ESPN SP+ Predicts Shocking Upset in Michigan State vs. Nebraska Showdown—Can the Underdog Deliver?

There’s something electric about a showdown where both squads carry identical records—3-1 and hungry for bragging rights. This Saturday, the field at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln will crackle with that very tension as Michigan State ventures into Nebraska territory. Now, I’ve been following the twists and turns of this matchup, and the latest from ESPN’s SP+ is painting a pretty clear picture: Nebraska pulling away with a 33-19 win. The betting lines aren’t shy about it either, pinning Nebraska as more than a ten-point favorite, reinforcing that edge. It’s a narrative that feels familiar—Michigan State as the underdog attempting to rewrite expectations. The kickoff is at 4 p.m. ET, with FS1 bringing the action live. Honestly, I’m curious not just about the scoreboard, but whether the Spartans can defy the odds and show unexpected grit in this clash of Big Ten contenders. LEARN MORE

Michigan State and Nebraska will face off on Saturday, with both teams holding a 3-1 record.
ESPN’s SP+ prediction model projects Nebraska will defeat Michigan State by a score of 33-19.
Nebraska is also favored by double-digits in betting lines, aligning with the SP+ prediction.
The game is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET and will be televised on FS1 from Lincoln, Nebraska.

Michigan State football is again a sizable road underdog, but how does the algorithm at SP+ think this big-time Big Ten matchup will play out?

The Spartans are coming off a bye and will look to rebound from a loss last time out as they head to Nebraska on Saturday afternoon. Both Michigan State and Nebraska enter this game off losses in their Big Ten openers, and both are 3-1 overall on the year.

Nebraska is listed as a double-digit favorite over the Spartans, and that essentially lines up with ESPN’s SP+ model as well. Bill Connelly of ESPN has released his SP+ predictions for this week’s set of games, and his model has Nebraska coming out on top by the final score of 33-19. The betting line, depending on the sports book, is Nebraska minus-10.5 so Connelly’s giving the edge to the Cornhuskers here in both the game and betting spread.

Kickoff between the Spartans and Cornhuskers is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET on Saturday from the Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Neb. The game will be televised on FS1.

My Thoughts on SP+ Prediction

The SP+ model hasn’t been high on the Spartans all season-long so this projection of a two-touchdown Cornhuskers’ victory is not surprising to see. But, I would anticipate a better showing from Michigan State than what SP+ is projecting. If Michigan State loses by two touchdowns in this game, I’ll be very disappointed and lose confidence that this group is going to reach a bowl game.

Complete SP+ Predictions for Week 4

Click on the post below to see the complete breakdown of every Football Bowl Subdivision game that SP+ has predicted the scores for this upcoming week:

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.