Daniel Jones Shocks NFL: Are the Colts the Surprise Team No One Saw Coming?

Well, here we go again — the 2025 NFL season burst onto the scene with more twists than a primetime drama. We thought Anthony Richardson was the Colts’ chosen one, the franchise savior destined to set the gridiron ablaze by Year 3. But instead, Coach Shane Steichen flipped the script, handing the reigns to Daniel Jones — a guy many pegged as a career journeyman rather than a game-changer. And guess what? Jones didn’t just show up; he threw down with a sizzling 272 yards and not one, but TWO rushing touchdowns in Indy’s 33-8 rout of Miami. Is this a flash in the pan or the dawn of a Daniel Jones era that finally delivers on promise? It’s the kind of question that keeps football fans — and fantasy owners — wide awake at night. With underlying metrics backing Jones’ efficiency, and a revitalized offense that looks sharper than we’ve seen in years, the Colts might just be sneaking up on the rest of the AFC South. But hey, let’s not crown kings after one Sunday, right? Or should we? LEARN MORE

We don’t want to overreact, but we can’t help it. There have been a lot of interesting developments during the first Sunday of the 2025 NFL season. We break down a few of them.

The decision to move away from the quarterback who was supposed to be the future of the franchise raised some eyebrows, making outsiders question the team’s direction.

This was supposed to be Anthony Richardson’s team. The raw but ultra-talented quarterback was the fourth overall pick of the Indianapolis Colts in 2023, and Year 3 is usually the time for young players to come of age.

But Richardson only played in four games as a rookie due to injury and threw for eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions over 11 games in 2024.

Daniel Jones, who signed a one-year, prove-it deal with Indianapolis, figured to provide some experience as a more steady backup for Richardson as he continued to grow into the role.

Instead, head coach Shane Steichen decided to go with Jones, a high draft pick who never really put it all together with the New York Giants. He had shown some flashes of greatness over his six years in New York, earning the nickname “Danny Dimes.”

Jones sure made the decision look like a good one in the opener, completing 22-of-29 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores in Indianapolis’ impressive 33-8 home win over the Miami Dolphins.

It’s only the fifth time Jones has thrown for 272 or more yards since throwing for a career-high 402 yards on Oct. 3, 2021, and he also posted the seventh-highest passer rating (115.9) of his career.

With Jonathan Taylor performing in his usual workhorse role (18 carries for 71 yards), veteran wideout Michael Pittman Jr. (six catches, 80 yards, TD) and rookie tight end Tyler Warren (seven receptions, 76 yards) were Jones’ top targets in a promising new-look passing game.

But is it sustainable for Jones and the Indianapolis offense? Or was this just a good game against a woeful Dolphins teams?

Jones’ underlying data points to reasons for optimism. Danny Dimes’ 81.9% well-thrown rate in 2024 was better than the 79.0% single-season league average among all QBs with at least 320 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways) since 2016. And it was no fluke; his 84.5% in 2022 was the 23rd-best single-season rate over this span.

It is important to note that his air yards per attempt were just 6.47 in 2022 – well below the 8.19 single-season league average since 2016. But it was much closer to that mark at 7.43 in 2024 and he averaged 9.38 yards per attempt on Sunday.

Heading into Week 1, our preseason team ratings projected the Colts to have the 10th-best pass-protection unit in the NFL – and Jones was only sacked once against the Dolphins. In addition, it should help open up the passing game that we also project them to have the second-best run-blocking unit for Taylor.

The Opta supercomputer doesn’t give the Colts as many projected wins as the Jacksonville Jaguars or Houston Texans in the AFC South, but if the new-look offense continues to click with Jones at the helm, that could change in a hurry.

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