Detroit vs. Baltimore Monday: Will History Repeat or Will the Underdog Rise?

Still nursing the sting from the Los Angeles Rams +3.5 heartbreaker against the Eagles — that wild, buzzer-beating blocked field goal touchdown? Yeah, it’s been a brutal three-week stretch of brutal betting beats for me. Honestly, I’m this close to slamming shut the chapter on last week and moving on. But before I do, there’s one last call I’ve got to make for NFL Week 3: the Detroit Lions heading into the den of the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football. Remember when Baltimore trounced Detroit 38-6 earlier this year? The Ravens, even then, showed they meant business. Now? Well, the Lions lost more than their coordinators and key players this offseason—they lost momentum. Meanwhile, the Ravens have only gotten hungrier, with Derrick Henry reshaping their ground game and Lamar Jackson cooking up magic that’s downright uncanny against NFC teams. Question is: can Jared Goff and a shaky Lions defense stand up to that relentless Ravens machine? Spoiler alert: I don’t think so. Let’s dive into why Baltimore’s -4.5 (maybe moving to -5.5) line has me buzzing. LEARN MORE

I’m still pissed off about the Los Angeles Rams +3.5 losing to the Philadelphia Eagles, 33-26, thanks to a buzzer-beating field goal block touchdown Sunday. The worst betting beats in the NFL have gone against me for three straight weeks. Needless to say, I’m ready to close the book on last week.

However, before I do, my last order of business in NFL Week 3 is to give out a winner for the Detroit Lions (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1) on Monday Night Football. As I predicted, Baltimore mauled Detroit 38-6 the last time these teams met in 2023. The Ravens were -3 favorites at home for that game, and that was vs. a better Lions team.

Detroit is the reigning back-to-back NFC North champion, but had a “brain drain” this offseason, losing the offensive (Ben Johnson) and defensive coordinators (Aaron Glenn). Plus, former Lions C Frank Ragnow retired this offseason, and guard Kevin Zeitler signed with the Tennessee Titans. With that in mind, I LOVE BALTIMORE -4.5 (up to -5.5) vs. Detroit Monday.

Maybe I buried the lede here, so to speak, but the Ravens are a better team since their last game against the Lions, too. Baltimore acquired future Hall of Fame RB Derrick Henry before last season, who’s taken this offense to another level. Henry had his second-best season in the NFL last year, running for 1,921 yards and scoring a league-high 16 rushing TDs.

Lamar Jackson put on a show vs. Detroit two years ago. Jackson completed 21-of-27 passes for 357 yards with four total TDs (three passing and one rushing), no interceptions, and a 93.3 QBR. With Henry in the backfield, I don’t see how the Lions get the Ravens off the field. Of course, Baltimore leads the NFL in points per game (40.5 PPG).

Furthermore, Lamar is 24-4 vs. the NFC in his career with 58 total TDs (48 passing and 10 rushing), and a 106.4 QB Rating. Honestly, I cannot figure out why this trend exists. But a 28-game sample size is big enough for it to mean something.

Also, Lions QB Jared Goff isn’t athletic enough to handle this defense. The Ravens sacked him five times two years ago, and Goff adds nothing to Detroit’s rushing attack. If Baltimore can force a bunch of third-and-longs, Goff will be a sitting duck back there.

The Lions have been weak in the trenches and bad in high-leverage situations. They are 31st in pass-rush win rate and 29th in run-stopping win rate through the first two weeks, per ESPN. Detroit’s defense is 30th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 26th in red-zone scoring allowed. That’s bad news, considering the Ravens like to establish the run and convert in high-leverage spots.

Finally, the market forgot that the Lions got crushed by the Green Bay Packers 27-13 in their season opener because Detroit dominated the Chicago Bears 52-21 last week. Unfortunately for the Lions, Baltimore is better than Green Bay, and the Ravens would be at least a -6 favorite in this game if they held on to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

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