Football Recruiting Shocker: Top Prospective Players Make Unexpected Decisions

As we turn our attention toward the season opener against Montana State on August 30th, where does Oregon’s baseline in high school recruiting sit? The answer: a very good place.

With how accelerated the recruiting calendar is nowadays, by the time August rolls around the 2026 high school class is largely set. Teams may rise or fall a few spots during the season if recruits flip after strong on-field performances, but as of this writing only 9 of 247Sports’ top 247 recruits remain uncommitted. The baseline for high school classes across college football has already been established.

As the leaves begin to turn and autumn’s chill sneaks in, football programs across the nation find themselves at a crossroads — the frantic pace of summer recruiting slows, and the focus shifts squarely to the gridiron battles ahead. The 2026 high school recruiting class, long the subject of feverish speculation, has mostly taken shape, with few top prospects left unclaimed. In this landscape, Oregon’s recruiting situation is a fascinating study. Despite fielding one of the smallest groups nationally, the Ducks boast a class dripping with talent, boasting the highest average player rating in all of college football. Their strategy, after stacking depth in earlier cycles, now aims at landing elite contributors, setting the stage for what could be a quietly dominant force in the coming years. But just how high can Oregon’s star rise in this crowded and competitive arena? The answer reveals both the promise and challenges that lie ahead for Dan Lanning’s squad. LEARN MORE

With Fall Camp well underway, the summer recruiting season has slowed down as coaches and players shift their focus to the upcoming season—whether in college or their senior year of high school.

A more realistic projection has Oregon finishing somewhere between 5th and 8th. Considering the youth and depth of the current roster—and the Ducks’ proven ability to pull talent from the transfer portal—finishing in the Top 8 of the high school rankings while maintaining the highest average player rating would mark an extremely successful recruiting cycle.

For context, the current Top 4 all have 27 or more commits, while Oregon’s final class will likely max out at 20–21 players.

What makes Oregon’s class stand out is the quality of the players being brought in. The Ducks currently lead all of college football with the highest average player rating at 94.39, meaning the average player in this class is a very high 4-star prospect. For comparison, LSU sits second nationally at 93.48 (still a high 4-star average), while Ohio State is 2nd in the Big Ten and has an average rating of 92.26, a mid 4-star.

Given Oregon is taking a smaller class this year, their ceiling in the overall rankings is somewhat limited. If “flip season” goes perfectly and the Ducks land every target they’re pursuing, they could climb as high as 3rd nationally while still holding the nation’s best average player rating. That scenario would require nearly everything to break their way.

After signing 56 total players in the 2023 and 2024 cycles (Dan Lanning’s first two full recruiting classes) with average ratings of 90.90 and 92.19, Oregon built up depth to where it needed to be. Now, Lanning and his personnel staff have shifted toward landing as many elite, difference-making players as possible—unlike another West Coast program that hired a coach in 2021 and appears to be doing the opposite.