MLB Power Rankings Unveiled: Shocking Upsets and Comeback Stories Loom for 2025 Season

Introduction to the 2025 MLB Power Rankings:

As we stand at the precipice of another thrilling MLB season, the timeless phrase “Hope springs eternal” echoes through the hearts of fans across baseball nation. Imagine the possibilities—a team that once scraped the depths could ascend to new heights. We’ve witnessed these turnarounds before; the Kansas City Royals, who leapt from a 56-106 record in ’23 to a commendable 86-76 last year, provide a vivid example of baseball’s unpredictability. And let’s not forget the Texas Rangers, who transformed a dismal 68-94 season into a World Series title the following year!

The question that tickles every fan’s fancy is: Who will pull off baseball's Cinderella story in 2025? And on the other side of the spectrum, can the Los Angeles Dodgers, who fortified their lineup like a warship in the off-season, anchor themselves at the top?

With our supercomputer crunching numbers and our proprietary TRACR model—adjusting for park effects, luck, and other variables—we’re not just pulling predictions out of a hat. No, sir. We’re diving deep into the data seas to fish out true whale wisdom, offering you a data-informed glimpse into where each club might land this upcoming season.

We’re pairing these projections with last year’s raw value leaders from both hitters and pitchers. And remember, these rankings are fluid, updating like the ocean’s tides throughout the season. Our TRACR and raw value insights will shift, ebb, and flow, ensuring you’re always in the know.

So, immerse yourself in our season-long predictions and our advanced leaderboard, and see if your favorite team rallies or if an underdog derails the expectations. LEARN MORE.
There’s a feeling that no matter how bad last season was, everything can change in the year ahead. Just last season, the Kansas City Royals jumped from a 56-106 record in 2023 to an 86-76 mark and a series win over the Baltimore Orioles. And the year before, the Texas Rangers went from a 68-94 finish in 2022 to a 90-72 finish and a 2023 World Series title.

We’re also including each team’s raw value leader from last season (qualifiers only). Raw value+ (RV+) examines how a hitter performs throughout each pitch of an at-bat rather than just the end result, while raw value- (RV-) does the same from a pitcher’s perspective. The league average is 100, with the higher score, the better for hitters and the lower, the better for pitchers.

Who will be make this year’s big turnaround? And will the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers spend the entire season at No. 1 after seemingly signing everyone not named Juan Soto in the offseason?

With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our MLB power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections every month throughout the 2025 season.

“Hope springs eternal” is a popular phrase for fans everywhere heading into a new season.

TRACR normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).

The post MLB Power Rankings: Where Every Team Stands Heading Into the 2025 Season appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Keep in mind our TRACR rankings will shift constantly throughout the month. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page and our raw value leaders on our advanced leaderboard.

Opta Analyst’s MLB Power Rankings

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (TRACR: 1.39)

• 2024 Record: 98-64
• 2024 Final Ranking: 11th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 12/Pitching & Defense No. 12
• 2024 RV Leaders: Shohei Ohtani (200.1)/Jack Flaherty (89.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 92.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 28.2%

2. New York Yankees (1.14)

• 2024 Record: 94-68
• 2024 Final Ranking: 3rd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 4/Pitching & Defense No. 9
• 2024 RV Leaders: Aaron Judge (207.8)/Nestor Cortes (90.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 90.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 27.3%

3. New York Mets (0.89)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 15th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 5/Pitching & Defense No. 24
• 2024 RV Leaders: Francisco Lindor (142.6)/Luis Severino (87.6)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 71.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 11.5%

4. Atlanta Braves (0.84)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 2nd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 17/Pitching & Defense No. 1
• 2024 RV Leaders: Marcell Ozuna (168.8)/Chris Sale (61.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 16.0%

5. San Diego Padres (0.72)

• 2024 Record: 93-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 13th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 11/Pitching & Defense No. 14
• 2024 RV Leaders: Jackson Merrill (137.5)/Dylan Cease (75.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 69.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 10.3%

6. Houston Astros (0.61)

• 2024 Record: 88-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 4th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Pitching & Defense No. 10
• 2024 RV Leaders: Yordan Alvarez (170.0)/Framber Valdez (72.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 13.4%

7. Kansas City Royals (0.60)

• 2024 Record: 86-76
• 2024 Final Ranking: 9th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 15/Pitching & Defense No. 5
• 2024 RV Leaders: Bobby Witt Jr. (168.1)/Cole Ragans (76.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 74.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 12.7%

8. Arizona Diamondbacks (0.60)

• 2024 Record: 89-73
• 2024 Final Ranking: 16th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 2/Pitching & Defense No. 29
• 2024 RV Leaders: Ketel Marte (153.7)/Brandon Pfaadt (94.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 49.9%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.1%

9. Baltimore Orioles (0.57)

• 2024 Record: 91-71
• 2024 Final Ranking: 8th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 3/Pitching & Defense No. 17
• 2024 RV Leaders: Gunnar Henderson (134.2)/Corbin Burnes (76.4)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 63.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 8.6%

10. Philadelphia Phillies (0.53)

• 2024 Record: 95-67
• 2024 Final Ranking: 1st
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 7/Pitching & Defense No. 3
• 2024 RV Leaders: Kyle Schwarber (140.6)/Zack Wheeler (63.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 57.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 9.1%

