Eagles vs. Chargers: Can Philly Ignite a Comeback or Will LA Seal Their Fate?
Monday night’s clash isn’t just another game on the NFL calendar — it’s a crossroads where one team will walk away with a confidence boost and a statement win over a playoff-caliber opponent, while the other will be left licking wounds and facing a barrage of tough questions. The Philadelphia Eagles, reigning Super Bowl champs with a remarkable 47-16 record since 2022, find themselves in an uncharacteristic tailspin, sparking heated debates among their passionate fanbase and media alike. On the other sideline, the Los Angeles Chargers, sporting an identical 8-4 record, are eager to prove their mettle post-bye, led by the ever-resilient Justin Herbert whose recent hand injury casts a shadow over their offensive dynamics. As these titans tango under the bright lights, every snap, run, and pass could tilt the scales — will Philly right the ship or will the Chargers seize the moment and send a warning to the rest of the league? Buckle up; this isn’t just a game, it’s a playoff preview with everything on the line.
One team will leave Monday night’s matchup with a win over a playoff-caliber NFL team and renewed confidence headed into the final month of the regular season. The other will limp away with serious questions to answer down the stretch.
Eagles vs. Chargers: The Key Stats
- The Eagles are considered slight favorites over the Chargers on Monday Night Football, with Philadelphia winning 61.0% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
- Keenan Allen will play his 167th career game on Monday and is 104 yards short of the 12,000-yard receiving milestone. Assuming he crosses the 12,000-yard threshold before the end of the season, only 15 players in NFL history have gotten to 12,000 yards in fewer games.
- The Eagles lead the NFL in red-zone efficiency, scoring a touchdown on 75.9% of red-zone possessions. They are on pace for the highest red-zone touchdown percentage since the 2020 Green Bay Packers (80.0%).
- Last season, the Chargers were tied for 19th in big plays allowed, giving up 3.59 plays of 20 or more yards per game. This year, they are allowing 2.42 big plays per game, tied for the league lead.
Since the start of the 2022 season, no team in the NFL has won more games than the Philadelphia Eagles (47-16). That stretch includes two Super Bowl appearances and ending last season with the Lombardi Trophy.
So why does it feel like the Eagles are amid a DEFCON 1 emergency?
For one, Philly fans aren’t exactly known for underreacting. But even national observers and members of the media have been wondering if there’s something wrong with the Eagles after they lost their last two games.
Head coach Nick Sirianni has once again been the target of some scrutiny, and some have called for offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo to either be fired or stripped of his play-calling duties.
Philadelphia fans booed the Eagles at halftime and left early from a 24-15 loss to the Chicago Bears last week, and Patullo’s New Jersey home was vandalized with eggs last weekend.
Despite the turmoil, the Eagles still lead the NFC East at 8-4 and their two consecutive losses have both been by single digits and have come against teams that are over .500, including the NFC-leading Bears.
They will face another playoff-caliber team on Monday night, when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers, who are also 8-4. LA was humbled in a 35-6 loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, sending them into a bye week with plenty of work to do.
The Chargers emerged from the bye to roll past the Las Vegas Raiders 31-14 last weekend, but the schedule will turn up the heat the rest of the way, with the Chargers’ final five games coming against teams currently in the playoff hunt.
One team will leave Monday night’s matchup with a win over a playoff-caliber team and renewed confidence headed into the final month of the regular season.
The other will limp away with serious questions to answer down the stretch.
Chargers’ Key to Victory vs. Eagles
The most pivotal issue for the Chargers is the health of quarterback Justin Herbert.
The franchise quarterback underwent surgery to repair a broken bone in his non-throwing hand on Monday. He did not practice earlier in the week but was a limited participant in practices on Thursday through Saturday.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh told reporters midweek that he has prepared to have Herbert start. Assuming he plays, Herbert’s hand injury would likely prevent him from taking many, if any, snaps from under center.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman told reporters that almost all the plays in his playbook could be altered to be run out of pistol or shotgun, and that could play into the Chargers’ strengths.
While playing from under center can help diversify the running game and make play-action passing more effective, Los Angeles hasn’t been very effective with that kind of offense.
The Chargers have been a better rushing team out of the gun, averaging 6.33 yards per carry in those sets. While play-action is generally less effective in shotgun formations, Los Angeles ranks 22nd by averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on play-action concepts.
Herbert has had an up-and-down year so far, but there is reason to believe he has been playing better than his box score stats would indicate. He’s thrown six interceptions over his last six games, pushing his season total to 10. (Only three players have more this season.)
However, he’s also been among the top 10 for pass attempts, and he has had unfortunate interception luck, as shown by his above-average pickable pass percentage.
