ESPN’s Computer Unveils Shocking Preseason Top 25 Bust—You’ll Never Guess Which Team Topped the List!
The 2025 college football preseason AP Poll just dropped, and as expected, Texas claims the No. 1 spot—nothing too shocking there. Penn State and Ohio State follow closely, setting the stage for a fiery opener between two giants. Clemson and Georgia round out the top five, both fresh off College Football Playoff appearances. But here’s the kicker—while the usual suspects dominate the headlines, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) isn’t buying everything these rankings are selling. The surprise (or maybe not-so-surprising) “overrated” team? Illinois. Ranked 12th in the AP Poll, yet lurking all the way down at 44th with FPI’s cold, hard math—it’s a 32-spot disparity that’s hard to ignore. So, is Illinois flying too close to the sun or quietly ready to prove the doubters wrong? Either way, this clash between human polls and machine predictions adds an extra layer of intrigue to the upcoming season. Fancy digging deeper? LEARN MORE.
The 2025 college football preseason AP Poll Top 25 rankings came out on Monday afternoon.
Texas, unsurprisingly, came in at No. 1. Penn State followed at No. 2. Ohio State, which faces Texas to open the season, is ranked No. 3. Clemson and Georgia, who both made the College Football Playoff last season, round out the top five.
But while all five of those teams are unsurprising picks, there are a few head turners further down in the rankings. According to ESPN’s computer model, the Football Power Index, the most “overrated” team in the Top 25 is extremely obvious.
According to ESPN’s computer model, the most “overrated” team in the preseason Top 25 rankings is Illinois.
Bret Bielema’s team comes in at No. 12 in the first AP Poll of the 2025 season. The Illini come in behind No. 10 Miami and No. 11 Arizona State. Illinois went 10-3 last season and is expected to take another step forward in 2025.
However, ESPN’s computer model, the Football Power Index – which “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.” – is not high on Illinois.
The Football Power Index has Illinois as the 44th best team in the country. That’s a 32-spot difference between their Associated Press ranking and their FPI ranking.
It’s clear that ESPN’s computer model is not high on the Illini.
The full AP Poll Top 25 can be seen below:
- Texas
- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Georgia
- Notre Dame
- Oregon
- Alabama
- LSU
- Miami
- Arizona State
- Illinois
- South Carolina
- Michigan
- Florida
- SMU
- Kansas State
- Oklahoma
- Texas A&M
- Indiana
- Ole Miss
- Iowa State
- Texas Tech
- Tennessee
- Boise State
The following teams received votes but did not get enough to make it: BYU 156, Utah 144, Baylor 132, Louisville 90, Southern Cal 64, Georgia Tech 63, Missouri 33, Tulane 23, Nebraska 23, UNLV 21, Toledo 13, Auburn 10, James Madison 9, Memphis 9, Florida St. 8, Duke 6, Liberty 5, Navy 5, Iowa 5, TCU 4, Pittsburgh 3, Army 2, Colorado 1, Louisiana-Lafayette 1.
How do you feel about the Fighting Illini heading into the year? Overrated or properly rated?
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