Game 3 Showdown: Will the Blue Jays or Yankees Ignite an Unforgettable Slugfest?

The New York Yankees find themselves staring down the barrel, backs pressed against the wall, as they desperately try to dodge a sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays in this 2025 ALDS best-of-five series . Can Carlos Rodon, the Yankees’ hope on the mound with his solid season stats, halt the Blue Jays’ momentum — or will Shane Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, seal New York’s fate? The Blue Jays have already battered the Pinstripes with a combined 23-8 score in the first two games, powered by Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s relentless assault. It begs the question — with such offensive firepower on both sides and pitching struggles that have been well-documented, are we set for another slugfest rather than a pitcher’s duel? With the stakes this high, and runs piling up early, it’s hard not to lean into the chaos rather than clutching the usual playoff clichés. Buckle up, this isn’t your typical game night. LEARN MORE.

The New York Yankees‘ backs are against the wall as they try to prevent a Toronto Blue Jays (2-0) sweep in the best-of-five 2025 ALDS Tuesday. New York hopes that starting LHP Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09 ERA in the regular season) can stave off elimination. Toronto sends out 2020 AL Cy Young-winning RHP Shane Bieber (4-2 with a 3.57 ERA) to finish the job.

The Blue Jays raked the Yankees in Games 1-2 by a combined score of 23-8. Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is absolutely dominating the Pinstripes. Guerrero is 6-for-9 in this series with two home runs and six RBI. The only positive for the Yankees in this series is they haven’t used their best relievers since the Blue Jays put these games away before the high-leverage innings.

It’s square, but I’m taking the OVER 8 (-102), up to 8 (-120). Usually, you want to bet Unders in clinch games. Nonetheless, nine of the 15 Blue Jays-Yankees meetings in the regular season and playoffs have gone Over this number (one had exactly eight runs scored), including the first two games of this series, obviously.

Toronto has owned Rodon in their last five meetings. Over that span, Rodon has a 6.66 ERA vs. the Blue Jays and hasn’t completed six innings. Meanwhile, Toronto’s lineup is fourth in MLB in wRC+ and wOBA against left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. Guerrero in particular smacks Rodon around the ballpark.

Also, Bieber is living off his 2021 AL Cy Young campaign when, in reality, his stuff has lost a little nastiness. Per Statcast, Bieber’s expected ERA, hard-hit rate, and chase rate are below league-average. Plus, the Yankees lead baseball in wRC+, wOBA, and hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching.

Ultimately, both teams have too much firepower for this to turn into a pitcher’s duel. Rodon’s Blue Jays woes and Bieber’s declining stuff point to another high-scoring game, especially with New York desperate to avoid a sweep.

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