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Hidden Contenders and Shocking Snubs: Which NFL Teams Are Poised to Clash in the Playoffs?
So here we are, dusting off the midway mark of the NFL regular season—and suddenly that elusive playoff picture doesn’t feel so blurry anymore. Some teams, like the Eagles and Patriots, seem like they’ve punched their ticket already, while others linger in the shadows, hoping for a little fortune to tip the scales their way. But here’s the kicker: not all that glitters is gold—and some underdog squads are quietly sharpening their claws for one heck of a postseason surprise. Using a blend of cutting-edge playoff projections and the TRACR team ratings—which cleverly factor in everything from roster talent to grind-it-out performance—we get a peek beyond the win-loss records to unearth who’s really poised to make noise, and who might just be a mirage in the fog. Ready to dive into some unexpected stats and shake up your playoff expectations? Let’s break it down. LEARN MORE
We’re more than halfway through the NFL regular season. Which teams are in a strong position to make the playoffs and which will need some help?
We’ve reached the point in the NFL season when the playoff picture starts coming into focus.
The Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots are making the playoffs. The same is probably true for the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks.
Several more teams should feel really good about their playoff chances, as our supercomputer suggests 10 teams have a playoff percentage of 75.0% or higher.
However, some of the teams that appear to be in a good spot at the moment may find themselves more at risk of missing the playoffs than the consensus would suggest. Conversely, some teams that are not currently in a playoff position are poised to make a run.
By using our supercomputer’s playoff projections and TRACR, our team ratings that incorporate individual talent on a roster and team performance, we can go beyond the current standings and project what is likely to happen over the duration of the regular season.
Here are some of the numbers that may seem surprising at first glance.
The 49ers Are Projected to Make the Playoffs
Since our projections take injuries into account, you’d think the supercomputer would be pessimistic about the San Francisco 49ers.
After all, no team has dealt with the onslaught of injuries quite like the 49ers. They’ve lost defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and first-round pick Mykel Williams for the season and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Yet, the 49ers still have a 65.5% chance to make the playoffs and are the current favorites for the No. 7 seed.
Defensively, it will be tough for the 49ers to recover from all the injuries. But offensively, San Francisco’s players are starting to come back, and TRACR ranks the 49ers as the team with the most offensive talent in the NFL.
George Kittle returned for Week 10 and promptly caught all nine of his targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Christian McCaffrey (rightfully) gets a lot of attention for his versatility, but Kittle is a skeleton key for the offense in his own right. His abilities as a blocker and pass catcher open a lot of doors for Kyle Shanahan.
Ricky Pearsall should be back soon as well, giving the 49ers another great weapon. Brock Purdy is nearing a return, although Mac Jones has played well enough in Purdy’s absence to mitigate his loss somewhat. Trent Williams may not be in his prime, but he’s still one of the best left tackles in the league.
The 49ers also played a front-loaded schedule. Right now, the NFC is basically eight teams vying for seven playoff spots, as the Carolina Panthers have the ninth-best playoff odds at just 25.0%. There’s a good chance the 49ers end up fighting the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot in the conference, and the schedule gives San Francisco the edge there.
The Bears have a half-game advantage over the 49ers, but they have four games remaining against teams ranked in the top five in TRACR (two against the Green Bay Packers and one each against the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions).
The 49ers, meanwhile, only have one, and have a good chance to gain ground over their next four games against the Arizona Cardinals, Panthers, Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans. Notably, the teams also play each other in what could be a crucial game in Week 17.
If Chicago fans are looking for any comfort, the Bears are still slightly over a toss-up to make the playoffs because they likely just need to hold off either the 49ers or the seemingly tumbling Packers, or they could even catch the Lions.
With the disappointing seasons so far for the Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons, the top eight teams are all in a better spot when it comes to jockeying for playoff positioning.