Pickable passes are defined as throws that give an NFL-caliber defender a reasonable chance of intercepting. These include actual interceptions, dropped interceptions, plus other scenarios, like when two defenders run into each other, accidentally preventing either one from grabbing a pick.
Herbert has thrown 11 pickable passes this season, giving him a 2.86% pickable pass rate that ranks 10th in the NFL among those with at least 200 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways).
Additionally, 10 of his pickable passes have been converted by the defense. That is an unusually high rate.
One key concept for Herbert and the Chargers has been the quick passing game, especially with starting offensive tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater both on injured reserve.
The Chargers’ injury-weakened offensive line has allowed a 53.0% pressure rate, which ranks 30th in the NFL. The coaching staff has attempted to counter this by getting the ball out of Herbert’s hands quickly.
A pass concept is considered “quick” when the quarterback takes a one- or three-step drop and all or most of the routes develop almost immediately – slants, quick outs, pivots and shallow curls to find holes in zones. Usually, all the routes are run 10 or fewer yards downfield.
The Chargers have run quick concepts 202 times this season (the second most in the league) and they’ve had success with it. Los Angeles ranks 11th with a 46.5% success rate on quick concepts and ranks fifth with a 5.4% explosive rate on those plays.
The Chargers will need to win underneath against a Philadelphia defense that is allowing a league-low 4.4 yards per play on quick concepts. Keenan Allen leads LA with an 80.7 route rating (measures the ability to win routes), which falls into the really good category, while Ladd McConkey is a close second at 78.5.
Eagles’ Key to Victory vs. Chargers
Philadelphia’s offensive stagnation has been among the most confusing developments of this season, especially with top skill-position players like Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith healthy almost the entire year.
Barkley is averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season after averaging 5.8 per carry in his historic campaign in 2024, and Brown caused waves earlier this season after indicating on social media that he was unhappy with his role on the offense.
Even worse, the offense appears to have taken a turn for the worse over the last month, with the Eagles averaging just 15.5 points over their last four games.
Over that span, they have an overall success rate of 33.6%, which would rank 30th if extrapolated over the entire season, and a rushing success rate of 28.7%, which would rank last.
One way to get Barkley back on track could be to change the kinds of runs being called.
Throughout his career, Barkley has been an excellent runner behind zone blocking, using patience and vision to pick a hole and then exploding through it.
This season, however, he has been very unproductive on zone runs. Barkley is averaging 2.88 yards per carry on inside and outside zone over the last four weeks.
Instead of calling zone as frequently, the Eagles may be better served by favoring the other family of run schemes, gap runs, which sometimes feature pulling lineman and are designed for the running back to aim toward a particular gap.
Over the last four weeks, Barkley has averaged 4.12 yards per carry on counter and duo runs, Philly’s favorite two-gap schemes.
One inflection point when the Eagles have the ball will be the aggressiveness of Philly’s play-calling, especially if they can find some success on the ground.
Jalen Hurts has a reputation as a top-tier game manager in a run-heavy offense, but he has shown an ability to air the ball out a little more this season.
This year, Hurts’ 8.88 air yards per attempt is higher than the league average, and his 10.8% checkdown rate is below average.
The Eagles have attempted 47 passes more than 20 yards downfield, tied for the fifth most in the league. Hurts has a 118.6 passer rating on those deep throws, the fourth highest in the NFL.
Spreading the field has also helped Hurts, who has a league-leading 113.3 passer rating in sets with four or five wide receivers.
So why not spread the field and let Hurts sling it?
For one, the gap runs that have been more effective recently are commonly called from formations featuring tight ends and/or a fullback. And while the Eagles may benefit from opening up the playbook a bit long-term, this isn’t the week to do it.
The Chargers are allowing an NFL-low passer rating of 38.4 on passes more than 20 yards downfield, with opposing quarterbacks going 8 of 34 for 335 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions on deep shots.
Eagles vs. Chargers Prediction
Monday’s game is not mathematically a must-win for either team, but the loser will certainly face questions about the future.
A fifth straight flop on offense might finally convince the Eagles to turn up the heat on Patullo and Sirianni, especially with a passionate fanbase already calling for a shake-up.
The situation feels slightly less urgent for the Chargers, but some view Herbert’s 0-2 playoff record as a sign of weakness, and he will need to beat some tough teams before proving he is the franchise cornerstone that Los Angeles hopes he is.
With the stakes continuing to get higher in December, the Opta supercomputer has the Eagles with a 61.0% probability of pulling out a much-needed win on Monday night.
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The post Eagles vs. Chargers prediction: Will Philly Right the Ship or Continue to Fade in LA? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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