Lakers and Warriors: The Dark Horse Transformation Post-NBA Trade Deadline?

Ever wonder if a single trade can light a team on fire in the NBA? Well, the Lakers and the Warriors are on everyone’s radar, but are they really the talk of the town post-trade deadline?

Here’s the deal – since stars like Jimmy Butler and Luka Doncic switched jerseys, these teams have been capturing headlines. But are we just mesmerized by the glitz of big names in big markets, or has there genuinely been a leap in performance?

Truth be told, fans and analysts alike have been buzzing about LA and Golden State. Their records since the deadline? Impressive, sure. But here’s a thought: Is it just the wins they’re racking up, or is there a deeper shift in their game?

Both teams have made some blockbuster moves, but the question remains – have they truly been the biggest improvers since the trade deadline?

Well, they’ve definitely turned some heads, but let’s take a step back and look beyond the win-loss columns for the real story. Our metrics – like TRACR, which balances out the numbers for a realistic performance view – show that it’s not just about who’s scoring the most points or nabbing the most rebounds.

So, here we are, asking the question: Have the Lakers and Warriors truly vaulted into the ranks of the most-improved teams since February 7, or has the media spotlight just made it feel that way?

Let’s delve into not just what’s seen on the scoreboard, but what the projections, metrics, and insider locker room vibes really tell us. And maybe, just maybe, we’ll find some surprises along the way.

Hang with us, as we unpack whether these trade deadline shakeups are all they’re hyped up to be or if they’re just part of the NBA’s dazzling magic show.

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The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors have gotten all the attention lately. Have they been the biggest improvers since the NBA trade deadline?

Luka. LeBron. Jimmy Buckets. Steph Curry. Lakers. Warriors. Theyâre all anyone has talked about since the trade deadline, right?

So much so that even Charles Barkley had enough of media types trying to turn the NBA into a two-team league, launching one of his rants weâve all come to love.

But thereâs also a reason for that. The star power is there. The big-market focus is there. And the wins have been there as well.

Of course, the Lakers and Warriors made two of the leagueâs biggest moves right around the trade deadline. Golden State acquired disgruntled star Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat and Los Angeles had former Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic fall into its lap in one of the most stunning trades in NBA history.

Since Feb. 7 â the day following the trade deadline â only the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have won 15 in a row, have a better record than the Warriorsâ 12-2 mark over that span. One of those losses came without Butler, who is averaging slightly more points (17.6/17.0), assists (5.7/4.8) and rebounds (5.7/5.2) than he did with Miami this season.

Golden State gave up Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson and a protected first-round pick for one of the best two-way players in the league, per DRIP (our Daily-updated Rating of Individual Performance). Butler ranks fourth in overall DRIP (4.2) and is one of only five players with at least a 2.0 offensive DRIP and a 1.0 defensive DRIP.

Entering Thursdayâs action, the Lakers had the sixth-best record since Feb. 7 at 10-4. However, they were 10-2 before dropping their first two games of an East Coast trip at Boston and Brooklyn with LeBron James nursing a strained left groin.

Los Angeles also acquired a DRIP All-Star in Doncic. The five-time All-NBA First Team selection ranks second only to Nikola Jokic (5.8) in the metric at 5.4 after averaging 29.7 points, 9.3 assists and 7.2 rebounds over his last six games.

Yes, the Warriors and Lakers are the popular talking points when looking at which teams have improved the most since the trade deadline. But win-loss record or who has the biggest names on the roster probably isnât the best way to determine that list.

Instead, letâs look at which teams have improved their season projections over the past five weeks. Our projection model takes into account each teamâs TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule before simulating the remaining schedule to produce our season-long NBA predictions.

TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. That model uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).

So have the Warriors and Lakers made the largest improvements since the trade deadline?

Yes and no.

Letâs start with Golden State, which is indeed No. 1 on this list. The Warriors have made the highest jump in the league in expected wins (from 40.4 to 47.1), overall TRACR (minus-0.32 to 3.83), probability of making the playoffs (34.1% to 53.4%) and probability of making the NBA Finals (0.3% to 5.9%).

âSince (Jimmy Butler’s) been here, weâve walked into every game thinking and believing that weâre going to win that game,â Draymond Green said on NBA on TNT. âAnd that goes a long way in this league. When you walk in the game like, âAh man, weâre probably gonna lose this game,â itâs not good. Heâs brought back that belief. And I think weâre going to win the championship.â

But while the Lakers are certainly in a better place with Luka on board, they havenât made an improvement that competes with the Warriorsâ leap.

The Detroit Pistons, who are enjoying a breakthrough season, have had the second-highest jump in expected wins, going from 40.3 to 45.6 over this span. They also have the second-highest increase in TRACR from -0.87 to 2.42 and second-best jump in probability of making the playoffs (an No. 8 seed or higher in the East after the play-in) from 74.6% to 98.3%.

The Lakers donât have the second-highest increase in probability of reaching the NBA Finals, either. That distinction goes to the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics, who have both increased their chances by 3.5% since the trade deadline.

Denver enters Thursdayâs play with a 10.1% probability of winning the West, while the Celtics have a 31.5% chance of coming out of the East.

So where do the Lakers rank? Not elite, but not too far behind, either.

With Luka in the mix, theyâve bumped their chances of making the playoffs from 91.1% to 96.9% â the sixth-best jump since Feb. 7. Theyâve also raised their probability of winning the Western Conference from 1.6% to 2.6% â the seventh-highest increase.

In case youâre wondering, the New York Knicks have suffered the biggest drop in NBA Finals probability since the trade deadline at -6.8%. Theyâve barely played above .500 over this stretch (8-6) while taking on the leagueâs toughest strength of schedule â a .560 opponent win percentage based on current record.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have faced the second-toughest schedule (.554) over this span, but theyâve won six in a row heading into March 13. And the Denver Nuggets, with the third-most difficult schedule (.553), have gone 14-5 since Jan. 31.

We mentioned the surprising Pistons earlier, and theyâve taken advantage of the easiest strength of schedule (.421) by going 12-3 since Feb. 7.

As it stands, the Oklahoma City Thunder (77.3%) and Nuggets (30.8%) are most likely to battle in the NBAâs version of the Final Four in the West.

Aside from Warriors (+14.7%), the Nuggets (+8.3%), Houston Rockets (+4.9%) and Timberwolves (+4.8%) have all increased their probability of reaching the West final more than the Lakers (+2.4%) since the deadline.

As much as the media â and likely the league office â would love a Warriors-Lakers clash in the Western Conference finals, our projection model shows thereâd likely have to be a few upsets to make that happen.

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The post Have the Lakers and Warriors Improved the Most Since the NBA Trade Deadline? appeared first on Opta Analyst.