Inside the 2025 NFC Wild Card Showdown: How the Packers’ Secret Edge Seals Their Victory Over the Bears

For the third showdown this season, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears reignite one of the NFL’s most storied rivalries in the 2026 NFC Wild Card Round. Splitting their regular-season encounters with a win apiece—Green Bay taking Week 14, Chicago answering back in an overtime thriller just two weeks later—this trilogy begs the question: can the Bears upset the odds, or will the Packers assert dominance when it counts the most? The narrative might seem set—Green Bay, led by a nearly unstoppable Jordan Love, boasts not only a stronger offense but also the strategic edge on early downs that tend to predict victory. Meanwhile, Chicago’s defense, notorious for opportunistic takeaways yet surprisingly porous against yardage, faces a Packers squad primed and nearly at full strength after a shrewd Week 18 rest. Will this playoff finale tip the scales once and for all, or is the rivalry destined for yet another twist? Dive into the layers beneath the surface and discover why, despite all, the Packers seem poised to claim this season’s final—and arguably most decisive—chapter. LEARN MORE.

For the third time this season, longtime rivals, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, meet in the 2026 NFC Wild Card Round Saturday. They split the regular-season series 1-1. Green Bay won the first meeting 28-21 in Week 14. Chicago won the second, 22-16, in overtime two weeks later.

The TL;DR version of my breakdown for why the Packers will win the trilogy is: “Green Bay is the better team, and this matchup says the Packers should handle the Bears this time around”.

Here’s how I arrived at that conclusion.

The Packers were up 10 points with five minutes left in their 22-16 overtime loss at Chicago in Week 16. That game got weird early when Green Bay QB Jordan Love left with a concussion.

To Packers backup QB Malik Willis’ credit, he was fantastic and wasn’t the reason they lost. But Love changes the entire profile of Green Bay’s offense, and it matters against a Bears’ defense that lives on takeaways.

Love is tied for second in QBR and sixth in interception rate. Chicago has an NFL-best +22 turnover margin, but the underlying defense is far less impressive: The Bears rank 29th in yards per play allowed.

Another thing working in Green Bay’s favor is how each team treated Week 18.

Chicago played its starters and was legitimately trying to win and earn the 2-seed for the NFC playoffs. Regardless, Detroit’s wide receivers were running wide-open all game. That’s not exactly a confidence booster for the Bears heading into a game against Packers head coach Matt LaFleur.

Green Bay, on the other hand, pretty much treated the regular-season finale like a bye week, resting most of its starters. That extra time matters, especially since Love is coming back to a mostly healthy WR corps and an elite playcaller.

With Love out there and the Packers close to full strength, offensively, they should light up Chicago’s soft-a** defense.

If you want one “tell” that travels week to week, it’s early-down performance. Entering Week 17 (not counting Week 18 since Green Bay essentially took the week off), the Packers were seventh in early-down success rate differential. The Bears? Twenty-third.

Early-down success rate is predictive because the whole playbook is available on first and second down, and that’s exactly where good offenses separate themselves from defenses that are just hoping for a giveaway.

The bottom line is, Green Bay has the better quarterback, the better playcaller, and the better profile in the most predictive spots. If the Packers play clean, Chicago’s defense isn’t built to hold up for four quarters.

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First of all, Odunze hasn’t played since Week 13 and might not be 100% for the playoffs. Either way, he had the worst catch rate (48.9%) among Chicago pass-catchers with at least six targets; Odunze only caught 44 of his 99 targets this season.

Also, the Bears are a run-heavy team, and QB Caleb Williams has a lot of mouths to feed in that offense. Lastly, according to Pro Football Focus, Odunze lines up against Packers CB Keisean Nixon, who is their highest-graded cover corner.

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