Is the ACC Facing an Unthinkable Playoff Shutout This Season?

Picture this: the ACC champion might just find themselves locked out of the College Football Playoff. Yeah, it sounds bonkers, but hear me out. Thanks to Cal’s shocker against SMU, we’ve got 7-5 Duke perched atop a tangled five-way tie, edging out Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and SMU for the ACC title game slot. The Blue Devils—who’ve stumbled three times outside their conference—are now set to face Virginia, fighting not just for hardware but for a slim shot at a playoff bid. And when I say slim, I mean it’s a long shot.

The new 12-team CFP format hands out five automatic bids to the highest-ranked conference champs—but don’t get it twisted, it’s not just the traditional power conference winners plus one underdog. If Duke clinches the ACC at 8-5, it could flip the script entirely, unlocking a spot for another non-power league champ like James Madison, should they leapfrog Duke in rankings. JMU’s sitting pretty at 11-1, while Duke is unranked, which could turn playoff math into a real headache. Meanwhile, Miami’s 10-2 record will leave them watching from the sidelines, thanks to some eyebrow-raising tiebreaker mechanics.

This is college football drama at its finest—and if you thought you’d seen it all, this season is proving otherwise. Buckle up. LEARN MORE

Imagine for a second that the ACC champion doesn’t get into the College Football Playoff.

Let that sink in.

Cal’s upset of SMU on Saturday thrust into the ACC title game 7-5 Duke, which won a five-team tie-breaker to get in over 10-2 Miami, 9-3 Georgia Tech, 8-4 Pitt and 8-4 SMU. The Blue Devils, which have three non-conference losses, will meet Virginia for the right to hold high the trophy and maybe get into the CFP field. We put emphasis on the maybe.

The 12-team playoff features seven at-large teams and five automatic qualifiers designated for the five highest-ranked conference champions. The five AQs are often misunderstood as being designated to the four power league champions plus the highest-ranked non-power league champion. But that’s not the case.

So, back to Duke. If the Blue Devils — at 8-5 — win the ACC title, it opens a path for the second highest-ranked non-power league champion (such as James Madison) to be ranked ahead of Duke and get into the playoff.

PALO ALTO, CA - OCTOBER 18: A close up view of the down markers with ACC logos used by the officiating crew on the field at Stanford Stadium before an ACC game between the Stanford Cardinal and the Florida State Seminoles played on October 18, 2025 at Stanford Stadium on the campus of Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. (Photo by David Madison/Getty Images) — The ACC isn’t looking too hot these days. (David Madison/Getty Images)

(David Madison via Getty Images)

James Madison, if it were to beat Troy at home to win the Sun Belt, has a path to the playoff as the fifth-highest-ranked champion. JMU is 11-1 and ranked No. 20 in last week’s AP poll. Duke was not even receiving votes. Neither team was ranked in the CFP’s Top 25. The American champion (Tulane vs. North Texas) is likely to be in the field as the highest-ranked non-power-league champion.

Of course, all of this is moot if 10-2 Virginia beats Duke in Charlotte. But what’s wild about this all: Miami, at 10-2, is staying home and not competing in the ACC championship game because of the wacky tiebreakers. The Hurricanes, for a second straight year, might be on the outside looking in.

Anyway, enough about all this and on to the Top 10!

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

This week: beat Michigan 27-9

Next week: vs. Indiana (Big Ten championship game)

A 35-yard touchdown strike from Julian Sayin to Jeremiah Smith — on fourth down — highlighted the Buckeyes’ skid-snapping victory at the Big House and propelled them into our top spot. Ohio State’s dominant win on the road and in the snow in Ann Arbor is good enough to have leapfrogged the Hoosiers, who had occupied our top spot for more than a month.

Best wins: 27-9 at Michigan

2. Indiana Hoosiers

This week: beat Purdue 56-3

Next week: vs. Ohio State (Big Ten championship game)

Just because the Hoosiers slipped a spot doesn’t mean much considering the next game. They’ll get their chance to prove, on the field, who’s better out of them and the Buckeyes. The two programs have been Nos. 1 and 2 in the country for most of this season. Now, it’s time to see who will enter the playoff as the top seed.

Best win: 30-20 at Oregon

3. Georgia Bulldogs

This week: beat Georgia Tech 16-9

Next week: vs. Alabama (SEC championship game)

The Bulldogs mounted just 260 yards of offense against the Yellow Jackets — a far cry from their average this season. It was another example of how Kirby Smart’s team can win in an assortment of ways. And now the Bulldogs get to play for a fifth straight year for the league title and secure — if it hasn’t already — a first-round bye in the playoff.

Best win: 43-35 vs. Ole Miss

4. Ole Miss Rebels

This week: beat Mississippi State 38-19

The Lane Kiffin drama aside, the Rebels are in the midst of their best season in school history and have proved that they are real challengers for the national title. Trinidad Chambliss, the former Division II quarterback-turned-Heisman hopeful, is one of the best stories of the season — overshadowed by the Kiffin saga.

Best win: 34-26 at Oklahoma

5. Texas A&M Aggies

This week: lost to Texas 27-17

The Aggies’ magical unbeaten run came to an end in Austin, but that doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Texas A&M won’t be playing for the conference championship, but maybe that’s not so bad? The Aggies may now host a playoff game in College Station and get a much-needed rest next week. It’s not all bad.

Best win: 41-40 at Notre Dame

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6. Texas Tech Red Raiders

This week: beat West Virginia 49-0

Next week: vs. BYU (Big 12 championship game)

The Red Raiders survived a cold day in Morgantown to complete arguably the best regular season in school history and advance to Arlington for the league title game next week. Win that and Texas Tech has an argument to even get a first-round bye in the playoff. Lose and risk an anxious selection day show.

Best win: 34-10 at Utah

7. Oregon Ducks

This week: beat Washington 26-14

The Ducks didn’t have the explosive offensive day we’re used to, but they picked up a resume-boosting road victory against their hated rival. That’ll go a long way in solidifying them as hosting a playoff game this season — something they didn’t get to do last year. Is this Dan Lanning’s revenge year after last season’s early ouster to Ohio State?

Best win: 42-27 vs. USC

8. Oklahoma Sooners

This week: beat LSU 17-13

Good thing for that stiff Oklahoma defense, because the offense is a hot mess and that might come back to bite the Sooners come playoff time. Either way, they survived the scare from the Tigers and will be on the bubble of actually hosting a playoff game. Can QB John Mateer get right and healthy in three weeks? He threw three picks on Saturday.

Best win: 23-21 at Alabama

9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

This week: beat Stanford XX-XX

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Best win: 34-24 vs. USC

10. BYU Cougars

This week: beat UCF 41-21

Next week: vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 championship game)

QB Bear Bachmeier tossed just four incomplete passes and averaged 14 yards per completion in the demolition of the Knights. The Cougars need to beat the Red Raiders next weekend to secure a spot in the playoff — something they missed as an at-large bubble team last season.

Best win: 26-14 at Cincinnati

Dropped: None