Inside the NHL’s Biggest Contract Surprises of 2025: Who’s Winning and Losing Big Bucks?
None of this is set in stone either. Things change every year and that’s why this is an annual exercise, one that uses the same criteria as the best and worst contract articles. Each player is judged based on total surplus value (more term means more time for value to compound, for better or worse) and the likelihood of the deal being good. Both are based on every player’s future trajectory over the life of his contract which uses player comps to determine his likeliest path(s) forward.
How a player ages and how the cap increases are two of the biggest factors for this exercise, so keep that in mind. The rapidly escalating cap environment is an especially big factor when a 10 percent deal is worth $9.55 million next year, but could be worth as much as $14 million in seven or eight years. That means valuations for younger players will look a lot better than some might expect if it’s over a lengthy term. Keep in mind that all the model estimates listed below — whether you agree or not — are based on the future, not the past.
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