MLB Playoffs Showdown: The Four Surprising Factors That Could Flip the League Championship Series Upside Down

As the baseball postseason reaches its crescendo, the final four teams have launched what feels like a high-stakes mini-tournament — a gritty showdown that defies the usual chatter about payrolls and star power. Sure, three of these contenders carry payrolls north of $240 million, while one plucky AL Central club reminds us that money might open doors, but it doesn’t always decide who walks through them. So, what really separates these titans from the pretenders as they chase the World Series crown? Let’s peel back the layers beyond the typical box score, because, honestly, the game isn’t won by dollars alone. I’m diving into four advanced metrics that not only challenge traditional stats, but reveal the subtle, almost secret weapons that might tip the scales in October—where the margins are razor-thin and every pitch, swing, and bullpen move counts more than ever. Ready to see who’s got the real edge as the postseason drama unfolds?

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Baseball’s final four teams have started their own mini-tournament.

Why is that, you might ask? We’ll come back to that in a moment. 

The quick definition: BIP+ measures which batters do the most damage when they make contact. Think of it as an advanced BABIP (batting average on balls in play), with more value given for, as an example, lining a double into the gap on an 0-2 pitch than on a 3-1 pitch.

The Royals were one of the very worst teams in baseball in this statistic (93.9), which anecdotal evidence confirms after watching Kansas City hitters flail away at pitches they had little chance of making contact with during the Yankees series, especially in the final game of the division series.

Offensive Discipline+

1. 108.2 – New York Yankees
2. 107.8 – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. 99.1 – New York Mets
4. 96.2 – Cleveland Guardians

It’s going to be a fun few weeks, folks.

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One’s much harder than the other, right?

The quick definition: Whiff+ rates the ability of the pitcher to generate swings and misses compared to league average (100) and adjusted by pitch type. The ability to avoid contact in the late innings of postseason games is huge, so this stat makes sense to highlight for the relievers.

The Guardians have had a somewhat unlikely hero emerge this month, though, with ex-Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas popping crooked-number home runs in key moments to even the field a bit. 

And it’s time to look at factors other than money – you’ve probably noticed this final group is three clubs with payrolls north of 0 million and a team from the AL Central – that should have an impact on who plays for the World Series title at the end of this month. 

And the Dodgers? Starter Walker Buehler  gave up six runs versus the San Diego Padres in the second inning of Game 3 and then the LA pitching staff didn’t allow a single run in the final 24 innings of the series. Let’s put it this way: By the end of that five-game series vs. the Padres, seven different Dodgers relievers had thrown at least 1.0 inning with an ERA of 0.00, and those seven relievers had combined for 23 strikeouts in 20.2 innings of work. 

By Win Probability Added (WPA), Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning home run in Game 3 of the wild-card series in Milwaukee was the biggest hit so far of the playoffs, and Francisco Lindor’s grand slam in Game 4 of the division series was the third-biggest hit. Two of Mark Vientos’ home runs – in Games 1 and 2 against the Phillies – made the top 10, too. 

Bullpen Whiff+

1. 113.3 – New York Mets
2. 111.4 – Cleveland Guardians
3. 107.4 – New York Yankees
4. 106.6 – Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers run such a veteran, October-tested lineup out there. I’m not one to say “experience is the most important thing” but when players have been in that postseason spotlight often – whether they’ve succeeded or failed – they generally learn to stay within their approach, and this is a stat where that experience will show in October. 

Especially against the quality of opponent that’s made it this far.

The post MLB Playoffs: The Four Factors Likely to Make a Difference in the League Championship Series appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Here’s a stat that will surprise absolutely nobody: Juan Soto led all qualified hitters in discipline+ (132.7) and we’ll counter that with one that will surprise you: Gleyber Torres finished third (124.0) in the category. Aaron Judge, who posted the lowest strikeout percentage of his career (24.3%) was in the top 10, too, at 118.5. You’re starting to see why the Yankees rate so well in discipline+.

Just ask Jose Quintana, who had a solid-not-great 3.75 ERA and 4.56 in 31 regular-season starts, but has been dominating in the postseason, rolling up a 0.00 ERA over 11 innings with 11 strikeouts and only six hits and three walks.

A broken-bat blooper can’t fall in for a hit if the batter doesn’t make contact, y’know?

Offensive BIP+

1. 124.2 – Los Angeles Dodgers
2. 116.2 – New York Mets
3. 116.1 – New York Yankees
4. 77.9 – Cleveland Guardians

Big, big gap between the top three teams and Cleveland, obviously.

(Entering Monday)

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