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MLB 2026: Surprising Division Winners and Shocking Upsets You Won’t See Coming

MLB 2026: Surprising Division Winners and Shocking Upsets You Won't See Coming

The only sure thing in baseball is that many expectations will be wrong. A contender will prove to be a pretender. An also-ran will make a run.

So baseball writers Ryan Fagan and Zach Crizer, who have already made MLB awards predictions, are back to gaze into the future of the 2026 season and take their best shot. Below, they pick a winner and dish out a bold prediction for each division.

For comparison, we’ll add in the Opta TRACR projection model.

MLB Predictions 2026 Projected Records
Graphic by Graham Bell.

Crizer’s Winner: Boston Red Sox

Forget flipping a coin. You might need dice to properly approximate the unpredictability of the AL East. Any of the five teams could win this division, and four of them seem totally realistic (sorry, Tampa Bay Rays). Ultimately, I’m going to choose depth for the regular season. I think the New York Yankees and Blue Jays have a better case as eventual World Series champions, but the Boston Red Sox are rolling in rotation options and productive hitters. That counts for a lot over 162 games.

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