Discover the Shocking Truth Hidden Within This Untold Story

There’s a curious magic in heading toward the midway point of the fantasy football season — a blend of satisfaction, skepticism, and that sneaky itch to second-guess what the experts say. I mean, the Indianapolis Colts are tearing through the NFL with the best record, yet their rookie tight end, Tyler Warren, is quietly outscoring Justin Jefferson in fantasy points. Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey, the No. 2 fantasy running back, finds himself on a 49ers team struggling to gain yards per rush. Makes you wonder: should you still trust the consensus expert picks, or is it time to let data-driven insights guide your Week 9 choices? Fantasy football, after all, is a weekly thrill ride — what’s gold one week might just turn to fool’s gold the next. So, let’s shake up the status quo and dive into fresh start and sit recommendations that might surprise you and keep your lineup ahead of the curve. LEARN MORE

In our 2025 NFL Week 9 fantasy football start and sit, we let the data give another perspective that likely varies from the overall expert picks.

Believe it or not, we’re almost halfway through the fantasy season.

The Indianapolis Colts have the best record in the NFL and their rookie tight end, Tyler Warren, has more fantasy points than Justin Jefferson. George Pickens is third in the league in receiving yards and third among all wide receivers in PPR points.

The San Francisco 49ers, with fantasy’s No. 2 running back in Christian McCaffrey, are last in the NFL in yards per rush.

As we eat way too much candy today, and the weather gets colder, it’s imperative to remember that fantasy is a weekly game. What has happened so far may soon change.

That’s why the weekly rankings are so important.

Let’s dive in.

Start ‘Em in Week 9: The Yays

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) from Fantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week (we pulled these numbers from Thursday). Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Trevor Lawrence (JAC) vs LV (ECR: QB16, Our Rank: QB9)

It has been a rocky year for Lawrence, and it feels that public opinion of him continues to shift towards the negative end of the spectrum.

Coming off the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ bye week, it’s easy to forget, though, that from purely a fantasy perspective, he was a solid plus. From Weeks 5-7, he was the QB7 in fantasy points, averaging over 20 per game during that span.

The good times are likely to continue in Week 9 against the defensively challenged Las Vegas Raiders. After a (now) surprising result in Week 1 against the New England Patriots, the Raiders have only allowed one team to score fewer than 20 points – the Tennessee Titans. They have allowed two teams to score more than 40 in that same span.

The Raiders are 10th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per play. The way to attack them is through the air. Lawrence has the most projected pass attempts of any quarterback in Week 9, according to our model.

He’s a solid option.

Ashton Jeanty (LV) vs JAC (ECR: RB 15, Our Rank: RB9)

Man, it has not been a good year for rookie running backs.

Jeanty, the superstar of the class, has exactly one game with a top-10 weekly finish. Cam Skattebo, fantasy’s top rookie, suffered a terrible injury last week and will be out for the year. Omarion Hampton? He’s on IR. TreVeyon Henderson, well, it probably would have been better for fantasy managers if he was as well, so they wouldn’t keep being tempted to start him.

However, what we always say about rookies is that the prudent thing is to hold on to them for the second half of the season.

That starts this week with Jeanty. In his last two home games, Jeanty has averaged 23 touches, and he’s scored a touchdown in each. The Raiders have had two weeks to stew about their pathetic showing against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. I mean, the Chiefs scored more points than the Raiders ran plays.

Jeanty only had six carries two weeks ago. But before that, he’d averaged 20 touches per game through the first six weeks. The Jags are second in the NFL in interceptions. So is Geno Smith.

This is a game to pound the rock. Jeanty is a top-10 play.

Alec Pierce (IND) vs PIT (ECR: WR42, Our Rank: WR25)

The Colts are the story of the first half of the season. Jonathan Taylor looks like the best running back in the NFL. The previously mentioned Warren looks like he might already be an elite tight end.

And of course, Daniel Jones has been nothing short of a revelation at quarterback. One thing that has remained consistent, however, is Pierce’s deep-ball abilities.

