Inside The American Express 2026: Which Six Outrights Could Spark a Birdie Frenzy and Who Will Dominate the Putting Green?

So, here we are, staring down the barrel of The American Express—arguably the most maddeningly unpredictable event on the PGA Tour. You know, Jon Rahm — yes, that Jon Rahm, once called it a “f*cking putting contest,” and honestly, he’s onto something. Ball-striking? That’s the real crystal ball for a golfer’s future. But putting? Pure chaos, random like a roulette wheel spinning outta control. And The AmEx? It’s a low-stakes breeze tee-to-green, where the putter on fire by Sunday usually snatches glory. Now, picture this: three courses—a rotating trifecta of birdie-paloozas with West Coast Poa greens—stacked so easy that the winning score hasn’t dipped above -23 since 2007.

Yet, the tournament lives and breathes volatility. The World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is stepping up for his season debut, and with The Sentry canceled, the cream of the crop is all here—making this one of the strongest fields ever. But here’s the twist: in a field packed with top talent, the smart play might just be backing those mid-tier longshots, because let’s face it, laying down cash on any under +4000 odds? That’s flirting with danger in this tournament’s wild game.

Last week, I got burned at the 2026 Sony Open—3.75 units down, thanks to Maverick McNealy’s collapse. But this week, you’re gonna get my best bets for The AmEx, flavored with a sprinkle of insurance via Top-20 with ties odds. We’ll dive deep into how veterans like Hall, Poston, and Day stack up in this mix of talent, putting prowess, and desert course savvy. Can ball-striking slumpters overcome their flaws? Will a short-game wizard make the magic happen? Or are we all just rolling dice here? Stick with me, and maybe we crack this AmEx code together.

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As LIV Tour sellout Jon Rahm once said, The American Express is a “f*cking putting contest”. Ball-striking is more predictive of a golfer’s future success, whereas putting is random. Because the AmEx is so easy tee-to-green (T2G), it’s usually won by whoever putts the best on the weekend.

Anyway, the AmEx has a unique setup. It has a 54-hole cut, played on a three-course rota: The La Quinta Country Club for one round, the Nicklaus Tournament Course for another, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course for two rounds, including the final round. All three are short-ish birdie-fests with West Coast Poa grass greens.

These courses are so easy that most PGA TOUR pros can contend at the AmEx. Since 2007, the winning score has been at least -23. Nick Dunlap won the 2024 AmEx as an amateur by firing a -29. Hence, I’m not betting on a golfer in this field at less than +4000 odds because this tournament is just too random.

Plus, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is making his season debut this week. In fact, this year’s AmEx has one of the strongest fields in its history because The Sentry, the top players’ usual first tournament of the season, was canceled. Due to the AmEx’s volatility, I’d rather bet some mid-to longshots and have a longer card.

Last week, I bricked the 2026 Sony Open, donking off 3.75 units (u). My One-And-Done pick, Maverick McNealy, was one shot off the lead after 54 holes before ejecting in the third round. Here are my outright bets for this week’s AmEX, and I’m placing a 0.25u bet on their Top-20 with ties markets for insurance.

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below (subject to change).

This pick puts the “easy T2G” thing to the test because Hall’s T2G game sucks. According to Betsperts Golf, Hall is negative in Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-striking, which includes driving and approach. Yet, since these three courses are easy T2G, Hall’s fantastic short-game (chipping and putting) can keep him in contention at the AmEx.

Even though he’s a British bloke, Hall played college golf at UNLV and resides in Las Vegas, so he’s familiar with desert golf.

Also, he didn’t win, but low-key Hall had a solid 2025. He was sixth in total SG on the PGA TOUR last season and played in the TOUR Championship because his short-game is nasty.

Hall was 122nd in SG: OTT and 107th in SG: APP last year, but he was 10th in SG: Around-the-Green and third in SG: Putting. You need to “go low” to win the AmEx, and Hall is one of the best scorers on TOUR.

Ultimately, Hall’s inconsistent ball-striking will probably prevent him from winning the AmEx, especially considering this surprisingly strong field. But between his odds and the past champions, Hall is worth taking a swing at.

Course/event history matters for the AmEx since it’s played on a three-course rota, and there’s a social component to it because the TOUR pros are paired with amateurs for the first three rounds. Maybe it throws some players off, maybe it doesn’t. Either way, having experience at the AmEx can only help.

