Inside the 2025 NBA Cup Quarterfinals: The Surprising Totals That Could Upset Every Prediction Tuesday

The third annual 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals are finally here, kicking off Tuesday in the home gyms of the higher seeds — a setup that adds a delicious edge, doesn’t it? The stakes? Winners jet off to Las Vegas for the semifinals Saturday, then the championship showdown next Tuesday. Take Orlando, where the young, hungry Magic welcome the battle-tested Heat—a textbook clash of youthful depth versus savvy experience. Meanwhile, up north, the Knicks head to Toronto for what promises to be a gritty, half-court slugfest between long, versatile wings. With prize money dangling like a carrot and rotations tightening, expect intensity to skyrocket and every possession to scream importance. So, what’s the play here? Can defense truly reign supreme when Miami leads the league in sheer pace? And how much does missing Magic scorer Franz Wagner change the calculus? I’ve got my bets lined up, analyzing exactly how these factors tip the scales in both Heat-Magic and Knicks-Raptors matchups. Buckle up; it’s going to be one heck of a strategic rollercoaster. LEARN MORE.

The quarterfinals of the third annual 2025 NBA Cup tip off Tuesday in the higher seeds’ home gyms, with the winners going to Las Vegas for the semifinals Saturday and the championship next Tuesday. In Orlando, the upstart Magic host the battle-tested Heat in a clash of young depth vs. veteran experience.

North of the border, the Knicks visit the Raptors in what should be a physical, half-court battle between long, versatile wings. With prize money on the line and rotations likely tightening, intensity should pick up, and possessions will mean more. Below are my best bets and rationale for how I’m attacking Heat-Magic and Knicks-Raptors.

My biggest fear about betting in Under here is Miami leading the NBA in pace. But, ultimately, I have more faith in each team’s defense than their offense. Magic leading scorer SG Franz Wagner is out for the next 2-4 weeks with a sprained ankle. The Heat are fourth in defensive rating (14th offensively), and Orlando is sixth in defensive rating (12th offensively).

The Magic’s second-leading scorer, All-Star forward Paolo Banchero, is offset by Miami All-Star big Bam Adebayo and wing Andrew Wiggins. Their length and athleticism should make it tough for Paolo to get to the basket, and Banchero is a bad outside shooter. Orlando has a bunch of good perimeter defenders, which is key when facing Miami combo guards Norman Powell and Tyler Herro.

Another concern for the Under is this total is 5.5 points lower than their Friday meeting (241), even though Herro didn’t play, and he is probable for Tuesday, and I’m overreacting to Orlando’s 106-105 win. However, styles make fights. Neither team shoots a lot of 3-pointers. The Heat are second in defensive 3-point percentage, and the Magic allow the second-fewest 3-pointers per game.

Finally, I know the NBA Cup is kind of a joke, but this game is more important than a normal regular-season game. There is a little more money at stake, and both teams have enough young rotational players who aren’t getting paid big bucks and care about winning an NBA Cup bonus. And more money equals more effort, which means tougher defense.

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Unfortunately, I locked in this bet Monday night, and the total has moved away from me: It’s currently 226.5-227. I’m not sweating it, though. Over the past two-plus seasons, I’ve gotten “closing line value” (CLV) on nearly 1,000 NBA bets, and I have a negative return on investment (which is definitely a reason to fade this pick). I.e., CLV isn’t the end-all, be-all.

Furthermore, it’s smart to wait until closer to game time before betting an Under, since the public loves to bet Overs, and you usually get a better number for the Under if you wait. That said, hopefully, you get a better price for the Under if you feel like tailing me, or at least, you can see how the early supposed “sharp money” is betting the total.

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NBA 2025-26 bets here.