Pierce was first by a country mile among qualified receivers in average depth of target last season. Among players with at least 30 targets this season, he is once again lapping the field in depth of target at 21.7 yards. As a result, his average yards at the catch lead the NFL.

Pierce has at least 67 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He may not wow you with his reception totals, but he has a catch of at least 25 yards in every game but one. Playing a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, the model likes Pierce’s chances of not only producing another big play but also of having a solid week.

He’s a definite candidate to fill your Flex spots this weekend.

Cooper Kupp (SEA) vs WSH (ECR: WR44, Our Rank: WR30)

Through eight weeks, the Washington Commanders have allowed 16 different players to record at least 50 receiving yards. That, for the math-challenged folks, comes out to two per game.

And if we assume that Jaxon-Smith Njigba will be one of those two, Kupp is the best bet to be the other. He’s been more up-and-down, especially as Smith-Njigba hoards most of the offense (he ranks fifth in the NFL in targets per game).

But in the Seattle Seahawks’ three games with at least 30 points, Kupp has recorded 21 targets, 15 receptions and 180 receiving yards. That is an average of five receptions and 60 receiving yards per game, which falls right in line with our projection for him this week.

Facing Jayden Daniels (expected back this week) and a Commanders defense that has allowed more than 30 points per game over their last three weeks, the Seahawks have a good chance of scoring a fair amount of points on Sunday Night Football.

With four teams on bye, you could do worse with a desperate throw of the dice than play Kupp.

Sit ‘Em in Week 9: The Nays

Jordan Love (GB) vs CAR (ECR: QB13, Our Rank: QB19)

The Green Bay Packers are shaping up to be a juggernaut. Our model loves (pun absolutely intended) them. Just check it out.

They are a huge favorite at home against the Carolina Panthers, which should make it seemingly a contradiction that Love is a Nay.

There are two main reasons for this: First, Josh Jacobs is third among all running backs in projected rushing touchdowns. At this point, that shouldn’t be a surprise. Since the start of the 2024 season, he has 25 touchdowns in 24 games.

Reason No. 2? Love has had either a huge week or a below-average one. There’s not much in between. He has had two finishes as a top-six weekly quarterback. He has had four weeks when he was the QB17 or worse.

The bet here is that the Packers defeat the Panthers so handily that he doesn’t have to throw the ball all that much. In their four wins by more than one score, Love has averaged fewer than 30 pass attempts.

He is a risky fantasy play, particularly because he only averages 1.5 rushing points per game.

Tee Higgins (CIN) vs CHI (ECR: WR22, Our Rank: WR47)

Ouch. Of all the Yays and Nays so far this season, having Higgins all the way down at WR47 feels the worst. This was, after all, a player who was on our preseason Yays list.

But when a team loses its star quarterback, the hierarchy of the entire offense can get sideswiped and that is seemingly what has happened with the Cincinnati Bengals.

Ja’Marr Chase has an almost impossible 54 targets in just the last three weeks. He has 38 receptions during that span. Higgins? He has only 47 targets all season, and after his one-catch performance last week, he has only 25 receptions.

This is what we said about this offense before the season:

In the 12 games that Higgins and fantasy’s No. 1 player from last season, Ja’Marr Chase, played together last season, Higgins averaged 9.1 targets per game, 6.1 receptions per game and had 10 touchdowns. Chase averaged 9.8 targets per game, 7.0 receptions per game, and he also had 10 touchdowns.

This now Joe Flacco-led offense looks nothing like last year’s historic attack. So starting Higgins feels like a massive risk, one that fantasy managers might be compelled to make because, well, he’s Tee Higgins! The model says sit him.

Good luck to you if you decide to play him. Maybe you’ll cash in on another 40-yard touchdown, which was his only catch last week.

Didn’t see the names you were after? Be sure to check out our full fantasy football projections. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.

The post Fantasy Football Start/Sit: All the Yays and Nays for Week 9 appeared first on Opta Analyst.