Eagles and Buccaneers Face Off: Which NFC Powerhouse Will Keep Their Perfect Record Alive?
Is it just me, or does the NFL’s Week 4 showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers feel like a chess match disguised as a gridiron battle? Here we have Jalen Hurts, the stoic juggernaut, being nudged gently but firmly to trust his seasoned wideout A.J. Brown a little more — because sometimes experience outpaces raw talent. On the flip side, Baker Mayfield, with his rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka stepping into the spotlight due to injuries, faces the thrilling question: Can the rookie rise to the occasion and fill the void with his fresh legs and eager hands? It’s a tantalizing “now or never” scenario for both quarterbacks, shaping the narrative for two of the NFC’s last undefeated contenders. And, if you think statistics tell a dry story, think again — these key stats reveal a riveting tale of comebacks, clutch plays, and strategic battles that could tilt the playoff odds dramatically. So, buckle up: will veterans carry the day, or will young guns steal the stage? Let’s dive deep into what makes this clash a must-watch spectacle. LEARN MORE.
The time is now for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts to lean on his veteran wideout and for the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield to do the same with his rookie phenom. We explain why in our preview of one of the NFL’s Week 4 biggest showdowns.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers: The Key Stats
- The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning 58.1% of pre-game simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- The Buccaneers are 6-1 against the Eagles since 2015, including two playoff victories. That .857 winning percentage is Tampa Bay’s highest against any NFC team in that span.
- The Eagles have scored a touchdown on each of their eight red-zone drives this season – the NFL’s only team with a perfect red-zone TD efficiency.
To be successful in the NFL, teams must find ways to win close games.
While the bad teams wilt late, the good ones show resolve, making enough plays down the stretch with the game on the line.
Perhaps no two teams have exemplified this more in 2025 than the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And these battle-tested contenders meet in the NFL’s Week 4 in Tampa in a matchup featuring two of the three undefeated teams from the NFC.
After winning their first two games by a combined seven points, the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles were down 19 in the third quarter to the Los Angeles Rams this past Sunday.
They stormed back and on the game’s final play, blocked a potential winning field goal – their second blocked field goal of the fourth quarter – and returned it for a touchdown to win 33-26, turning a one-point margin into a seven-point victory, much to the delight of the sportsbooks, as Philly then covered the 3.5-point spread.
The Buccaneers’ contest this past Sunday against the New York Jets also came down to a field goal attempt on the game’s final play. In Tampa Bay’s case, Chase McLaughlin converted a 36-yarder to give the Bucs a 29-27 victory.
With their latest comeback engineered by Baker Mayfield, the Bucs became the first team in the Super Bowl era to have a game-winning score in the final minute of the fourth quarter in each of their first three games.
They’ve won these three games by a combined six points, becoming just the third team since 1923 to start a season 3-0 with a point differential so small. The other two teams – the 2020 Tennessee Titans and 2005 Washington franchise – each made the playoffs.
The Opta supercomputer sees both the Bucs and Eagles making the playoffs in its NFL picks, calculating Tampa Bay’s odds at 66.7% and Philadelphia’s at 95.5% (as of Friday).
Eagles’ Key to Victory vs. Buccaneers
The unbelievable finish to last Sunday’s victory sparked wild celebrations by Eagles fans and players. That is, except for Jalen Hurts.
Perhaps a reason Hurts remained so stoic as bedlam ensued all around him is that he wondered: “Why don’t we open up the offense earlier instead of waiting until the last minute?”
Sure, the offense needed to take some deep shots in the second half given its situation, but Hurts proved he can efficiently move the ball downfield – especially when throwing in the direction of A.J. Brown.
Ten of Hurts’ 23 throws after halftime were out of a drop-back pass concept after having just one such throw in the first half. When stepping back and looking downfield, he averaged 14.27 air yards on those passes.
On the season, Hurts has only attempted 21 passes when dropping back – the fewest by any QB who has started three games. But the thing is, this play concept is working for the Philly QB.