The Ravens and Chiefs Are Elite, but Could Miss the Playoffs
It seems odd that two teams ranked in the top eight in the NFL are in danger of missing the playoffs in the same conference, but that is the case with the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s start with the Ravens, who are a more straightforward case. Lamar Jackson got hurt in a Week 4 loss to the Chiefs that dropped Baltimore to 1-3, with all three losses coming against great teams.
The team then lost two more with Cooper Rush at QB, falling to 1-5 before Tyler Huntley led a key victory against the Bears. So the team sat 2-5 when Jackson came back, but the two ugly losses without Jackson don’t hold as much weight in the team’s overall ranking (fifth).
But those losses still count in the standings. So even after two comfortable wins, with Jackson back, the Ravens still sit at 4-5.
Fortunately for Baltimore, no team has run away with the AFC North. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the division at just 5-4, and the teams still play each other twice. Win both of those, and the Ravens are in a prime position to win the division.
The 4-5 start, though, leaves little room for error. If the Ravens lost both of those games, they’d be in massive trouble. Even if they split, the rest of the schedule is a mixed bag. There are easy games the next two weeks with the Browns and New York Jets, but the Ravens still have the Packers and Patriots on the schedule as well.
Needless to say, Baltimore needs Lamar to stay healthy. The Ravens may be one of the best teams in the league, but you can’t win the championship if you don’t make the playoffs. Currently, the Ravens have a 51.6% chance of making it to the postseason.
The Chiefs have an even lower chance of making the playoffs, according to our supercomputer, at 45.5%. This may be a surprise considering they are one game ahead of the Ravens in the standings and have mostly righted the ship after a slow start.
But the Chiefs don’t play in the AFC North. Almost all of the Ravens’ playoff odds come from winning the division and that path is likely shut off to the Chiefs with the Denver Broncos at 8-2 and the Los Angeles Chargers at 7-3.
The Chiefs’ chances of winning the AFC West are under 10%.
The division comes into play again when looking at the schedule, which still features two games against the Broncos and one against the Chargers in addition to the Indianapolis Colts. A loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team the Chiefs are tied with for the seventh spot in the playoffs, doesn’t help the tiebreaker situation, either.
We’d never count out Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but it’s an uphill climb for the defending AFC champions.
The Daniel Jones Question Lingers for the Colts
There shouldn’t be much drama about whether the Colts make the playoffs. They have the fifth-best playoff odds in the NFL at 88.1% and are still a strong AFC South favorite at 64.1%. An 8-2 start puts them in position to finish the season near the top of the standings.
But TRACR still isn’t convinced that the Colts are an upper-echelon team in the NFL. In fact, they are currently ranked 19th.
A lot of that has to do with skepticism about the most important position. Daniel Jones is off to an excellent start statistically and deserves a ton of credit for how he’s run Shane Steichen’s system thus far.
But projection models are always going to be skeptical of a player who has struggled for several years before turning his play around for 10 games. The Colts have also played just one team in TRACR’s top 10 so far and lost that game in Week 4 to the Los Angeles Rams.
Meanwhile, half of their wins have come against teams in the bottom five in TRACR (two against the Titans and one each against the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders).
Jones has a lot of talent around him and has put the ball in the hands of his great supporting cast. Everyone knows how dominant Jonathan Taylor is by now, but it’s important to attribute credit to an offensive line that some questioned heading into the season as well.
The Colts’ pass catchers all complement each other well, with Michael Pittman as a big target, Josh Downs as a technician and Alec Pierce as a downfield threat who has a lot more nuance to his game than most players in his mold. Add in rookie sensation Tyler Warren’s receiving ability and there’s a lot to like about what is around Jones currently.
But Jones will have to prove he can produce against tougher competition, and he’ll have the opportunity to do so. The Colts have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL the rest of the season when sorted by the combined record of future opponents. Four of their eight remaining games are against teams in the top 10 in TRACR.
If the Colts continue to hum offensively during that stretch, the team’s TRACR will undoubtedly rise. But, as of now, Indiana Jones still has a lot left to prove, even after a hot start.
For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
The post NFL Playoff Predictions: Which Teams Project to Make the Postseason? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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