Is Investing Big in Running Backs the Secret to NFL Success—or a Costly Gamble?
Since 2016, 14 rookie running backs eclipsed 1,000 yards in their debut seasons. Another 14 rushed for between 800-999 yards. And on a long-term investment level, five 1,000-yard rushers in 2024 were within their first three seasons, while two other players within their first three season rushed for more than 900 yards. So even if a team doesn’t get star production in Year 1, the likelihood of solid production over the next two years is high.
Looking back at the past five running back draft classes, the 12 best rookies averaged 5.78 yards per carry, 3.46 yards before contact and 2.36 yards after contact during their respective final collegiate season. Of the draft-eligible running backs in 2025, 15 clear that threshold and 27 clear two of the three numbers listed.
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