11. Seattle Mariners (0.52)

• 2024 Record: 85-77
• 2024 Final Ranking: 17th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 28/Pitching & Defense No. 2
• 2024 RV Leaders: Cal Raleigh (122.3)/Logan Gilbert (79.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 78.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 14.0%

12. Milwaukee Brewers (0.50)

• 2024 Record: 93-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 6th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 10/Pitching & Defense No. 8
• 2024 RV Leaders: William Contreras (130.7)/Freddy Peralta (86.3)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 58.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 7.4%

13. Cleveland Guardians (0.44)

• 2024 Record: 92-69
• 2024 Final Ranking: 7th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 8/Pitching & Defense No. 11
• 2024 RV Leaders: Jose Ramirez (118.6)/Tanner Bibee (98.8)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 64.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 9.2%

14. Chicago Cubs (0.34)

• 2024 Record: 83-79
• 2024 Final Ranking: 18th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 21/Pitching & Defense No. 6
• 2024 RV Leaders: Seiya Suzuki (123.4)/Shota Imanaga (90.1)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 51.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.0%

15. Detroit Tigers (0.17)

• 2024 Record: 86-76
• 2024 Final Ranking: 21st
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 22/Pitching & Defense No. 15
• 2024 RV Leaders: Riley Greene (117.6)/Tarik Skubal (64.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 51.0%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 6.7%

16. Boston Red Sox (0.09)

• 2024 Record: 81-81
• 2024 Final Ranking: 14th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 9/Pitching & Defense No. 16
• 2024 RV Leaders: Rafael Devers (132.6)/Kutter Crawford (95.2)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 28.0%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 3.2%

17. Cincinnati Reds (0.02)

• 2024 Record: 77-85
• 2024 Final Ranking: 12th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 16/Pitching & Defense No. 4
• 2024 RV Leaders: Spencer Steer (107.8)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 26.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 2.2%

18. San Francisco Giants (-0.03)

• 2024 Record: 80-82
• 2024 Final Ranking: 19th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 13/Pitching & Defense No. 23
• 2024 RV Leaders: Matt Chapman (125.8)/Logan Webb (116.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 21.8%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.5%

19. Minnesota Twins (-0.13)

• 2024 Record: 82-80
• 2024 Final Ranking: 5th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 1/Pitching & Defense No. 18
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Carlos Santana (110.2)/Bailey Ober (80.5)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 20.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.7%

20. St. Louis Cardinals (-0.23)

• 2024 Record: 83-79
• 2024 Final Ranking: 23rd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 20/Pitching & Defense No. 19
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Paul Goldschmidt (120.6)/Sonny Gray (87.0)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.2%

21. Tampa Bay Rays (-0.30)

• 2024 Record: 80-82
• 2024 Final Ranking: 25th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 27/Pitching & Defense No. 20
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Yandy Diaz (132.7)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 18.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.1%

22. Toronto Blue Jays (-0.34)

• 2024 Record: 74-88
• 2024 Final Ranking: 22nd
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 18/Pitching & Defense No. 22
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (165.2)/Kevin Gausman (112.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 13.4%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 1.1%

23. Texas Rangers (-0.35)

• 2024 Record: 78-84
• 2024 Final Ranking: 10th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 14/Pitching & Defense No. 7
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Corey Seager (158.4)/Nathan Eovaldi (98.1)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 14.7%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.7%

24. Pittsburgh Pirates (-0.47)

• 2024 Record: 76-86
• 2024 Final Ranking: 20th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 19/Pitching & Defense No. 13
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Bryan Reynolds (125.0)/Mitch Keller (110.9)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 7.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.3%

25. Washington Nationals (-0.70)

• 2024 Record: 71-91
• 2024 Final Ranking: 24th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 26/Pitching & Defense No. 21
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Luis Garcia Jr. (130.8)/MacKenzie Gore (98.8)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.3%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.1%

26. Athletics (-0.92)

• 2024 Record: 69-93
• 2024 Final Ranking: 27th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 25/Pitching & Defense No. 26
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Brent Rooker (139.3)/JP Sears (107.4)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: 0.2%

27. Los Angeles Angels (-1.17)

• 2024 Record: 63-99
• 2024 Final Ranking: 26th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 23/Pitching & Defense No. 27
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Taylor Ward (127.5)/Tyler Anderson (104.7)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.6%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

28. Miami Marlins (-1.21)

• 2024 Record: 62-100
• 2024 Final Ranking: 29th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 29/Pitching & Defense No. 28
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Jesus Sanchez (122.2)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.2%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

29. Colorado Rockies (-1.60)

• 2024 Record: 61-101
• 2024 Final Ranking: 30th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 24/Pitching & Defense No. 30
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Ryan McMahon (106.1)/Ryan Feltner (106.3)
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

30. Chicago White Sox (-2.02)

• 2024 Record: 41-121
• 2024 Final Ranking: 28th
• 2024 TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 30/Pitching & Defense No. 25
• 2024 Raw Value Leaders: Andrew Vaughn (98.7)/No Qualifiers
• 2025 Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
• 2025 Probability of Reaching the World Series: <0.1%

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To help us sort out where clubs rank heading into the new season, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions for 2025. So our power rankings are not Joe Expert’s opinion. They are based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.