Iowa State vs Iowa: Three Game-Changing Factors That Could Flip the Cy-Hawk Rivalry Forever
When it comes to the Cy-Hawk clash, all the charters, rankings, and records? Toss ’em aside. This is more than just a game—it’s the heartbeat of Iowa, the unofficial town square conversation spinning from the neighborhood grocer to the corner gas station. Every insider, every casual fan, even the lurking burner accounts on social media are on edge, ready with jabs and banter. Whether you bleed cardinal and gold or rock the cardinal and gold, seeing your squad trample the rival? That’s the stuff that etches legends. This Thursday night, the No. 4 Cyclones welcome the Hawkeyes for a showdown in Hilton Coliseum that’s got everyone on the edge, with Iowa State riding high from an 81-58 dismantling of former top-ranked Purdue. Iowa, fresh under coach Ben McCollum’s first year, aims to bounce back from their slip at Michigan State. The series tells a story itself—Hawkeyes hold the lead in wins, but the Cyclones are hungry to cement a three-peat over their staunchest foe. Strap in, because these battles aren’t just about basketball—they’re about pride, history, and bragging rights that last long after the final buzzer. LEARN MORE
The rankings and records don’t seem to matter much whenever the Cy-Hawk rivalry is renewed and in-state bragging rights are back up for grabs.
There’s plenty of hype and buildup. The town grocer will be talking about it. The attendant at Casey’s is keeping tabs. Social media is buzzing in anticipation and burner accounts are ready to talk trash.
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Whether you align yourself with Iowa State basketball or Iowa, it’s always a big deal to see your team pummel the other side, and newcomers to the rivalry will hope for a chance to solidify themselves in the lore.
No. 4 Iowa State is hosting Iowa at Hilton Coliseum on Thursday, Dec. 11, at 7 p.m. CT. The game will also be available on FS1.
The Cyclones (9-0) are coming off a big 81-58 road win over former No. 1 Purdue.
The Hawkeyes (8-1) are off to a solid start under first-year head coach Ben McCollum. Their lone blemish came on the road at Michigan State on Dec. 2, but they rebounded with a comfortable 83-64 win over Maryland on Dec. 6.
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More: Iowa State basketball newcomers excited for first Cy-Hawk game
Iowa leads the all-time series, 48-30, but Iowa State has won three of the last four meetings, including each of the last two years. They’ll have an opportunity to win three-straight over the Hawkeyes for the first time since 2013-15.
Here are three things to watch from the Cyclone side for the Cy-Hawk game:
The point guard battle between Iowa State’s Tamin Lipsey and Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz
After facing Purdue’s Braden Smith, there will be another premier point guard matchup between Tamin Lipsey and Bennett Stirtz.
Lipsey, a lifelong Iowa State fan, is preparing to play in his final Cy-Hawk game. He is averaging 16.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.7 steals per game, while shooting 51.3% overall through six games this season.
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Lipsey returned to action against the Boilermakers after missing three games with a groin injury. He had nine points, five boards, eight assists and no turnovers in the win over Purdue.
Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey (3) shoots the ball during last year’s Cy-Hawk game. The Cyclones will face Iowa on Thursday at 7 p.m. CT in Ames.
Along with backcourt mate Killyan Toure, their defensive disruption resulted in Smith committing a season-high six turnovers.
There will be plenty of attention on Stirtz, who has been a catalyst for the Hawkeyes. It will be his first Cy-Hawk game after previously playing at Drake, but he’s only continued to build off of his big year with the Bulldogs. Stirtz has seamlessly transitioned to the power-conference level, averaging a team-best 18.8 points, 4.9 assists and 1.8 steals, while shooting 50.5% overall and 45.1% from long range.
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Unlike Smith, who had plenty of weapons and all-conference talent around him, Stirtz is the primary offensive engine. The Hawkeyes do get some contributions elsewhere, but their next-highest scorer has fewer than half of Stirtz’s scoring production this season. Despite such a top-heavy output, the Hawkeyes and Stirtz are unselfish, with a team assist rate of 62.7%, which is 25th in the country.
More: 3 takeaways from Iowa State basketball’s win over No. 1 Purdue
Tavion Banks, Kael Combs and Cam Manyawu are other Drake transfers who have played in key starting roles since following McCollum from Des Moines. Redshirt freshman Cooper Koch opted to stay in Iowa City through the coaching change and is improving. The 6-foot-8 starting forward has 10 or more points in four of the last five games, including a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double against Ole Miss on Nov. 25.
It all starts with Stirtz, though, and the Cyclones will have to slow him down.
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Iowa State basketball has to be unrelenting inside
In the Hawkeyes’ lone loss, Michigan State bullied them inside and on the glass. After initially keeping the Spartans out of the paint, Iowa could not keep up with the overwhelming rebounding pressure and sheer aggressiveness in attacking the basket or getting to the free-throw line.
The Spartans outrebounded the Hawkeyes, 37-18, got 13 offensive rebounds and 21 second-chance points in the one-sided showing on the boards. Michigan State also shot 58.8% from inside the arc, which made its 3-of-12 perimeter showing a moot point. The Spartans’ assertiveness inside also allowed them to get plenty of free-throw opportunities, and they converted on 22-of-25 foul shots.
Iowa State has been scorching hot from beyond the arc in each of its last three games, but this seems like a game for Blake Buchanan and Joshua Jefferson to feast inside. Cyclone guards will also follow their lead and get downhill or fight for misses and offensive rebounds. Their ability to be a scoring threat inside may also open up looks at the perimeter, and perhaps their 3-point success continues.
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The Cyclones have had double-digit offensive rebounds in four of their last five games; expect that trend to continue and be one of the key margins for Thursday’s game.
Iowa State is entering with an offensive rebounding rate of 37.5%, according to KenPom, which is on pace to be the highest for the Cyclones in a season since the turn of the century.
Which style wins out?
The Cyclones have been breaking their foes with their relentless play on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, they are currently ranked No. 6 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency. Iowa State looks to have its defense fuel its offense by generating turnovers into scoring opportunities or pushing the pace to attack in transition.
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Iowa operates at a much slower, deliberate pace. Last year, McCollum’s team at Drake ranked dead last in Division I basketball, 364th, in terms of tempo and pace. The Hawkeyes are close to the bottom on that front this season, ranking 356th in tempo.
Offensively, they keep the ball on the move and there’s plenty of motion off-ball. Iowa will try to keep the pace down and hunt for openings in Iowa State’s defensive rotations. Defensively, Iowa does a good job of getting back in transition and minimizing opponents’ fast-break points. The Hawkeyes are disciplined in their help defense and make opponents work for their shots.
The Hawkeyes rank 36th in offensive efficiency and 33rd in defensive efficiency.
Both teams excel at generating turnovers and taking care of the ball on the other end. Iowa State has a defensive forced turnover rate of 26.5% (second-best in the country), while Iowa is right behind at 24.1% (fifth-best). They like to capitalize on their opponents’ miscues, and it’ll be interesting to see how effective either side will be in minimizing giveaways and creating turnovers.
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Iowa State basketball vs. Iowa prediction
Iowa State has been on a tear, but there’s always added juice for both teams in this game. The Hawkeyes might have their chances to muck it up early, but expect the Cyclones to eventually wear them down and pull away. Prediction: Iowa State 81, Iowa 62
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State vs Iowa prediction, what to watch for in college basketball
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