Could Tulane Dominate the American Conference in 2025? Experts Weigh In on the Surprising Contenders
So here we are again – the American Conference, freshly rebranded, caught somewhere between a midlife crisis and a makeover montage. Sure, it’s no longer the AAC we used to know, but don’t let the instability fool you: this league is still arguably the strongest bunch outside the traditional powerhouses. With top contenders like Tulane and Memphis vying for the Group of Five’s playoff spot, and a coach poised for the big leagues, the American shows it can still pack a punch. Yet, it begs the question – can this conference finally shake off its identity woes and rise above the chaos, or is it destined to be the perpetual bridesmaid of college football’s elite? Dive into our field guide, where advanced data points meet gut instincts, to unpack the drama, the dynamics, and the daring predictions for 2025. LEARN MORE.
This is still probably the best league outside the powers. We provide a field guide to the newly named American Conference with notes, observations, advanced data points and predictions.
The American Conference is in the midst of a somewhat literal identity crisis.
The league has learned to live with instability, as its best football programs have either jumped to the Big 12 (Houston, Cincinnati, UCF) or tried very hard to (Memphis).
After a multiyear run as the sport’s hub for rising coaches, the conference has seen its pipeline to the upper levels dry up – something that isn’t the American’s problem but is indicative of a dull few years on the field.
So eager to redefine itself is this conference that it changed its name this summer: The “American Athletic” and “AAC” are no more.
And yet! In any given year, the American is still probably the best conference outside the powers.
In 2025, it has two of the top three or four contenders for the Group of Five’s playoff spot (Memphis, Tulane), the coach most likely to get a big-time job after this year (Tulane coach Jon Sumrall), and a whole handful of teams who could be really good.
What does the Opta supercomputer see for the 2025 regular season? It calculates its projections with the help of TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), which combines play data from the prior season with adjustments for recruiting class rankings, transfer portal additions, and other offseason roster turnover.
The supercomputer also accounts for each team’s strength of schedule (both last year and this year) and then reaches a projected record. It’s important to note that because of differences in strength of schedule, a team can be No. 1 in the TRACR rankings but not projected to finish with the best record in the league.
Here’s a preseason field guide to the American with notes, observations, advanced data points and 2025 season predictions. Teams are listed in the order of their TRACR ranking in the league.
American Conference Projected Records
1. Tulane
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 2nd
One scary thing: As strong as the Green Wave look right now, it’s hard to imagine their transfer portal losses not stinging a lot at some point. Running back Makhi Hughes is one of the best players in the country, and he plays for Oregon now. Quarterback Darian Mensah is one of the most promising signal-callers in the game, and he’s at Duke. Those are just the headliners; another handful of Tulane contributors found its way onto Power Four rosters this offseason.
One exciting thing: Tulane still has a good foundation on both sides of the ball, especially on the lines. The Wave have two preseason all-conference offensive linemen and made two of the biggest defensive portal additions in the league for edge rushers Santana Hopper of Appalachian State and Maurice Westmoreland of UTEP. They combined for 13 sacks last year.
Player to watch: Whoever plays quarterback. Kadin Semonza was the MAC’s Freshman of the Year at Ball State. Jake Retzlaff was a productive starter for BYU, but he left the Cougars after a sexual assault allegation (later withdrawn in court) and the school’s finding of an honor code violation.
2. UTSA
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 6th
One scary thing: The run game was ugly: A 33.3% rush success rate and 5.8% explosive play rate on those carries beat only Temple among American teams. The offensive line surrendered a 44.3% run disruption rate, also second-worst in the league. How much better will that get?
One exciting thing: QB Owen McCown came on strong down the stretch, averaging at least 7.5 yards per throw in six of his last seven games. He finished with well above-average marks in well-thrown rate (80.3%) and pickable pass rate (3.1%). The onetime Colorado Buffalo is the future here.
Player to watch: Safety Jermarius Lewis was burned often last year – on 58.6% of his targets, per Opta data – but defended three passes and is the program’s No. 2 returning tackler. UTSA’s 12.2% explosive play rate allowed on passes was near the bottom of the American. Lewis will try to lower it.
3. Memphis
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 4th
One scary thing: Memphis has an excellent offense and terrible defense every year. This has been one of the most durable trends in college football for a decade, with only slight deviations. I expect Memphis will once again score a ton of points and allow its opponents to do the same. This will net out to a lot of fun, but will it finally net out to a championship game appearance?
One exciting thing: The Tigers are at least trying something different this time, i.e. replacing basically their entire starting defense (except for first-team all-conference edge rusher William Whitlow) with transfers.
Player to watch: QB Brendon Lewis was a legit dual threat at Nevada. He’ll add a running dimension that longtime QB Seth Hennigan didn’t. How good will his downfield passing be? Let’s find out together.
