Mets and Tigers Ignite a High-Stakes Offensive Duel: Who Will Break First?

Ever taken a break thinking it’d recharge you, only to find yourself stumbling right out of the gate? Yeah, that’s where I am this baseball season—my worst record yet at Outkick, despite barely missing on just one game. Go figure. But tonight, it’s all about a classic coin flip showdown—the Mets versus the Tigers—which, frankly, might just be the kind of nail-biter that reminds us why we love the game. The Mets, hanging onto their Wild Card hope like a long-lost treasure, have been a rollercoaster since June, while the Tigers have quietly pounced to one of the top American League spots. Both teams are treading water, battling to gain ground, and with starters Clay Holmes and Casey Mize on the mound—each a mixed bag of promise and unpredictability—it’s anyone’s guess who’ll roar louder by day’s end. Got a hunch? Me too. But hey, sometimes the best plays come when you throw caution—and the ball—right into the wind. LEARN MORE.

Mets vs. Tigers, 1:10 ET

I mentioned that I took a bit of time off from the diamond, and I thought that it would be beneficial. I, apparently, was wrong. I lost just one of the games, which is not ideal. This will be my worst year of baseball since I started writing for Outkick, but it still hasn’t been a disaster. The problem really is that I have historically been great on the coin flip games, but really struggled on them this season. They are the ones that I think have the best value as no one wants to read about taking a -175 favorite. Tonight, we take on another coinflip game as the Mets face the Tigers.

Is this a potential World Series preview? I suppose it could be as the Mets are still clinging on to their Wild Card spot. They have a five-game lead over the next closest team, the Reds. A lot of that is due to the Reds performance lately instead of the Mets suddenly finding their groove again. In fact, the Mets haven’t been very good since around the middle of June. On June 12th, they completed a sweep of the Nationals and were 21 games over .500. Since that point, they have been nine games under .500. After that sweep, they dropped 10 of 11 games, and 14 of 17. Their second half struggles have been well documented. After winning seven straight, they dropped 14 of 16 games. Overall, though, they are just one game under .500 since the All-Star Break. Today, they look to close out the sweep against the Tigers with Clay Holmes on the mound. Holmes is 11-6 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Despite those numbers, Holmes has had some shaky outings and doesn’t go much past five innings, typically. Tigers hitters have also done well against Holmes they have nine hits in 33 at-bats. 

The Tigers are currently owners of one of the top spots in the American League. They are 20 games over .500 for the season, and most of that success has come on their home turf. Looking at their statistics compared to the Mets, they are very similar. The Tigers are hitting about the same, and have scored two more runs than their opponent. They have almost 20 fewer homers than the Mets as well. Even the ERA is the same between the two teams. The Tigers are exactly .500 since the All-Star Break, and are also basically .500 since the middle of June. Today, Casey Mize takes the hill with a 12-5 record, 3.95 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. He has been slightly better at home this season, but his ERA is still just 3.61. Mize has struggled since July, allowing 28 earned runs over 42 innings. Last month, he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of the past four games, but only one of those saw him complete six innings. Miza has faced the Mets in just 27 at-bats, with them getting six hits off of him.

As I’ve shown, the two teams are struggling a bit to make progress since the middle of June. The Tigers would really like to avoid a sweep here, which does make me think they probably grab the win. The first two games, the Mets broke out their bats, getting 10 or more runs in both games. In fact, in their past three wins, they have had 19, 10, and 12 runs scored. I think the best idea here is to take the over 8.5 runs. Both starters are allowing runs regularly, I think we see this one go over the total as well. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024