Fantasy Football Week 13 Panic Meter: Can Rome Odunze and Caleb Williams Finally Sync Up Before It’s Too Late?

Sometimes, I find myself glaring at the decisions “past me” made, especially when those choices haunt my Fantasy Football Live standings. It’s like that former version of myself holds the reins, picking primetime squads that somehow leave me 100 points in the dust. Sound familiar? I’m convinced every fantasy manager faces that Tuesday morning roster reckoning—where you spot that one player whose points could’ve swung a tough loss into a thrilling win. Weeks of decisions pile up, each shaping our fate as the fantasy playoffs creep closer, raising the stakes and igniting a fresh wave of anxiety. With recent Sunday letdowns fueling jitters, it’s clear—now’s the time to dissect the moves, players, and strategies that could still tip the scales in your favor.

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I can’t stand “past Chris” sometimes. He’s the past version of me that gets to make all the decisions. You know, like the primetime picks I do (he does) for Fantasy Football Live that have me 100 points behind the pack. That guy’s making me (us) look bad. And I’m sure most managers have a similar dilemma the moment you look at your roster on Tuesday. Undoubtedly, there’s a guy who scored enough points that could’ve flipped a loss to a win. But that’s the handoff as we process information each week.

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Past choices lead to future results. We’ve been doing this week in and week out for three months. But now, with the fantasy football playoffs right around the corner, the implications are bigger. The stakes feel higher. Plus, after some disappointing performances on Sunday, the panic some are feeling might be even greater.

Lamar Jackson: Dual-Threat or No-Threat QB?

There’s a classic scene from the sitcom Arrested Development where Lucille and Lindsay Bluth go to a restaurant, and the waitress asks Lucille if she wants a plate or a platter. Lucille’s response? “I don’t understand the question, and I won’t respond to it.” I had the same vibe while gathering notes to recap the Ravens’ game.

Things you didn’t expect: Tyrod Taylor is outpassing Lamar Jackson (102 to 59) and outrushing him (10 to 7). #Jets

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) November 23, 2025

I don’t know how to react to this type of play from Lamar Jackson. The almost surety of having him in your starting QB slot is gone. Regardless, the timing of his drop in production gives us some hints as to what’s ailing Baltimore’s primary passer.

EPA per Dropback: 0.36 (Weeks 1-3), -0.09 (Weeks 9-12)
Air Yards per Attempt: 9.6, 7.5
Third-Down Passing Conversion Rate: 41.7%, 20.6%

Jackson completed four TD throws in his primetime return to action against the Dolphins in Week 9. He’s done it once since then. In the meantime, his passing yardage totals have been under 200 in each game. As I indicated, the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the better part of a month has sapped him of his ability to throw downfield. However, if there was a silver lining, let’s look at the environments he’s played in over the last month.

Vikings DC Brian Flores blitzed Jackson on 60.6% of dropbacks in Week 10. The next Sunday, Myles Garrett and Co. were through the Ravens’ offensive line in less than 2.5 seconds on over half of their 14 pressures. In other words, he’s been through the wringer. In addition, through all the hits and sacks, at least one piece of Jackson’s game hasn’t changed.

Designed Rushing Rate: 9.8% (Weeks 1-3), 10.4% (Weeks 9-12)
Scrambles per Game: 1.7, 2.8
Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 31.6%, 19.6%

Despite seeing the same amount of pressure on a per-game basis, Jackson has taken fewer sacks. Said another way, that same hamstring hasn’t hampered his capacity to maneuver the pocket. OC Todd Monken is still dialing up Jackson’s number in the run game. More importantly, he’s still opting to take off on his own. The opportunities are still there for him, and Baltimore has multiple positive matchups heading into, and throughout, the playoffs. If there’s anyone worth betting on talent at this time of the season, it’s a two-time MVP.

The Rule of T-Law

One of my favorite parts of the 2024 season was the collection of Will Levis reaction memes we got after his various turnovers. The man was on an all-time run. Jaguars head coach Liam Coen is giving Levis a run for his money this year.

Unfortunately, Sunday wasn’t the first time we’ve seen the Jaguars’ play-caller animated (derogatory) on the sideline. And, no, it’s not solely because Coen’s top pass-catchers have been out of commission for stretches. Although the plight does add some context to the situation. In any case, as the clip suggests, his QB tends to evoke that type of response.

Interception Rate: 3.0%, 30th (out of 34 qualifiers – min. 192 dropbacks)
Completion Percentage Over Expected: -5.2%, 32nd
Sack Rate: 7.3%, 19th

Of course, those are just the raw numbers for Trevor Lawrence. When you filter for game situation, Coen’s reactions almost seem tame. Lawrence has the fifth-highest interception rate when his team is in the red zone. His 271 unrealized air yards in obvious passing situations rank seventh-most. Hopefully, your playoff hopes aren’t riding on Lawrence and Coen getting on the same page. However, the likelier scenario is that you’d be looking to Jacksonville’s backfield for production.

