Could Tyler Shough’s Dramatic Turnaround Make Him the Saints’ Surprise Week 1 QB?

Preseason football usually feels like a glorified scrimmage that barely merits a second glance, right? Well, this year, the usual shrug just won’t cut it—teams actually trotted out their starters in Week 1, shaking up the lazy “preseason don’t matter” narrative. And let’s talk about the New Orleans Saints quarterback saga—a true circus act in the making. Rookie Tyler Shough’s debut was a roller coaster, mixing flashes of brilliance with classic rookie blunders. Meanwhile, Spencer Rattler, the favorite, seemed less than inspiring, and Jake Haener’s name pops up mostly for laughs. After Derek Carr’s abrupt retirement threw a wrench in the works, the Saints now face arguably the toughest QB dilemma in the league, dragging their Super Bowl odds into the realm of fantasy fiction. But here’s the kicker: despite it all, I’m betting on Shough at +190 to start Week 1—because sometimes, the underdog’s worth the gamble. Curious why I’m so bullish on Shough over the others? Well, let’s just say the Saints’ QB carousel might spin in his favor yet. LEARN MORE.

Usually, my stance on the NFL preseason is that it doesnât matter. In fact, I generally ignore preseason results because they lead to overreactions. However, this year is different since several teams played their starters in Week 1 of the preseason. Furthermore, the New Orleans Saints‘ starting quarterback situation is a complete toss-up.Â

I.e., Iâm overreacting to Saints rookie QB Tyler Shoughâs preseason debut and betting him to be the “New Orleans Saints Week 1 Starting QB 2025-26 (+190)” at FanDuel in Week 1 of the regular season. Second-year QB Spencer Rattler (-245) is the betting favorite. Fellow second-year and third-string QB Jake Haener (+4000) is listed as a betting option for sh*ts and giggles.Â

Granted, Shough’s performance in NOLA’s 27-13 road loss to the Los Angeles Chargers Saturday in the preseason was a mixed bag. He led the Saints on their scoring drive of the game, a 31-yard field goal. Then he followed it up with a three-and-out and a pick-six. But Shough ended his preseason debut on a high note, throwing a 54-yard TD pass in the third quarter.Â

All in all, Shough was 15-for-22 with 165 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and an 86.4 QB Rating. Rattler started, completing an uneventful 7-of-11 passes for 53 yards, with no TDs or INTs and a 75.2 QB Rating. Haener was even less inspiring, connecting on 5-of-8 throws for 41 yards, no TDs or INTs, and a 35.9 QB Rating.

This predicament was forced upon New Orleans when former QB Derek Carr abruptly retired in May due to a degenerative shoulder injury. If Carr retired earlier in the offseason, maybe the Saints would’ve acquired QB Sam Darnold, signed free agent QB Russell Wilson, or traded into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft to take New York Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart.Â

Nevertheless, NOLA has to play the hand it has been dealt, which is the worst (or second-worst, depending on how you feel about the Cleveland Browns’ QB sh*t-show) quarterback situation in the NFL. Because of this, the Saints have the worst odds to win the 2026 Super Bowl (+40000).Â

That said, Shough is the best of its options. He’s got prototypical size (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) with an above-average arm and solid mobility. Rattler is 6-foot-0 and 211 pounds and showed no upside in his six starts last year. He was 0-6 in those games with four TDs, five INTs, and a 70.4 QB Rating, which would’ve been the second-worst in the league if he played enough snaps.Â

Injuries held Shough back from living up to his four-star high school grade in college. He played for three different schools in seven seasons of college football. Yet, Rattler was a five-star recruit for Lincoln Riley and the Oklahoma Sooners, who lost his job mid-season to Caleb Williams. Rattler then transferred to South Carolina, while Riley brought Caleb with him to USC.Â

Riley is a “quarterback whisperer,” who’s gotten three different guys taken first in the NFL draft (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Williams). So, Rattler not working out in Riley’s system tells me that he isn’t a starting quarterback in the NFL. Is Shough? Probably not. But if he stays healthy, Shough will have a longer NFL career than Rattler.Â

More importantly, I love Shough’s +190 price tag at FanDuel. Considering Rattler was a fifth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Saints have a new coaching staff this season, who took Shough in the second round to presumably be Carr’s backup.Â

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.

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