That said, Poston plays well in this event. He’s made the cut in five of his six starts here, with a T6 in 2023, T11 in 2024, and T12 last year. One of The Postman’s three PGA TOUR wins was the 2024 Shriners Children’s Open at another desert course, TPC Summerlin.

Also, driving accuracy is more important than distance at the AmEx, which is one of J.T.’s biggest strengths. Several past AmEx champions aren’t long off-the-tee (OTT), including last year’s winner, Sepp Staka, who has a similar game to The Postman. Both won the John Deere Classic, which is another birdie-fest.

Poston’s winning scores in his three wins are -22 at the 2019 Wyndham Championship, -21 at the 2022 John Deere, and -22 at the 2024 Shriners. Finally, J.T. is one of the best putters on TOUR, Poa is his best putting surface, and you have to get hot with the putter to win the AmEx.

Fowler had a resurgence in 2023, highlighted by a win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, regressed in 2024, had a shaky start to 2025, and then started to play well at the end of last season. Given his odds and win equity, I’m gambling that Fowler’s strong end of 2025 will carry into this year. He finished T6 and T7 in the first two rounds of the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs.

One of Rickie’s six PGA TOUR victories came at THE PLAYERS Championship in 2015 at another Pete Dye course. Fowler won the 2019 WM Phoenix Open, played at another desert course. He is a West Coast native, and he plays in this event most years. My “fair odds” for Rickie at the 2026 AmEx are +5000.

The Aussie has played in four consecutive AmExs, making the cut in all four, and finishing T3 last year. Day has gained strokes T2G in three straight AmExs, and he is one of the best putters in the world. J-Day also plays in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am every year and has eight top-10 finishes in that event.

He was 41st in the FedExCup Standings on the PGA TOUR last season, and is 57th in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR), but 35th in DataGolf.com’s rankings. Data Golf is a better index than the FedExCup and OWGR because it encompasses several professional golf tours, even that LIV Tour clown show.

Day is an 11-time PGA TOUR champion and has big wins under his belt, such as the 2015 PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS Championship (played at another Pete Dye course) in 2016, so we know he can close out a tournament vs. a strong field. Sure, those “big wins” were 10+ years ago.

But Day is only 38 years old, which is young in “golf years,” and he played better last season than the market is giving him credit for. On top of his T3 at the AmEx last year, J-Day had four more T13-or-better finishes, at “signature events,” Pebble Beach (T13), the Arnold Palmer Invitational (T8), the Travelers Championship (T4), and the Masters (T8).

I don’t even like betting on Harman, and he doesn’t rank that high on my model, but these odds are just disrespectful. Harman won the 2025 Valero Texas Open, finished T3 at the RBC Heritage (“signature event”), eighth in the Travelers Championship (“signature event”), T10 at The Open Championship, and T13 at the TOUR Championship.

Yet, the 2023 Champion Golfer of the Year and American Ryder Cupper has worse betting odds than guys who have never won the PGA TOUR, like Sam Stevens, Pierceson Coody, Rico Hoey, etc. I mean, what are we doing here? Harman is better than those jabronis.

While he finished T61 at the Sony Open last week, at least Harman warmed up. A good chunk of the AmEx field is playing in their first event of the year.

More importantly, he plays this tournament often, and his game fits these courses. You need to be precise with your wedges and get hot with the putter, two of Harman’s best skills. At the end of the day, I’m trying to bet longshots at the AmEx, and Harman’s chances of winning this birdie-fest are better than his odds indicate.

Again, I’m just shopping in the bargain bin because of all the longshots that have won the AmEx. He didn’t play in this tournament last year, but Theegala was +6000 at Pebble Beach last season, a “signature event” featuring a field that included Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. While his drop in the betting odds makes sense, Sahith is still just 28-years-old and has major-winning talent.

Theegala’s only PGA TOUR win, the 2023 Fortinet Championship, was at a comp course to the Pete Dye Stadium Course. He has played well in the WM Phoenix Open (T3 in 2022 and fifth in 2024) at another desert golf course, as well as the RBC Heritage (T5 in 2023 and second in 2024) and THE PLAYERS Championship (T9 in 2024), both of which are held at Pete Dye courses.

Lastly, Theegala is from Chino Hills, California, so he is comfortable with the tricky West Coast Poa greens.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.