Mariners Poised to Strike: Can They Outsmart the Padres in a Stunning Upset?

Ever find yourself rooting for an underdog just because the favorite’s numbers look a bit shaky? Tonight’s Padres vs. Mariners matchup is exactly that kind of head-scratcher — the Padres, with their deep, powerhouse roster, seem poised to dominate, yet Dylan Cease, typically an ace in the making, is struggling mightily on the road. Meanwhile, the Mariners, much like a chess player poised for the winning move, are balancing the pressure of chasing a playoff spot and hoping Luis Castillo’s home dominance can spark a comeback. It’s the kind of game that begs the question: Do stats really paint the full picture, or is this the moment where grit and guts tip the scales? After squeezing out a modest win yesterday, I’m ready to back the Mariners rolling into what might just be the start of a hot streak—because sometimes, you gotta trust the grind over the graphs. Curious how it all unfolds? LEARN MORE.

Padres vs. Mariners, 9:40 ET

I was able to get us a winning day yesterday. The problem is that the win was .05u for the day which is really not anything impressive, but the bankroll went up, not down, so let’s be happy. I lost the play on the Tigers winning the game over the Athletics on the run line, as the Athletics took the game outright. The win was a nice plus money victory on Matt Olson as he didn’t get a hit last night giving us a +130 win. I’m not sure we are going to get another plus money look here as we take on the Padres and Mariners, but let’s get a win.

The Padres are one of the best teams in baseball and have had a very nice second half of the year. Most people will probably point to the addition of the new closer and the other pieces that they added at the trade deadline. The truth is this team has always been good. They are arguably the deepest lineup in all of baseball, and their starting rotation has some of the bigger names in the game. The team just took two of three from the Dodgers and I’m excited to see if they can wrestle away the NL West from the Dodgers. They obviously need wins, and are facing a team that is also chasing a division entry into the playoffs tonight. The Padres send out Dylan Cease who is having a down year, but still have the potential to be one of the best starters in the game. Cease is 6-11 for the season with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Those numbers have him ranked as a #2 or #3 starter in the league, but he should be an Ace. He has been worse on the road this season by almost two full earned runs. Cease has been hit fairly well by the Mariners, they are batting .268 against him.

The Mariners and Padres have a lot of similarities. Both teams are fighting for their division, and likely will have a Wild Card spot even if they don’t make the playoffs as a division winner. They both made a flurry of moves at the trade deadline. After the trade deadline, the team ran off 10 wins in 11 games. After that, they ended up losing eight of their next 10 games. That puts them overall at 13-9 since the deadline, which isn’t too much different than the overall performance of the team for the season. I’m not saying the moves weren’t worth it, but I’m still a bit skeptical of the squad. They seemingly have all the pieces they need to win this year, it just needs to click like it did at first and they can’t have prolonged slumps. Today, they send out Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo is one of the guys I’ve gotten a lot of wins from over the past few years. Castillo is 8-7 for the season with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has been a monster at home this season, going 4-4 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 games in Seattle. This has been a rough month, though as Castillo has allowed 13 earned runs in 19.1 innings in August. The Padres have hit him pretty well, going 21-for-75 against Castillo with Luis Arraez having the most luck and a good look for over 1.5 total bases. 

Cease has been one of the hardest pitchers for me to predict this season. Perhaps it is because he had been so dominant, I am not allowing myself to realize that he is just struggling this season. I could see him allowing a bunch of runs tonight, but he always has the potential to throw a shutout as well. Instead of that, I’m going to back the Mariners to win this one. I think they might be at the start of a heater. Castillo is a great home pitcher, and Cease struggles on the road, especially this season. I’d also look at Arraez for over 1.5 total bases. 

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