Game 6 Showdowns: Can the Underdogs Shock the NBA Playoffs on Thursday?

With the Kentucky Derby galloping into the weekend, my betting itch has officially kicked in—responsibly, of course. Here’s the kicker: whatever I rake in (or lose) on these pivotal Game 6’s Thursday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, that bankroll is either heading straight to the paddock Saturday or doubling down on a comeback attempt with the ponies. Is this a sign of responsible gambling or a one-way ticket on the rollercoaster of “healthy behavior”? Hard to say, but who cares when the thrill’s this good? The Knicks and Pistons are set for an intriguing face-off in Detroit, where the Garden’s weird energy might just flip the script, especially with Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns ready to seize the moment. Meanwhile, Denver’s poised to close out the Clippers, as Jamal Murray looks like he’s fully unleashed and Los Angeles’s James Harden struggles to find his footing—again. So, buckle up for a Thursday that blends high stakes, clutch performances, and a dash of that gambler’s gut feeling that simply can’t be ignored.

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With the Kentucky Derby running this weekend, I’m in the gambling mood (responsibly, of course). Whatever money won on these two Game 6’s Thursday in the 2025 NBA Playoffs, I’ll invest in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday or, if I lose money betting basketball, I’ll try to win it back on the ponies. Is this “healthy behavior?” Who’s to say? Will I have fun? You bet. 

The odds are the best available at the time of writing. 

New York (3-2) “played with its food,” so to speak, and goes to Detroit for Game 6. Granted, losing at home is a bad look, but the Knicks have as good of a chance of eliminating the Pistons in Motown as The Garden. NYK gets tight at home and there is weird energy in Madison Square Garden when they struggle in big games. 

Also, Detroit is a year away because All-Star PG Cade Cunningham just doesn’t have enough help. Pistons third-year SG Jaden Ivey, who has been sidelined since January with a broken leg, could turn into Cade’s Robin next season. But, Detroit SGs Tim Hardaway Jr. and Malik Beasley are shooting terribly in this series, and are being guarded by good defenders. 

Furthermore, as seen in the fourth quarter of Game 4, New York All-Stars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns can take over games late. Brunson scored a game-high 15 points in the final frame of Game 4 and KAT added 8 points with two clutch buckets. 

Speaking of “weird energy,” the Pistons haven’t won a playoff game at home since 2008. Ultimately, the Knicks aren’t afraid to go on the road, and they can take the Detroit crowd out of Game 6 with a hot start. But, if that doesn’t happen, NYK has Brunson, the 2024-25 NBA Clutch Player of the Year, to rely on. 

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This is a close-out game for Denver (3-2), whose second scoring option (PG Jamal Murray) showed up for Game 5. In comparison, Los Angeles’s second scoring option (All-Star PG James Harden) is predictably pooping himself in the postseason, again. 

Murray lit the Clippers up, scoring a game-high 43 points on 65.4% shooting Tuesday, while Harden had 11 points on 3-for-9 shooting. Since Nikola Jokić and Kawhi Leonard are almost guaranteed to play well, their supporting cast, Murray and Harden in particular, will decide this series. 

The Nuggets can eliminate the Clippers on Thursday because Murray averages 24.6 points per game (PPG) on 60.5% true shooting (.484/.447/.933). Harden is scoring 19.2 PPG, third on the team with the second-highest usage rate in this series. The Beard scored the fewest points among LAC’s Game 5 starters. 

He spent the most time guarding Jokic in Game 5 since Harden can’t defend ball-handlers, e.g., Murray. Jokic will abuse Harden if Los Angeles head coach Ty Lue tries that again Thursday. Lue should bench Harden because he needs the ball to be effective and Clippers SG Norman Powell should get more touches. 

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Finally, -6.5 (down to -5.5) is too big of a spread for LAC to cover. They’d prefer to slow this game down because Denver averaged the most fastbreak PPG during the regular season, and Kawhi and Harden like to operate in the half-court. Yet, the Nuggets have more continuity and size, and better 3-point shooting. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my NBA 2024-25 betting record via X all season.