ESPN Model Drops Shock Pick for Most Overrated Preseason Top 25 Team—Is Your Favorite On the List?

Here we go — ESPN’s preseason top 25 has landed, and if you thought BYU was cruising comfortably at No. 10, hold onto your hats. The SP+ model, ESPN’s cold, calculating brainchild that crunches returning production, recruiting chops, and recent history, sees things a bit… differently. To put it mildly, the model suggests BYU is more like a long shot at No. 27, way down from that shiny top 10 spot. So the question begs: Are the Cougars genuinely underestimated by analytics, or are they just the prettiest kid in the preseason class who might trip on game day? There’s something fascinating about the disconnect between staunch optimism and statistical skepticism—and it got me thinking about how often those preseason polls gloss over the subtle cracks beneath the shiny surface. BYU’s promising returning talent and key transfers paint one picture, but ESPN’s model isn’t convinced they’ve got the grit for the College Football Playoff just yet. Intrigued? Yeah, me too. LEARN MORE.

ESPN’s model, the SP+, has made it clear who the most “overrated” team in the college football preseason top 25 is heading into the 2025 regular season.

The Worldwide Leader in Sports updated its preseason top 25 this weekend, following the conclusion of spring football. There were some notable changes to the preseason top 25, as several rankings spots were shuffled up.

But who is the most overrated team in the country in ESPN’s latest preseason top 25 rankings?

ESPN’s model, the SP+ – which uses returning production, recent recruiting and recent history to judge and forecast a team – has made it clear who the pick is.

ESPN’s preseason top 25 rankings have BYU all the way up at No. 10 in the country.

The Worldwide Leader in Sports is quite high on BYU. The Cougars bring back several key players, including QB Jake Retzlaff, RB LJ Martin, WR Chase Roberts, WR/KR Keelan Marion, LB Isaiah Glasker, LB Jack Kelly, S Tanner Wall and CB Evan Johnson. 

BYU has also brought in some key NCAA Transfer Portal additions, including: DT Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah), DE Tausili Akana (Texas), DT Anisi Purcell (Southern Utah), TE Carsen Ryan (Utah) and OT Andrew Gentry (Michigan).

“The Cougars came close to making the CFP last season, and with Retzlaff, Martin, Roberts and Marion returning, they should be more explosive on offense. The Cougars will have to replace three starting offensive linemen; Isaiah Jatta (Colorado Buffaloes) and Gentry are ready to take over at tackle,” ESPN writes.

“BYU is searching for more depth on the defensive line, where Tanuvasa and Akana were competing for starting jobs. The linebacker corps suffered a blow when returning starting middle linebacker Harrison Taggart transferred to California in the spring. The group is still in good shape with Glasker and Kelly returning. Wall and Johnson lead a very experienced secondary.”

ESPN’s model, though, is not convinced that BYU is a top 10 team – or even a top 25 team, for that matter.

The SP+ has BYU all the way down at No. 27 in the country – a 17-place difference between its spot on the top 25 rankings.

It’s clear that ESPN’s model is not buying BYU as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender heading into the 2025 season – at least not right now.