4. Navy
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 3rd
One scary thing: Navy measures itself by its performance against Army, and the Midshipmen took a shellacking at the Black Knights’ hands last December. It was the kind of beating that will prompt a full year of questions about whether coach Brian Newberry’s team is physically on par with its rival. Defensively, the Mids could use more from their line after their two extremely prolific tackling linebackers, Colin Ramos and Kyle Jacob, ran out of eligibility.
One exciting thing: Quarterback Blake Horvath proved to be a solid leading man for the flexbone last year, running for 1,246 yards and hitting the occasional deep ball. (Navy’s 17.4% explosive pass play rate was just behind Army’s at the top of the league. Service academies love to chuck it over your head.)
Player to watch: Returning starter Landon Robinson (six adjusted sacks, 22 run stuffs) is a nice havoc-creating nose guard in the middle of the defense.
5. USF
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 8th
One scary thing: USF’s skill positions are a big list of question marks, outside of last year’s No. 2 receiver, Keshaun Singleton. Coach Alex Golesh was part of some “add water, instant offense” teams at Tennessee and is trying to do that here, including with Volunteers transfer WR Chas Nimrod.
One exciting thing: QB Byrum Brown didn’t take the leap forward last year that many hoped for after a 2023 mini-breakout. An injury was a lot of the reason for that. Brown is a great athlete who thinks the game well and was the only conference starter not to throw a pickable pass, as graded by Opta data. A first-team all-conference season is not out of the question with a bit more development.
Player to watch: Linebacker Mac Harris is one of the surest tacklers in the conference, having missed just six of them on 88 tackling opportunities. He also had four sacks to lead the team.
6. ECU
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 7th
One scary thing: Some of the portal losses will hurt a lot. Receiver Chase Sowell was one of the country’s better big-play threats, and he left to fill a void at Iowa State. Cornerback Isaiah Brown-Murray left his role in the slot to join Virginia Tech. Defensive tackle CJ Mims, part of a big rotation at that position, went to North Carolina. Sowell in particular seems impossible to replace.
One exciting thing: The Pirates were legitimately reinvigorated after Blake Harrell replaced Mike Houston as coach at midseason, going from a 3-4 start to a 5-1 finish. You could poke lots of holes in that if you wanted: The run included wins over three wins over teams that fired their coaches and another in a bowl game. But ECU saw enough to give Harrell the full-time job.
Player to watch: QB Katin Houser had an 80.5% well-thrown rate (four points better than league average for starters) on an above-average 10.2-yard target depth. Some of that target depth was just because he was throwing it deep to Sowell, but Houser is a building block for the Pirates.
7. North Texas
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 5th
One scary thing: There are a few. The defense is eternally terrible no matter who the head coach is (currently, it’s Eric Morris), and the offense will be a lot weaker after losing stud receiver DT Sheffield to West Virginia and Damon Ward Jr. and Blair Conwright to their eligibility clocks running out. All were explosive playmakers and will be difficult to backfill. Also, QB Chandler Morris went to Virginia.
One exciting thing: The defense has most of its key contributors back. That may not be saying much, given how lousy the unit was last year, but continuity counts for something. Inside linebacker Ethan Wesloski is back after creating a team-leading 18 run disruptions. (These are plays in which a defender blows up a gap at the point of attack.)
Player to watch: Tiny slot receiver Miles Coleman (5-foot-6, 159 pounds) leads the group of last year’s depth receivers who will step into bigger roles with the big guns gone.
8. Army
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 1st
One scary thing: We’ve seen it dozens of times: One of the service academies loses a great quarterback and then has some lean years while it waits for the talent cycle to bring around another one. Bryson Daily may have been that kind of quarterback for Army. And as a double whammy, star running back Kanye Udoh transferred to Arizona State. It’s hard for Army to add transfers, but it can lose them. (Another big loss: edge rusher Elo Modozie, who had 6.5 sacks and went to Georgia.)
One exciting thing: Unlike Navy, Army, which won the conference title, did not lose its two bulldozing, tackle-accumulating linebackers. Both Andon Thomas (third-team all-conference with 18 run stuffs) and Kalib Fortner (with 22) are back.
Player to watch: Safety Casey Larkin, who had six passes defended and 6.5 tackles for loss. He’s the Knights’ leading returning tackler outside of those two star linebackers.
(O-SUCC%=Offensive Success Rate, O-EXP%=Offensive Explosive Rate, D-SUCC%=Success Rate Allowed, D-EXP%=Explosive Rate Allowed)
9. Rice
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 10th
One scary thing: In addition to all of the standard challenges faced by 1) Rice and 2) G5 teams that go 4-9 and fire their coaches, the Owls ran out of time with one of the best players they’ve had in recent years – running back Dean Connors, who transferred crosstown to Houston. They’re due for a downgrade at the skill positions, having also lost leading wide receiver Matt Sykes.