Rushing Success Rate (Since Week 4): 48.4%, 11th (in the league)
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 22.3%, 5th
Rushing YPG: 97.0, 14th

Coincidentally, the play-calling for the Jaguars has favored Travis Etienne Jr. Since their bye, their pass rate over expectation has sat at -4%. Week 12 was the first game in over a month where the game rested on Lawrence’s shoulder. Meanwhile, Etienne has spent three of the last four games inside the top 10. Bhayshul Tuten has re-emphasized his value as a contingent back, should the injury bug bite Etienne. In spite of the question mark under center, there are still parts of the offense we can roster.

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NFL news injury updates Lamar Jackson returns to practice while George Pickens is limited

Jakobi Meyers is running the in-breaking routes that brought Travis Hunter into the fantasy limelight. Parker Washington takes the out-breakers from the slot. And with Brenton Strange down the seam, each pass-catcher has enough of a role to keep them in the second or third tier of their respective positions. But with Lawrence piloting the offense, it’s fair to question if any of them can take advantage of their playoff matchups.

Bear-er of Bad News

“Young QBs love their tight ends.”

“A good WR1 is a new passer’s best friend.”

We’ve all heard the sayings. Simply put, there’s a common assumption that signal-callers will lock onto their best option. Or, they’ll find a safety valve. Essentially, somebody stands to benefit as the guy under center figures things out. Well, as we’ve known since he entered the league, Caleb Williams isn’t like every other young starter.

On the bright side, Williams has thrown eight touchdown passes in Chicago’s seven games since their bye. Even better, he’s only turned the ball over three times over that span. But six of those eight scores came in two contests. His fourth-quarter INT against the Ravens sealed the door shut on a comeback win. And, he’s good for (at least) one bonehead play per week. However, the larger sticking point for fantasy managers is how to deal with his pseudo-WR1.

Week 9: 6% (target share), 0 (PPR points), 97 (PPR Rank)
Week 10: 29%, 20.6, 8
Week 11: 21%, 6.1, 53
Week 12 30%, 8.3, 39

Rome Odunze’s dad can’t be too mad at his son’s workload now. The second-year WR has led the Bears’ WRs in targets in three of the last four weeks. However, they can both get in line behind all of the other frustrated folks looking to No. 15 for results. Be that as it may, Odunze is trying to learn as much as his QB is.

I believe Caleb Williams has largely outplayed the up-and-down, week-to-week discourse about his game this season

but the Steelers game was very much a “box score looked better than the actual performance”

the first half was rough. Downfield inaccuracy continues to pop pic.twitter.com/BQipe37DK2

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 24, 2025

Williams ranks 23rd out of 34 passers in completion percentage over expected since their bye. The farther downfield, the less likely he is to complete a pass. After his in-season break and a month and a half to re-acclimate, J.J. McCarthy (-0.25) is the only starter with a worse EPA per dropback on intermediate throws than Williams (0.06). So, with Odunze averaging 15.2 air yards per target, the rollercoaster won’t stop until the two get on the same page. But there’s some hope.

For all of Williams’ missteps as a passer, we can’t dismiss his progress managing the pocket. His second-ranked pressure-to-sack ratio in ’24 (28.2%) is less than half through three months (12.3%). The result is the Bears averaging nearly six more yards per drive (25.8 to 31.0) and totaling almost more red-zone plays in 12 games than all of last season (155 to 162). Chicago’s upcoming schedule leaves them even less margin for error. Still, for the types of environments they’ll face during the playoffs, Odunze’s volatile deployment may be what the Bears need to secure a wildcard spot.

The WR1 for Arizona is…

I mean, without question, the answer has to be Michael Wilson.

The Cardinals’ WR2 has ascended into the primary spot in Marvin Harrison Jr.’s absence. Wilson has secured double-digit targets in back-to-back games, something the former Buckeye wasn’t able to do until right before his appendix started to act up. But the Wilson phenomenon isn’t riding just on volume.

Keeping the limited sample size in mind, Wilson’s 3.06 yards per route run with Jacoby Brissett more than doubles Harrison’s three-game stretch with the same QB (1.51). Brissett has targeted Wilson in 11 contested-catch situations, resulting in nine receptions. Harrison is yet to connect with his new QB in the same scenario. Everything’s clicked between the “backups.” Even stranger, it’s not like the offense has changed with the Stanford Cardinal becoming the star of the Arizona Cardinals.

Slot Rate (w/ Brissett): 15.8% (Harrison, Weeks 7-10), 15.7% (Wilson, Weeks 11-12)
Air Yards per Target: 12.9, 11.9
Most Common Route: Hitch – 32.1%, Hitch, 30.3%

The good news is that explosive plays or long runs after the catch aren’t buoying Wilson’s results. As I mentioned, winning reps in tight coverage and fighting for first downs have been all over his tape for the last two weeks. But he can’t hoard the WR looks forever.

If not this week, Harrison should return during the fantasy playoffs. I’m not advocating for starting him. At best, it puts a damper on Wilson’s prospects when we need him most. However, during the recap show on Sunday night, I outlined a path for both WRs (and Trey McBride) to continue producing. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. And while we may still look at Harrison as the WR1, his role with Wilson may need to change in order for the offense to truly function.