How I Realized the Guardians Were Outsmarting Everyone All Along

So here we are, folks—Game 3 between the Tigers and Guardians, 3:00 ET. If you thought the Wild Card round couldn’t get any juicier after the Dodgers dispatched the Reds with a surprising flop-fest on offense, think again. The Tigers, who I’ve been touting all season for their potential, suddenly look like they’ve misplaced their bats somewhere between innings. With just three measly runs over two games, their offense is on life support, and their ace pitcher Jack Flaherty? Let’s just say his numbers against Cleveland this year read like a horror story. Meanwhile, the Guardians, having clawed their way back to take the division from Detroit, look sharper—and maybe hungrier—than ever. Can the Tigers dig deep and slap some hits on the board, or will the Guardians cruise to victory and leave us shaking our heads? It’s a tightrope walk, with pitching performances swinging wildly and errors creeping in like uninvited guests. I’m leaning towards the Guardians, but hey, that’s just me. Ready to dive into the nitty-gritty and figure out where the smart money lands? Let’s get to it. LEARN MORE.

Tigers vs. Guardians, 3:00 ET

We had one of the Wild Card round series close out last night as the Dodgers took down the Reds. It wasn’t exactly easy, but it was easy enough for the defending champs as they racked up 18 runs in the two games. This is pretty much the only series with offensive firepower as the other games have been relatively low scoring. I took the Tigers to win the game yesterday, and I was wrong. The Guardians won the game and now pushed it to a decisive Game 3. Let’s take a look at how we should bet Game 3 between the Tigers and Guardians.

The Tigers couldn’t get any offense going yesterday. In fairness, they really didn’t get much going in the first game of the series either. They have now scored a total of three runs in the two games. I’ve said the entire year that the downfall of this team would be their offense. They just don’t seem to be consistent enough. Despite having a hot start to the season, they struggled to maintain that effectiveness throughout much of the second half of the year. Their pitching, outside of Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize, also left a lot to be desired. One guy who hasn’t been consistent enough is today’s starter, Jack Flaherty. The Tigers send the right-hander to the hill today, and he brings a season in which he went 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. He did finish 19th in strikeouts for the year, but the Guardians were middle of the pack, so it might not matter if he is good at that. He has been a full run worse on the road than he has at home and the Tigers have lost all three of his starts against Cleveland this year. He went a total of 16 innings and allowed seven earned runs to the Guardians. His last two starts of the season were against them as well, and while none of them were terrible starts, he doesn’t seem to get run support when he faces the Guardians. The total combined score of those games was Guardians 16, Tigers 1.

The Guardians stormed back to take the division from the Tigers, which is why they are hosting this series. Even though I picked the Tigers, if I am being honest, I probably need to admit that the Guardians have looked like the better team in this series. In the first game, the Guardians had to face Skubal, which is never an easy task. They allowed two unearned runs – so essentially, they beat themselves more than getting beaten by the Tigers. They made another two errors yesterday, and they certainly need to clean that up. However, the team was finally able to generate some runs late in the game. This was a 1-1 game until the bottom of the 8th inning when the Guardians broke it open. The reality for the Tigers is that they can’t be too scared to pitch to Jose Ramirez, he was on base three times with walks yesterday. The Guardians today send out Slade Cecconi to the mound. He is 7-7 for the season with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. He is a bit inconsistent as a starter with some very nice games and then some real stinkers. In September, for example, he allowed seven, none, two, none, and four earned runs in his five games.

This should be a tight contest, even with both starters on the hill, so the under 7.5 looks like a good option. I’m not sure that I want to back off the Tigers, but the reality is that the Guardians have been the better team. I think they probably win this game, and I’m going to just take them here and get out of my future. If you don’t have a future on the Tigers, even better. If you have one on the Guardians, you should be able to assure yourself of profit if you bet on the Tigers.

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