How the Yankees Turned Missing Out on Juan Soto Into Their Greatest Advantage Yet

Sometimes, the smartest plays are the ones you never actually make — a curious paradox in the high-stakes world of baseball trades and contracts. Early returns this season suggest the New York Yankees might just be breathing a sigh of relief for not securing Juan Soto’s monumental deal — a jaw-dropping 15-year, $765 million contract he ultimately inked with the Mets, despite a slightly longer, $760 million offer on the table from the Bronx Bombers. Sure, we’re only scratching the surface of the season here — it’s a tiny sample — but the Yankees’ nimble pivot after Soto’s departure has been nothing short of remarkable.

Instead of tying up the bank in one mega-contract, the Yankees redirected their resources, investing in a quartet of strategic signings and trades that, collectively, are propelling them to a commanding position atop the American League East. Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Cody Bellinger, and Devin Williams — these names might not carry Soto’s marquee allure, but their combined presence has given the team a versatile edge at a fraction of the long-term commitment. With a significant lead over their rivals and a roster balanced between solid defense and offensive firepower, the Yankees are showcasing a masterclass in savvy roster engineering. Meanwhile, Soto chip-shots a respectable line but with less impact than expected so far this year, while Aaron Judge continues to blaze trails for New York’s cross-town competition.

There’s no denying it: in this moment, the scales tip in favor of the Yanks. Of course, time will tell if this early advantage holds — baseball is a long season, filled with its twists and turns — but for now, it appears that sometimes, passing on the “big fish” and opting for a more diversified approach might just be the smartest gamble of all.

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Sometimes, as the saying goes, the best deals are the ones you don’t make.

It’s a small sample size and very early in the process, but so far, the New York Yankees are fortunate to have not signed Juan Soto. Soto chose the New York Mets for a 15-year, $765 million contract, shunning an offer to return to the Yankees for 16 years, $760 million.

No question the Yanks wanted to keep Soto. They went to the World Series last fall for the first time since 2009 with Soto hitting ahead of Aaron Judge in the lineup, but lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games. When Soto then became a free agent and signed with Mets, the Yankees pivoted and spent a portion of that money elsewhere, signing Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt as free agents and trading for Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams for a projected outlay of $283 million.

The team they built is running away with the American League East at a fraction of the long-term cost of a deal with Soto. They lead the fourth-place Boston Red Sox by nine games already and are playing them for the first time in 2025 this weekend at Yankee Stadium.

Soto is batting .232 with 11 homers, 31 RBIs and an .802 OPS so far this season; he will get better and is doing so already with three homers in his last five games through Wednesday night. Judge, playing without him, is having another monster season as the Mets have been jockeying for first place in the National League East with the Philadelphia Phillies. Judge’s OPS: 1.237.

Thus far, advantage Yankees.

“It seems that way now,” David Cone, the former Yankees pitcher and currently ESPN and Yes Network color analyst, said in an interview this past weekend at Dodger Stadium. “Ten years from now we’ll make that judgment, but this year, the first half of the season? Absolutely.”

For the Yanks, of course, this is a very short-term snapshot. Fried is signed for eight years, $218 million. But he has his own history of left arm problems, including Tommy John ligament replacement surgery that caused him to miss 2015 as a prospect with the San Diego Padres and a forearm issue that cost a month last season with the Atlanta Braves.

Bellinger ($26.7 million), Goldschmidt ($12.5 million) and Williams ($8.6 million) can all walk away after this season. Goldschmidt and Williams are unrestricted free agents on one-year deals. Bellinger has the second of two player options his agent Scott Boras threaded into the three-year, $80 million deal he signed in 2024 with the Chicago Cubs. Bellinger is the fourth highest-paid player this season on the team behind Judge ($40 million), Fried ($27.3 million) and Carlos Rodon ($27 million).

Those potential departures give the Yankees some maneuverability next offseason in the free agent market and financial room this year to upgrade at the July 31 trade deadline.

The Yankees have the third-highest payroll in Major League Baseball for luxury tax purposes at $310.9 million, according to Spotrac, and the team is putting on a master class in short-term roster construction under today’s collectively-bargained system. The Yanks spent $74.6 million on Fried, Bellinger, Goldschmidt and Williams, while Soto is earning $61.2 million alone from the Mets for luxury tax purposes.

“They’ve done very well with the money they spent this year, no question about it,” Cone said. “The Yankees are much more well-rounded defensively. [Former Yanks, Mets and current A’s pitcher] Luis Severino said the Yankees last year were a team with only two hitters: Judge and Soto. They’ve caught up with the Dodgers offensively and depth-wise.”

Fried wouldn’t be in New York had Soto chosen the Yankees.

At the time, the contract conversations with both players were occurring on concurrent tracks. Fried was New York’s second choice. It was universally considered that Fried wanted to play where he grew up, in the Los Angeles area. But he also let it be known to the Yanks he was very much in favor of playing in the Bronx.

“Mostly I had a bunch of meetings, but before making a decision, I was just waiting for Soto to sign,” Fried said this past weekend at Dodger Stadium.

Soto announced his decision on Dec. 8 at the Winter Meetings in Dallas and two days later Fried signed with the Yankees. The dominoes then started to fall. On Dec. 13 Williams was obtained in a trade with Milwaukee and Bellinger came over from the Cubs four days later. Goldschmidt was the last to sign on Dec. 30.

With that the Yankees closed shop for the offseason.

While Williams has struggled at times in his back of the bullpen role, the other three have exceeded expectations. Fried, for one, replaced the injured Gerrit Cole and opened 7-0 with a 1.28 ERA before losing to the Dodgers this past Friday.

His experience pitching at Yankee Stadium has exceeded his expectations.

“I love it,” Fried said. “I’m very happy with where I’m at. Everything happened for a reason. I’m just happy I’m here with the Yankees.”

The Yankees are happy to have him. In this case, sometimes the best deals are the ones you make.