Michigan State’s Surprising March Madness Seed: What It Means for Their Championship Hopes

Tom Izzo is on the brink of rewriting Big Ten coaching history, aiming to snag that elusive title to become the league’s all-time leader in championships. Meanwhile, Michigan State’s basketball squad is not just coasting—they’re charging forward, eyeing yet another NCAA tournament appearance, extending Izzo’s incredible streak to 27 consecutive years. The ultimate prize? A ninth Final Four trip and a second national championship banner hanging from the Breslin Center rafters. Since slipping against Nebraska early this month, the Spartans have surged with four straight wins, maintaining the momentum they carried from last season. Currently sitting at No. 12 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, MSU is positioning themselves for a prime seed as March Madness looms. Each week, I’ll be diving into how the Spartans stack up, breaking down their progress and tournament projections as we inch closer to Selection Sunday—there’s plenty at stake and plenty to talk about. LEARN MORE

As Tom Izzo looks to break the tie and become the coach with the most Big Ten titles all-time, Michigan State basketball also is well on its way to adding to his ongoing record of 27 straight NCAA tournament appearances is well underway.

With his ultimate mission of adding a ninth Final Four and second national title.

The Spartans have won four straight games since losing to Nebraska on Jan. 2 and remain on the same high rate of success as they were at this time last year. They ranked No. 12 in last week’s USA ODAY Sports Coaches Poll while pushing for another top NCAA Tournament seeding come Selection Sunday in March.

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo thanks the alumni Izzone for supporting the Spartans in the victory over USC on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. — Michigan State’s head coach Tom Izzo thanks the alumni Izzone for supporting the Spartans in the victory over USC on Monday, Jan. 5, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

Each week moving forward, the Free Press will take a look back at the Spartans’ previous week and assess how their resume has changed and stacks up to the competition.

Michigan State basketball bracketology for NCAA Tournament

Net rankings: No. 12 (began week No. 13)

All rankings entering Monday’s games.

Quad 1 record: 5-2
Quad 2 record: 3-0
Quad 3 record: 2-0
Quad 4 record: 6-0

KenPom rankings: No. 10 (began last week No. 13)

All rankings entering Monday.

Offensive efficiency: No. 55
Defensive efficiency: No. 1

Bracketology projections

ESPN: 4-seed in East Region vs. UNC Wilmington
CBS: 3-seed in West Region vs. Utah Valley

Michigan basketball schedule this week

Tuesday: at Oregon, 9 p.m., FS1
Saturday: vs. Maryland, noon, CBS

MSU basketball scores last week

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (1) looks to pass the ball against Indiana guard Conor Enright (5) during the first half at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026.

Jan. 13: 81-60 win over Indiana – Closing out a perfect three-game homestand, Jeremy Fears Jr. scored 19 of his career-best 23 points in the first half and handed out 10 assists while directing the Spartans to a 25-12 fastbreak advantage. Jaxon Kohler posted his 10th double-double of the season with 16 points and 10 rebounds, as the Spartans owned a 37-19 rebounding edge and held IU to 10-for-31 on 3-point attempts.

Jan. 17: 80-63 win at Washington – Fears again willed the Spartans, scoring 14 of his 19 points in the second half to kick off a stretch of three road games in their next four. MSU overcame off games from both Kohler (seven points on 3-for-11 shooting, with seven rebounds) and Coen Carr (six points and four rebounds, missing 3 of 4 free throws). However, MSU’s bench outscored the Huskies’ reserves, 31-7, as all 11 Spartans who played scored at least two points and nine grabbed at least one rebound. MSU, which started last season 18-2 before losing its first Big Ten games on a West Coast trip to USC and UCLA, improved to 16-2 and 6-1.

How NCAA tournament committee selects at-large teams

Record: The team’s overall record, conference record and nonconference record.

Strength of schedule: The strength of the opponents the team played against.

Head-to-head results: The results of games between the teams being compared.

Conference championships: Whether a conference championship was won in the regular season or tournament.

Common opponents: The results of games against common opponents.

Adjusted Net Efficiency (NET): The NCAA’s preferred metric measuring a team’s overall performance during the regular season.

Team Value Index: A results-oriented component of the NET that ranks teams based on who they beat and where they played.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI): A formula that ranks teams using a team’s winning percentage, opponents’ success and opponents’ strength of schedule.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball bracketology, seed for NCAA Tournament