When dropping back, Hurts has a well-thrown percentage of 95.2 – the best among the 31 QBs with a minimum of 20 attempts – compared to an 87.8 well-thrown percentage on all other throws.
He’s also a threat to evacuate the pocket and pick up yards with his legs, averaging 8.29 yards on seven scrambles.
(minimum of 20 attempts/four scrambles)
Overall in Week 3, Hurts had four completions of 21+ yards and two more between 11-20. In the first two games, he had only three completions of more than 10 yards.
Brown also proved on Sunday he can still make plays even if he’s covered. He was open on just four of his nine second-half targets but still hauled in six catches for 109 yards with a TD during the comeback.
On the season, his open percentage of 52.6 is the second lowest among the 46 receivers targeted at least 17 times. The NFL average among wide receivers is 71.6.
So pretty much, Hurts can just throw it in Brown’s direction downfield and let his All-Pro receiver win the 1-on-1 battle to come down with the ball.
After last Sunday’s win, Brown had a recommendation for the offense.
“Let your killers do their thing – play fast and play aggressive.”
We’ll see if the coaching staff listens.
Buccaneers’ Key to Victory vs. Eagles
Emeka Egbuka, your table is ready.
Mayfield is expected to be without his favorite target for a few weeks after perennial 1,000-yard receiver Mike Evans sustained a hamstring strain in last Sunday’s second half.
There’s a possibility that Chris Godwin suits up for the first time since suffering a severe ankle injury last October, but even if he does play, expect Mayfield to look Egbuka’s direction frequently.
The Bucs utilize a lot of quick passes with Mayfield’s 2.93-second release time, the fifth-fastest among the QBs to have started three games.
Quick passes make sense against a relentless Eagles defense that is tied for second in the NFL in pressure rate (52.8), and that is the exact strategy Tampa Bay employed one year ago against Philadelphia.
In Week 4 of the 2024 season, the Bucs rolled to a 33-16 home win over the Eagles behind Mayfield’s 347 passing yards with two touchdowns. To combat Philly’s pass rush, 24 of Mayfield’s 47 attempts were quick-strike concepts. It was by far his most quick-strike passes in a game last season, as he averaged 9.5 quick passes in the other 16 contests.
Of Mayfield’s 24 quick throws against Philly, all of them were deemed a well-thrown pass by our advanced metrics, and he had a release time of 1.81 seconds. Mayfield ended up throwing to Evans 14 times, and he caught eight of those passes for 94 yards with a touchdown.
Mayfield regularly zeroes in on his six-time Pro Bowl receiver when getting the ball out quickly, as only the Los Angeles Chargers’ Keenan Allen (16) has been targeted more on quick throws than Evans (15).
Mayfield is targeting Evans a whopping 39.5% of the time on 39 routes run on quick throws. Only the Rams’ Puka Nacua has been targeted at a higher rate (46.4%) among the 61 receivers to have run at least 25 routes on quick-concept passes.
You’d have to scroll way down on this list to find Egbuka, who has been targeted six times on 37 routes, or 16.2% of the time.
Egbuka, however, has already come up with some big catches this season, and the rookie is grading out a bit better than his fellow veteran receiver.
(*tied for the NFL high)
Bucky Irving could get more rushing attempts given the short-handed receiving corps, but it’s time for Egbuka to take on an even larger role in the passing game.
Given his production in his first three career games, he should be ready.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Eagles are considered the favorites on most betting sites, and the Opta supercomputer agrees, giving Philadelphia a 58.1% chance of winning (as of Friday).
The Bucs, however, have had the Eagles’ number over the years, going 6-1 against them since 2015, including two playoff victories at Raymond James Stadium. This is Tampa Bay’s best record against any NFC team over this span.
Hurts is 1-4 against the Bucs with five touchdowns and five interceptions and a 74.6 QB rating. In all other games, he has 93 TDs to 37 picks and a 95.5 passer rating.
Follow along on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
The post Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Which One of These NFC Contenders Will Remain Undefeated? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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