One exciting thing: New coach Scott Abell arrives from Davidson in the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League. He runs a misdirection-based option offense. Rice needs to be different to have any chance of being good, and everyone who watches the Owls this year will notice that they are different.
Player to watch: Linebacker Ty Morris, who led the team with four sacks and made second-team all-conference. Morris, a former Houston high school star who grew into a key role as a sophomore, is the kind of developmental story Rice needs to repeat many times over. (Yes, he graduated magna cum laude. Rice has a specific type.)
10. Charlotte
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 9th
One scary thing: Charlotte has been an interesting job for a while, with coaches, agents and college football reporters wondering how the 49ers might evolve if their move to the American came with increased investment and growing fan support. It still hasn’t worked out, and the school fired its third coach in six years. We will miss Biff Poggi’s sleeveless shirts and bizarre press conferences. We wish new coach Tim Albin the best of luck in what has been an impossible gig to date.
One exciting thing: The 49ers have had a legit three-way QB battle this offseason and might wind up starting either recent UNC QB Conner Harrell or ex-Duke signal-caller Grayson Loftis. They were well-regarded prospects not long ago and could deliver an upgrade at a position where Charlotte has almost never been any good. (49ers fans long for the days of Chris Reynolds, who had a handful of above-average seasons in Conference USA between 2019 and 2022.)
Player to watch: LB Reid Williford led the team with 17 run disruptions and 24 stuffs, and also was a useful pass rusher when called on. He generated eight pressures on 24 pass-rush snaps.
11. Temple
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 12th
One scary thing: It will be a long slog to improve this offense. The 2024 Owls were dead last in the American in both explosive play rate (6.8%) and success rate (30%), not to mention points per game (19.6) and yards per play (4.6, about a half-yard worse than the next-worst team). Also, the team’s best player, linebacker Tyquan King, transferred to UConn after an all-conference season.
One exciting thing: There’s nowhere to go but up. New coach KC Keeler has a mostly blank slate to work with, and he’ll get a year or two of pressureless rebuilding time.
Player to watch: RB Terez Worthy averaged a solid 5.4 yards per carry, with 2.4 coming after contact. He’s a nice player for Keeler to inherit.
12. UAB
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 11th
One scary thing: Trent Dilfer was a transparently ridiculous hire when UAB brought him on two years ago, and nothing in his 7-17 start has made it look better. I don’t think this year will, either, though it’s at least possible Dilfer puts up a better record with a bunch of short-term portal fixes.
One exciting thing: If I’m right, UAB will get to hire a new coach for 2026. But in the interest of not only being condescending, UAB should have one of the country’s better special teams units. Kicker Jonah Delange was the American Special Teams Player of the Year, and punter Patrick Foley can play, too.
Player to watch: Kaleb Brown, a former four-star receiver prospect who’s been in college for just three years, rather than the five it feels like to me. After stops at Iowa and Ohio State, perhaps a change of scenery and adjustment in competition level will help him.
13. FAU
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 13th
One scary thing: FAU really had nothing going under Tom Herman, whom it fired early last season. There’s not a lot of high-end (even for the American) Florida high school talent on this roster and the Owls have a rough American schedule, with both Memphis and Tulane on it. Even if things trend in the right direction, winning many more than last year’s three games will be a task.
One exciting thing: New coach Zach Kittley was most recently the offensive coordinator at Texas Tech. Before that, he ran the offense for Western Kentucky, which has built a reputation for quickly assimilating new coordinators and quarterbacks and churning out great offenses with them. Kittley in turn brought over WKU’s Caden Veltkamp, and the two of them will try to orchestrate another quick turnaround. I’m interested to see how they do together. (Kittley recruited Veltkamp at WKU once upon a time.)
Player to watch: Middle linebacker Tyler Stolsky, a Minnesota transfer who will lead the defense after just one spring sitting in the center of it. (He had seven tackles as a reserve for the Gophers.)
14. Tulsa
- 2024 final TRACR rank: 14th
One scary thing: Tulsa was bad at roughly everything last year, leading to Kevin Wilson’s firing. The Golden Hurricane were lousy in all three phases, up to and including a propensity for special teams breakdowns. New coach Tre Lamb is at the start of what will have to be a lengthy rebuild.
One exciting thing: The program added five pass-catching transfers, and they’re a mix of bench players from better programs (Indiana, Mizzou, Texas A&M) and proven guys from FCS, like Western Carolina’s Zion Booker. I believe at least one or two will turn out well for Tulsa.
Player to watch: Middle linebacker Ray Coney played for Lamb at East Tennessee State and had 12 tackles for loss last fall. He immediately becomes the leader of an FBS defense. It may or may not work, but why shouldn’t Lamb ride with someone he could win with at a lower level?
Data modeling provided by Opta Analyst’s Greg Gifford. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post American Conference Predictions: Is This Tulane’s League to Win in 2025? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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