Inside Circa Million VII: The Surprising Survivor Picks That Could Shake Up NFL Week 4

Ever wonder how someone can rack up the worst bets week after week and still walk away with a winning record? Well, that’s exactly where I find myself heading into Week 4 of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest—and yeah, I’m still alive in Survivor too. Somehow, despite my penchant for picking the underdogs that bite back, I’m handicapping my a** off and seeing the board with a clarity that surprises even me. Already locked in a win from Thursday Night Football—my specialty, if I say so myself—I’m ready to break down my next four picks and reveal the team I’m banking on in the Survivor league. Buckle up, because these picks come wrapped in confidence and a healthy dose of guts. Curious how I navigate the chaos of the NFL betting world this season? Dive in, and let’s get you up to speed. LEARN MORE.

Even though I’ve taken the worst bet on each week this season, I still have a winning record entering Week 4 of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest, and I’m alive in Survivor. Hence, I’m handicapping my a** off, and seeing the board clearly.

Speaking of which, I’ve banked a win already this week by nailing yet another Thursday Night Football game. Without further ado, let’s discuss my remaining four selections for the Circa Million VII and the team I’m using for the Survivor league.

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

I wrote hundreds of words on why Carolina’s spread was the first NFL bet I made this week. But the gist of my analysis is: “-5.5 is too many points for a New England team that hasn’t proven anything”. My model makes these teams equal on a neutral field, and the Panthers have a better roster. Everyone loves Patriots QB Drake Maye, but he’s only 4-11 as a starter, so how good is he?

(LISTEN to Panthers-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

The self-anointed King of Thursday Night Football (me) prevailed again when Seattle held off Arizona in a 23-20 win. One of the best feelings in sports betting is going into the weekend with a win banked in the NFL, which is my specialty. Since 2023, I’m 19-2 on sides and total bets on Thursday Night Football and a perfect 4-0 this season.

Minnesota should stomp Pittsburgh Sunday. The Vikings have one of the best offensive rosters in the league with one of the best playcallers in the NFL, which is a factor for these unusual work weeks. Aaron Rodgers isn’t athletic enough for this defense, and Minnesota shut him down when they met in London last season.

(LISTEN to Vikings-Steelers analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark).

Baker Mayfield has been Tampa Bay’s starter since 2023. Over that span, the Buccaneers are 16-7 against the spread as an underdog with an NFL-best +5.8 spread differential. Tampa will be without future Hall of Fame WR Mike Evans for the next month, but Pro Bowl WR Chris Godwin and All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs are on pace to make their season debuts this week.

Meanwhile, the Eagles altered their travel schedule to get to Tampa earlier this week because the Bucs are in Philly’s heads. They have crushed the Eagles at home in their last two meetings: 32-9 in the 2024 NFC wild-card round and 33-16 last year. There is just something about this matchup that favors Tampa Bay.

Like Philly, the Bucs have several Super Bowl champions on their roster, so they aren’t afraid of the Eagles. Tampa should dominate the run game, and Baker is a better passer than Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts. The Buccaneers are fifth in yards per rush allowed, while the Eagles are 24th in yards per rush and 27th in yards per rush allowed on defense.

Granted, I’m sure Philly’s defense gets it together eventually. I mean, the Eagles are the reigning Super Bowl champions and 3-0 despite not playing their A-game once this season. But the second part of that sentence applies to the Bucs, too. Who, again, have been feisty ‘dogs in the Baker Era.

If Joe Burrow is done for the year, Cincy might have a top-three pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. That’s how bad things are. The offensive line is a mess, the run game is non-existent, and without Burrow to bail them out, this roster is exposed. That makes this the perfect spot to back Denver, which holds a clear advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Denver’s offense also has a prime get-right opportunity vs. a Bengals’ defense that ranks 26th in points allowed per game, even after facing QB Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Lastly, after suffering back-to-back losses on walk-off field goals, the Broncos will take their anger out on Cincinnati Monday.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.