Inside the Fragile Alliance: Can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays Survive the Pressure Together?

So here’s the million-dollar question (quite literally): Will Toronto lock down Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a blockbuster contract, or will they be forced to send their prized slugger packing? It’s a nail-biting moment for a franchise that’s been chasing big-time success but keeps hitting a snag with its young core. At 26 and racing toward free agency, Guerrero’s existing as not just a player but a pivotal chess piece in a high-stakes game involving lofty contracts, trade rumors, and a Blue Jays roster that’s more puzzle than picture. This season? It’s make-or-break, their version of a high-wire act without a net. Can Toronto build a winning team around him, or is the clock already ticking on this “together” partnership? It’s the kind of dilemma that makes you lean in closer, because every swing, every inning, every contract chat could rewrite the future of baseball north of the border. Intrigued?

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In two seasons, last year and 2021, Guerrero has brought to bear the visceral promise of his bat, running batting averages well over .300 and packing real punch with it. If he replicates that sort of production, he’ll command a contract in the range of what he sought from Toronto over the offseason.

Their additions this offseason include defensive whiz and surprise cleanup hitter Andres Gimenez (73 RV+ in a down 2024) and homer-heavy outfielder Anthony Santander (109 RV+), both of whom are solid supporting cast members, but neither a playoff-caliber lead bat.

And it’s only going to get more stressful.

Now, Guerrero has the advantage of youth. He’ll enter the market heading into his age-27 season, where Alonso was set to start his age-30 season. That will matter. But it won’t bridge the gap between two years at million per (Alonso’s fallback deal with the Mets) and 15 years at more than million (the bottom end of the reported Guerrero ask).

Guerrero, famed prodigy and former top prospect, is now 26 years old and a matter of months from reaching free agency. Since his debut in 2019, he has the 16th-best OPS among hitters with at least 2,000 plate appearances, and it’s hard to ignore the fork in the road approaching.

Of the 15 elite hitters ahead of him, eight had accepted long-term extensions with their predominant team control franchise before this juncture, three were traded in the absence of such a commitment, three left in free agency. Only one, Aaron Judge, reached free agency and returned home.

In addition to the ticking clock that is the major-league pitching staff, the Blue Jays weigh in with one of the least enticing farm systems in baseball, ranked 26th by Baseball Prospectus’s estimation. If the Blue Jays are trending toward another October vacation, it might behoove them to chase some fresh talent that can’t spurn their advances, however painful the prospect might feel.

So Guerrero, whose 165 RV+ was a top-10 mark in MLB last season, is an anchor they can’t afford to cut loose if winning remains the goal.

So far, Vlady’s gone 6 for 27 (.222) with three doubles during Toronto’s 5-2 start. In a matter of months, Guerrero Jr. and the Jays have a lot to figure out.

Talent Surrounding Guerrero is a Factor

And all the while, there will be teams like the Mets – Toronto’s opponent this weekend – looming with the financial might and infrastructure to pounce on Guerrero, and many others interested in cutting deals for half a year of his or other veterans’ services.

His other first four seasons in the majors raise the possibility of something less convincing, though. At times, his preternatural ability to make contact (104 contact+ in 2024) has put a damper on his ability to do damage. It’s a great start to hit the ball hard, but it’s even better to hit the ball hard and at the right angle to possibly fly over the fence.

Guerrero is excellent at hitting it hard – his exit velocities routinely rank among the top 5% of MLB batters – and subpar at hitting it on the sweet spot. (Is he a good candidate for a torpedo bat? Maybe!) He has never ranked better than the 62nd percentile in that element of hitting, per Statcast, and has often come in among the bottom quarter of the league. That, plus his general lack of verve on the bases, limits his propensity for extra bases. Even last year, his 158 BIP+ trailed his top-of-the-leaderboard contemporaries.

As you might recall from this past winter’s market, hitters coming off merely good seasons – such as Alex Bregman (129 RV+) and Pete Alonso (127 RV+) – usually find more skeptical markets. That’s especially true of sluggers without defensive selling points.

Those pesky millimeters between single and homer are going to loom large for Guerrero and the Blue Jays.

From Shohei Ohtani to Juan Soto, the Blue Jays have publicly pursued big name after big name and fallen short each time. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, necessarily, but it raises eyebrows when the front office has also neglected to sign the stars they already have.

If Guerrero is going to position himself in that stratosphere, a confidence-boosting contract year would go a long way.

Conversations in spring training didn’t reach the finish line, and reportedly crept past the 0 million guarantee mark after Juan Soto’s 5 million deal with the New York Mets set a new bar.

If Guerrero smashes the start of his contract year out of the park, the whole equation might actually get more complicated for the Blue Jays, who will have incentives tugging them toward trading him (for the assured talent infusion) and holding on (for the chance of retaining a beloved star).

The Right Vlad Jr. at the Right Time

The Jackson Merrill extension reminds me of the strongest argument in favor of signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a massive deal (other than that he’s very good): there’s never going to be a great free agent bat reach market ever again

But even that tortured decision, of whether to hold or deal Guerrero if they fail to extend him, is tethered to the other high-stakes question at play here: Which Vlad Jr. is taking the field this year?

At least for now, you can say this much: They’re in it together.

The 2025 Blue Jays probably don’t look like anyone associated with the Blue Jays had hoped. In the highly competitive AL East, TRACR preseason projections gave them the fewest wins (78) and the worst shot at reaching the postseason (18.6%).

This winter, Guerrero will headline the market alongside Kyle Tucker, the all-around outfielder now starring for the Chicago Cubs after the Houston Astros decided to trade him ahead of a free-agent payday that figures to be, well, astronomical (and deservedly so). Whether the Blue Jays make a similar calculation might depend on the team’s play in the first half.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays have embarked on a crucial season with seismic implications for the would-be franchise player, the franchise that can’t seem to sign one, and the eager powers who could.

Will Toronto be able to ink him to a new contract? Will the Jays have to trade their star slugger? It’s crunch time for all parties involved in the Vladimir Guerrero Jr. saga.

Now it’s crunch time for all parties involved. If the Blue Jays front office, led by Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, is going to secure Guerrero as the face of the franchise and perpetuate a notion of contending, they need to do so soon.

The post The Tenuous, High-Stakes Partnership of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays appeared first on Opta Analyst.

The Blue Jays, pretty recently the promising employers of a young core headlined by Guerrero and Bo Bichette, have watched their trajectory turn inside out in the blink of an eye. Fresh off a last-place finish, with three postseason appearances but zero postseason wins on their record in the Guerrero era, Toronto is now the perplexing club that failed to achieve liftoff with that young core.
Guerrero is still here, but the roster around him consists largely of players in decline or in “prove it” mode, which might even include Bichette, who is coming off a miserable 2024 campaign with a raw value+ (RV+) of 88 (league average is 100) over 334 plate appearances. The Blue Jays have the oldest pitching staff in baseball at the moment, and the bottom half of their order is populated by a rotating cast of 25- to 31-year-old players with some promising bat skills but questionable star potential.