Miami’s Stunning Win Over Notre Dame Sparks Controversy in CFP Race—Will It Be Enough?

Alright, here’s the deal — the Miami Hurricanes find themselves in quite the conundrum as the College Football Playoff spiral tightens. Nestled at No. 11 in the latest bracket, they’re eyeing a daunting road trip against Oregon, their ticket to possibly flip the script on the playoff narrative. Yet, make no mistake, Miami’s slot feels more like a stand-in for whoever tops the ACC, facing a stiff climb just to even sniff the conference championship by December 6. What truly spins heads is the bubbling debate—does Miami’s head-to-head victory over Notre Dame really tip the scales, or is it overshadowed by broader metrics the committee swears by? As the pundits go back and forth, and the committee clusters teams tighter than ever, the Hurricanes’ journey through the playoff maze is anything but straightforward. For those hungry for the nitty-gritty twists and turns of this playoff saga, you’ll want to dive deeper right here: LEARN MORE.

The Miami Hurricanes may be in the most unique position when it comes to the College Football Playoff.

Fans loading the latest bracket will see the Hurricanes at the No. 11 seed, angling for a road game against Oregon in the first round.

However, Miami is more or less the placeholder for the eventual ACC champion and the Hurricanes have an uphill battle to reach the conference title game on Dec. 6.

Miami is 12th in the latest CFP rankings, moving up one spot from last week. Da U is one of several teams in a large cluster of 9-2 teams. They are three spots below No. 9 Notre Dame, also 9-2. The catch is, one of Notre Dame’s losses is the season-opener at Miami.

The Miami-Notre Dame debate has emerged as the premiere debate this season in a sport that almost annually has one. During the bracket reveal show on ESPN, a few pundits tried to explain why this particular head-to-head result may not matter much in determining the field of 12.

Why Miami vs. Notre Dame matchup may not matter

One way the College Football Playoff committee lays out the rankings is by putting teams in clusters. And, as ESPN reporter Heather Dinich laid out, Miami and Notre Dame are in the same cluster.

So what gives?

Dinich surmised that that may not be a spot on the list high enough for Miami to reach to eclipse Notre Dame (unless the Fighting Irish fall to Stanford in their season finale).

Why? When looking at some of the other metrics used by the committee, Notre Dame is third in Football Power Index, while Miami is 10th. ND’s strength of record is ranked 12th while UM’s is 15th. And, as Dinich pointed out, Notre Dame is fifth in overall efficiency.

“Right now, those people in that room think Notre Dame is better than Miami, period,” Dinich said.

ESPN analyst Booger McFarland couldn’t disagree with the premise any more.

“What Heather said that, when you start looking at all these different metrics about this and that, I ain’t got to look at all of that. I just go back and turn the tape on when these two teams played. That’s the only metric I need.”

What does CFP committee chair say about Miami vs. Notre Dame?

Near the end of the ESPN show on Nov. 25, College Football Playoff committee chair Hunter Yurachek, Arkansas athletic director, admitted that Miami and Notre Dame were in fact in the same cluster this week. But, it’s a cluster that included No. 10 Alabama (9-2) and No. 11 BYU (10-1).

“The committee still feels that Notre Dame is a complete team, has been consistent throughout the season and deserves to be ranked where they are at No. 9, ahead of Alabama, a really good two-loss team with some great wins, and a one-loss BYU team, and then Miami falls in accordingly” Yurachek said.

For context, Notre Dame followed the opening loss at Miami with a one-point loss to now-No. 3 Texas A&M, and have reeled off nine straight wins since.

“The committee has seen some consistent play from Miami over the last three weeks. You talk about (UM quarterback) Carson Beck, over his last three games, has completed over 80% of his passes, 800 yards passing, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. He looks like the Carson Beck in that five-game winning streak they had to start the season. They lost two out of three (home vs. Louisville, at now-No. 21 SMU) but now appear to be back on track.

“They started in this poll at 18, and they are now up to 12. They are the biggest mover over the past four weeks.”

What does Miami need to make ACC championship?

The Hurricanes enter Week 13 in fifth place in the ACC standings and need to win out to have a shot at making the ACC championship game. They also need Pitt to beat Georgia Tech this weekend, Virginia Tech to upset Virginia in two weeks, and have SMU and Duke both lose one of their last two games. The Mustangs play at Louisville and at home vs. Cal, while the Blue Devils host North Carolina and visit Wake Forest.

College Football Playoff bracket: Who’s in, who’s out

By conference, the 12-team playoff now has five SEC teams, three Big Ten teams, one team from the ACC, one from the Big 12, one from the American and one independent.