game, more than a full run lower than their opponent. Skenes takes the ball today, which gives them a chance to win the game. Skenes is 4-7 for the season with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. His ERA and WHIP are both in the top five of rankings this season. Skenes has been worse at home than he has on the road this year, though. All five of the home runs he has allowed have come in Pittsburgh. He is coming off his second-worst start of the season, allowing four earned runs in four innings to the Brewers. He has faced St. Louis twice this season, allowing seven earned runs in 12 total innings. 

Anytime Skenes makes a start, the first look is toward his strikeout total. He had seven in one game and six in another. Today 6+ strikeouts is -200, so that bet is out the window for me, but I lean toward over the 6.5. That will be a small play if I do it at all. I’ll be honest, I like taking Skenes in a lot of games, but he has made five starts against St. Louis in his career and is 0-4 with only one no-decision in a win for the Pirates. We get Pallante who has pitched well against the Pirates. I’m backing the better team even without the better pitcher. Take Cardinals +140 to win the game. 

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