How We Turned the Tables: Monday’s NBA Bets That Could Change Everything

Isn’t it funny how every time I crow about my winning NBA bets, karma sneaks in and knocks me below .500? Four losses on the trot on X have me rethinking the whole hustle—guess the basketball gods enjoy a good laugh. So, here’s the deal: I’m no longer winging wagers when a key player’s “questionable” — because let’s face it, betting without certainty is like shooting in the dark. Instead, I’m holding back, laying out why I’m leaning toward a team, and dropping my picks only if the lineup checks out. With that cleared up, I’m sharing two Monday looks—one locked in, the other on ice—starting with the Detroit Pistons who might just capitalize on Memphis’s bad mojo and injury woes. Curious how this all shakes out? LEARN MORE.

Like clockwork, as soon as I mentioned my winning betting record in the NBA, I immediately went back below .500. Granted, I didn’t besmirch this good website’s reputation by giving out my crappy basketball bets. However, I’m on a four-game losing skid with the bets I’ve given out on X. That said, in an effort to actually win money on this racket, I’m putting stipulations on my NBA bets.

Meaning, I’m not gambling on player availability. For example, a key player is “questionable” for one of the sides I like Monday. Rather than lock in a bet now, I’ll give my reasons for leaning toward that team and post the bet on X if that key player is in the starting 5. Without further ado, here are my two tentative looks for Monday (the first is official, the other is pending).

*The Detroit Pistons wager below was posted on X (@Geoffery_Clark) late Sunday night on the West Coast.

There is bad juju in Memphis. The Grizzlies have lost three of their past four games and have failed to cover the spread in all four. Memphis has four rotation players out with injury, and All-Star PG Ja Morant was suspended for Sunday’s 117-104 loss to the Toronto Raptors for conduct detrimental to the team.

After the Grizzlies’ 117-112 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers, Ja threw the coaching staff under the bus when asked about the loss postgame. Plus, this is Memphis’s fourth game in the last six nights, whereas this is Detroit’s third game over that span.

The Pistons are taking 6.5 more shots per game than their opponents because they have a +3.8 rebound margin per game. Detroit is third in offensive rebounding rate, and the Grizzlies are missing starting C Zach Edey. Pistons C Jalen Duren is a monster right now, averaging 17.8 points and 10.0 rebounds in just 23.7 minutes per game.

Additionally, the Grizzlies tend to capitalize on transition opportunities, but Detroit plays strong fastbreak defense. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Memphis leads the NBA in fastbreak offensive efficiency, and the Pistons were ninth in fastbreak defensive efficiency last season and fourth so far this season.

It’s tough for the Grizzlies to get out in transition if they need more bodies to hit the boards. If Memphis doesn’t gang-rebound, Detroit will score mad second-chance points. The Pistons are fifth in putback points per miss, per CTG. Finally, I can count on Detroit bringing energy Monday, compared to the Grizzlies, who aren’t locked in at the moment.

*I’m only betting Sacramento if Kings SG Zach LaVine plays Monday.

Denver has won five straight meetings with Sacramento, but the last four have been by single digits. The Nuggets were -8 favorites the last time they hosted the Kings. Both were missing key players, such as Kings big Domantas Sabonis and Nuggets PF Aaron Gordon. Yet, Sabonis is a bigger loss because he is Sacramento’s best player, and Denver still had Nikola Jokić.

I have a hunch Sabonis gets up for this matchup because Jokic has replaced Domantas’s father, Arvydas, as the best European big in basketball history. Jokic is 12-8 vs. Sabonis in their careers. But Sabonis usually puts up a double-double when they meet, and averages more rebounds per game than Jokic in their meetings.

Also, while the Nuggets are a legit title contender, their power rating is a little inflated because they’ve beaten up on bad teams so far. Denver is 26th in strength of schedule. The Nuggets lost to the only good team they’ve faced, the Golden State Warriors, 137-131.

The Kings, on the other hand, have played the seventh-toughest schedule. Denver has allowed the fourth-most “wide-open” 3-point attempts per game (defined by the 3-point shooter having at least 6 feet of free space), but its opponents are only hitting 30.1% of those shots, which is the third-lowest rate. That speaks to how fortunate the Nuggets have been.

The Nuggets are 24th in 3-point attempts allowed per game. It’s tough to cover as a big favorite if you’re allowing that many 3-pointers. Sactown is 11th in field goal shooting, and Denver is taking 2.4 fewer shots per game. So, if the Nuggets have a subpar shooting night, they aren’t covering as a double-digit favorite because they’ll have fewer looks.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.