Inside the Genesis Invitational 2026: Which Five Surprising Outrights Could Turn This Riviera Tournament Upside Down?

The PGA TOUR’s grand return to Riviera Country Club for the 2026 Genesis Invitational isn’t just another tournament—it’s a homecoming drenched in history and heart. After the 2025 event detoured to Torrey Pines thanks to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, the world’s golf elite are heading back to the iconic fairways of Santa Monica for the tournament’s milestone 100th edition. But here’s the kicker—can anyone wrestle the crown away from defending champ Ludvig Åberg, who claimed victory amid the chaos at Torrey Pines? Or will Riviera’s 2024 hero, Hideki Matsuyama, remind us why that venue holds a mystical allure, especially when he fired a -9 final round to snatch the Genesis? Topping the leaderboard chatter is a heavyweight showdown: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler locking horns with No. 2 Rory McIlroy. The field’s further ignited by California’s finest—Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa—who never fail to summon extra grit in front of a home crowd. Add a hefty $20 million purse and signature event prestige, and this week promises a fierce, riveting test at one of golf’s most storied battlegrounds. So, the question is—who’s ready to etch their name into Genesis history amid the ghosts and greens of Riviera? LEARN MORE

The PGA TOUR returns to its hallowed grounds this week as the 2026 Genesis Invitational marks a historic homecoming to Riviera Country Club. After the 2025 edition was forced to Torrey Pines in San Diego due to the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, the world’s elite head back to Santa Monica for the tournament’s landmark 100th edition.

While Ludvig Åberg arrives as the defending champion following his win at Torrey Pines, Hideki Matsuyama remains the most recent winner at Riviera after his legendary victory here in 2024, where he shot a final-round -9 to steal the Genesis. The field is headlined by a heavyweight clash between World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy.

They are joined by a formidable group of California natives, including Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa (2021 Genesis champion), who always find an extra gear when playing in front of a home crowd. With a $20 million purse and signature event status, this week promises an elite test at one of golf’s most iconic venues.

I took a bath last week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, dropping -4.67 units (u), bringing my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll down to -11.06u. That said, here is my starting 5 and a One-And-Done pick for Riviera. (I’m putting in 2.38u on my outrights to profit 20u if one of them wins, and another 1.5u on my placement bets.)

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.

The UCLA alum and fellow Long Beach native is familiar with these tricky West Coast Poa greens, and it’s his best putting surface. Cantlay is second in total Strokes Gained (SG) in this field over the last 20 rounds at Riviera. His worst finish at Riviera is T33 in seven starts with three top-fives, including third in 2023 and T4 in the 2024 Genesis.

There is some “scar tissue” for Patrick here because his T4 two years ago was pretty much a choke job. He led after the first, second, and third rounds. Granted, Matsuyama went nuts on Sunday to steal the 2024 Genesis, but Cantlay was +1 in the final round, so he didn’t exactly help himself out.

Even though he finished T13 at the American Express and missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open in his first two starts this season, Patrick has picked up strokes in every club in his bag besides the putter in those tournaments.

Cantlay has gained more than two strokes on the greens in a T14 in last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which also has difficult Poa greens. He’s gained five strokes putting in his seven career starts at Riviera. Essentially, I’m betting Cantlay because his ball-striking (driving and iron-play) is on point, and he usually putts well on these greens.

Since winning his first PGA TOUR event, the 2025 Wyndham Championship, the last regular-season tournament, Young has been a top-five player in the world. In fact, according to Betsperts Golf, he is second in total SG in this field over that span.

On top of his win at the Wyndham, Young has a fifth T5 at the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship and 11th in the BMW Championship, the first and second rounds of the FedExCup playoffs, T4 at the TOUR Championship, T9 at the Procore Championship, and an appearance in the Ryder Cup for Team America.

It’s going to be hard for everyone to hit the fairway at Riviera this week, but at least Young can bomb it out there; he pummels the ball off-the-tee (OTT). He is fifth in this field for SG: Tee-to-Green at Riviera despite his terrible chipping. But Young has gained strokes around-the-green (ARG) in his six starts dating back to last season.

Lastly, in his 12 rounds at Riviera, Young leads the field in SG: Ball-striking. He’s finished T2, T20, and T16 in the last three visits to Riviera. If he keeps that and continues to hit the ball well at Riviera, Young will be in the mix at the 2026 Genesis Invitational.

The five-time PGA TOUR winner is a wizard ARG, and he’s second in this field for SG: Short-game, which includes chipping and putting, over his last 20 rounds at Riviera, according to Betsperts Golf. He was T12 and seventh in the last two Genesis Invitationals at Riviera.

English is second on TOUR this season in SG: OTT. He won the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open at another long California course with tricky Poa greens, Torrey Pines. His best finish in a major last season was T2 at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, a comp course to Riviera.

Finally, English was a 2025 American Ryder Cupper and 13th in the Official World Golf Rankings, and 19th in the betting odds for the 2025 Genesis. Between his legit “win equity,” solid recent form, experience, and all-around skill, English’s odds should be +3000 or lower.

This is just a great price for Knapp. He is third on TOUR in total SG and a perfect fit for Riviera. In four starts this season, Knapp has a T11, T5, eighth, and T8. He went off at +3500 odds at last week’s AT&T, and Riviera is a better course for his game than Pebble Beach.

Because there is a low penalty for missing the fairway OTT, Knapp can go bombs away with his driver, his best club in the bag. This is his first PGA TOUR event at Riviera, but the Bruin played college golf at UCLA, so he’s had to play here before.

Knapp is a top-three putter in this field on these Poa greens, which are the toughest putting surface on TOUR. As an Orange County native, he grew up playing on Poa. Since Riviera’s Par-4s are so difficult, you need to beat up on the Par-5s here, and Knapp is third in Par-5 scoring on TOUR so far this season.

There are several reasons why Hisatsune won’t win the Genesis, but those are “baked into the odds,” so to speak. This is his first Genesis, and 17 of the past 19 winners have played in at least four Genesis Invitationals. Plus, Hisatsune is due for regression after a few “close but no cigar” finishes already this year on difficult courses with strong fields.

Yet, Ryo is only 23 years old, and maybe he will break through sooner rather than later. He already has three international wins, including the 2023 French Open on the DP World (European) Tour. Over his last three starts, Hisatsune has gained strokes in ball-striking and with his short-game, and two of those starts were on these tough Poa greens.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I’ll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.