Lugo’s Last Stand: Can They Outsmart a Struggling Rangers?

Ever get that feeling when luck’s a fickle friend—sometimes it winks, other times it slaps you right in the face? Yesterday’s Cubs-Brewers game was just that kind of wild ride for me: the Cubs’ bats went mysteriously silent, but fate still handed me a win despite the unexpected early exit of their starting pitcher. Now, as the Rangers gear up to face the Royals tonight at 7:40 ET, I can’t help but wonder—can this rollercoaster ride continue? The Rangers have been tumbling down the Wild Card standings, stumbling more on the road than at home, even with fresh arms like Merrill Kelly hoping to steady the ship. Meanwhile, the Royals, oddly inconsistent yet heating up at home, look poised to take advantage—and Seth Lugo’s pitching form, though recently shaky, might just pull a rabbit out of the hat. So, who’s the real favorite here? Will the Royals keep their momentum and rack up a win, or will the Rangers find a spark to turn their fortunes around? The line is as unpredictable as ever, and I’m leaning under on runs but backing Kansas City for the W. Curious for the nitty-gritty on this showdown? LEARN MORE.

Rangers vs. Royals, 7:40 ET

It was a bit of a mixed bag yesterday as I hit the first play between the Cubs and Brewers, mostly because the Cubs offense is completely futile and they scored nothing in the matchup. I actually was somewhat unlucky and lucky. I was unlucky because the starting pitcher for the Cubs ended up getting pulled very early due to injury. He was a big factor in me playing the under. I was lucky the Cubs couldn’t muster a run and lost 7-0, but I got cash. Let’s hope we can grab some more of that luck here as the Rangers take on the Royals.

The Rangers are slipping further down the Wild Card standings. They have been struggling essentially since the All-Star Break and even a couple of moves at the trade deadline did very little to make a difference for the team. Texas does currently sit in third place in the AL West, but I feel like their chances at the division win are already over. The chance to capture a Wild Card spot is dwindling with every loss, and they’ve had plenty of them over the past five games, losing four of them. This is not an ideal spot for the Rangers, as they are bad on the road in comparison to their home performance. Today, they get one of those deadline acquisitions to take the mound in hopes of getting the Rangers a victory. Merrill Kelly is a talented starter, but he is a bit older, and the Diamondbacks knew this season was going nowhere. He should still receive a decent contract in the offseason as he probably has a couple of years left. Kelly is 9-7 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, even his strikeouts are at 136. This puts him in the top 30 of virtually all major stats (wins are at 32nd). He hasn’t been flawless since coming to the Rangers, allowing eight earned runs in 16 innings. He has six walks, 16 hits, and 15 strikeouts. He hasn’t faced the Royals this season, but he has held them to just 12 hits in 66 at-bats against him. 

The Royals are trending in the opposite direction of the Rangers. Kansas City isn’t necessarily going to grab a Wild Card spot, but they are above .500. They also took a stance at the trade deadline by signing players to extensions and not moving their key pieces. Overall, this team has been a bit strange on offense because they have a solid batting average, but they just can’t seem to get runs across the plate on a consistent basis. The Royals only have 475 runs for the season. They have 40 more hits than the Rangers, but 40 fewer runs. Sometimes it seems like teams just can’t get things to click. Today, they send out the guy they extended, Seth Lugo. Over the past couple of years, Lugo has been one of the better starters in baseball. For the season, Lugo is 8-6 with a 3.77 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. He has been slightly better at home this season with a 3.33 home ERA. He is coming off of two of his worst starts of the season. Over his past eight innings, he has allowed 13 earned runs. He did face Texas earlier this season, allowing one earned run on three hits over six innings. 

This matchup could go basically either way on the total. If Lugo ends up pitching the same way he has the last two games, it will fly over the total. I am a big believer in him and think he can make the adjustments needed. I expect Kelly to allow some runs, but not a ton. So, I do actually lean to the under. However, I think the Royals get a win today. The Rangers have been playing bad baseball and are bad on the road. The Royals are hotter and playing better at home. Back Kansas City.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024