Friday Night Showdown: Can the Blue Jays and Mariners Pull Off Stunning Upsets Against Red Sox and Rangers?

Is it just me, or do the “dog days of summer” feel like being stuck in sports betting purgatory? With the NFL and college hoops on hiatus, and only MLB and the PGA TOUR left to gamble on, it kinda feels like watching paint dry—except the paint is moving slowly and the stakes are your wallet. Sure, Saratoga Race Course is about to open and horses will offer some distraction, but let’s be honest: the offseasons stretch on, leaving a gnawing void for a die-hard bettor like me. Still, if my two picks on Friday’s MLB card hit – and they will if luck’s on my side – you better believe I’ll be wagering on baseball until pigskin finally returns in glory. The plan? Bank those MLB bucks and roll them straight into NFL and college football futures come August. Because why not squeeze every drop of thrill out of a summer that’s otherwise a gambler’s desert? Ready to dive into some sharp analysis on Berrios’s dominance over Boston and why Gilbert’s pitching magic spells trouble for Texas? Let’s break it down. LEARN MORE.

It’s the “dog days of summer,” aka there is nothing to bet on besides MLB and the PGA TOUR, and I’m in hell. Granted, the Saratoga Race Course opens in a couple of weeks, so I can start betting on the ponies. But, as depressing as this sounds, there is a huge hole in my life during the football and basketball offseasons since sports betting is my biggest hobby. 

That said, if I hit my two looks on Friday’s MLB card, you bet your a** I’ll keep gambling on baseball. There are another two months before football starts, and I’d love to use my MLB winnings on NFL and college football futures later this summer. 

Since acquiring Berrios in 2021, Toronto is 8-3 when he starts vs. the Red Sox, including five in a row, and 5-1 in Berrios’ trips to Fenway Park. He’s allowed just three earned runs on 11 hits and four walks with 10 strikeouts in 13.2 innings and two starts against Boston this year. Berrios has a better exit velocity and K-BB% vs. active Red Sox than Bello against the Blue Jays, per Statcast. 

Plus, Boston’s bats have been ice-cold lately. Over the past two weeks, the Red Sox are 29th in WAR and wRC+, and 28th in K/BB rate, according to FanGraphs. Finally, the Blue Jays out-rank Boston in wRC+ (102-95) and have better plate discipline (0.46-0.34 BB/K rate) against right-handed pitching. 

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Gilbert has dominated Texas’s lineup over his last five starts, while Eovaldi has struggled against Seattle. Eovaldi has a 7.25 ERA in his previous five starts vs. the Mariners with three straight losses. Gilbert has won three in a row against the Rangers and has a 1.99 ERA and 34/6 K/BB rate over his last five outings vs. Texas. 

This is Eovaldi’s first start since last month after missing time with a triceps injury. Yet, the Rangers have a good bullpen and an off-day Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested. Regardless, this is a “good spot” for Gilbert. The Mariners are 10-4 as short road favorites (-130 or less) with him on the bump and a +3.2 run margin. 

Also, Seattle’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners are seventh in wRC+, eighth in hard-hit rate, and 10th in wOBA vs. righties, whereas the Rangers are 15th in hard-hit rate, 26th in wRC+, and 27th in wOBA. 

Finally, the market is backing Seattle, and I’m more willing to follow line movement in regular-season MLB because the public only moves odds in the NFL and the playoffs for other leagues. Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making oddsmaker, opened this game at even-money (+100), and the Mariners are slight favorites (-120-ish) at the time of writing. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.