Monday Night Football Showdown: Will Tight Ends Decide the Cardinals-Cowboys Clash?
Here we go – Monday Night Football’s curtain call for Week 9 pits the Arizona Cardinals against the Dallas Cowboys in what’s shaping up to be a nail-biter. Both teams are navigating turbulent waters, desperately clutching at victories to keep their playoff dreams alive. The Cowboys enter as favorites, but we all know how unpredictable football can be, especially when pride and postseason hopes hang in the balance. Can the Cardinals snap their skid without Kyler Murray steering the ship? Will the Cowboys’ offense finally find the rhythm to silence skeptics and push their record to even? It’s a classic showdown steeped in history, but tonight, it’s all about who grabs that lifeline first. Ready for a game where star tight ends might just swing the momentum? Let’s dive in and unpack what’s at stake.
The Cardinals and Cowboys meet on Monday Night Football in the finale of the NFL’s Week 9, with both teams desperately needing a win to keep their seasons afloat.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals: The Key Stats
- The Cowboys are favored to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football, with the Opta supercomputer giving Dallas a 63.2% win probability (as of Sunday).
- All-Time Meetings: Cowboys 56-34-1
- Last Meeting: Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16 (Sept. 24, 2023)
- Dallas has scored 76 points outside of the red zone this season, the second most in the NFL. Arizona’s defense has allowed just 21 points outside the red zone, the second fewest.
- In four seasons with the Broncos, Javonte Williams never had more than four rushing touchdowns in a single year. In eight games in Dallas, Williams has eight rushing TDs.
From 1970-2001, the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys were NFC East rivals.
As silly as it is to think of Dallas and Arizona in the East division (the Cardinals were based in St. Louis from 1960-87), the Cardinals and Cowboys share a fair amount of history.
For the most part, the Cardinals were punching bags for a Cowboys organization that had two dynastic runs – one that produced five Super Bowl appearances and two titles in the 1970s and another that saw Dallas win three Super Bowls in four seasons from 1992-95.
The Cowboys were 45-19 against the Cardinals while they were division foes, and from 1990-96, Dallas won 13 consecutive games against Arizona, tied for the seventh-longest streak against a division opponent since the AFL-NFL merger.
The Cardinals exacted some level of revenge, however, winning four of the final seven matchups while in the NFC East, including a 20-7 win in Dallas in the only ever postseason meeting between the teams.
Many fans of the Cowboys were saddened to see all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith end his career with the Cardinals after he was released by Dallas, and both teams’ supporters lay claim to mountainous fan favorite and offensive guard Leonard Davis, whose listed playing size was 6-foot-6 and 355 pounds.
More recent vintages of this matchup have favored Arizona, with the Cardinals winning seven of the last eight dating back to 2008.
As the Cardinals and Cowboys meet in Dallas on Monday Night Football this week, however, both teams need a win to keep their 2025 seasons afloat.
Arizona opened the season 2-0 but lost five straight games – all by four points or fewer – heading into last week’s bye. Despite the skid, the Cardinals have been competitive in every game, and there is hope that small improvements could lead to more victories in close games.
Dallas sits at 3-4-1 but is second in the NFC East entering Week 9. The results have been inconsistent all season, with all three wins immediately followed by a loss, including last week’s 44-24 drubbing at the hands of the Denver Broncos.
So will the Cardinals end their skid and reignite playoff hopes, or will the Cowboys get back to .500 with their own lofty goals?
Cardinals’ Key to Victory vs. Cowboys
Arizona will play without starting quarterback Kyler Murray, who is still recovering from a foot injury. Jacoby Brissett will start his third consecutive game, and while the Cardinals are 0-2 in those games, there is reason to believe the offense is improving under Brissett.
It would be lazy to say that Brissett is better than Murray and probably unfair to say that the Cardinals are better off without the former No. 1 overall pick.
Brissett’s 97.7 passer rating this season is notably higher than Murray’s 88.6, but Murray is averaging over 40 yards more per game through the air and remains the team’s leading rusher despite missing the last two games. Some advanced numbers favor Murray as well, with him holding the advantage in open target rate, well-thrown rate and expected completion percentage.
But Brissett has helped reignite Arizona’s deeper passing game, which has led to dividends across the board. He’s averaging 2.0 completions per game of 25 or more yards, while Murray is averaging 1.2 explosive completions per game.
The biggest difference, however, can be seen in simply being willing to push the ball downfield with some regularity. Murray averages 6.29 air yards per attempt, ranking 37th out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 50 adjusted attempts (no spikes or throwaways).
Brissett ranks third at 9.57 air yards per attempt.
Continued growth of the passing game could hinge on the team’s ability to get the ball in the hands of Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s averaging fewer targets and receptions than in his rookie campaign last year, but he already has more catches of 25+ yards (four) than last season (three).
Harrison, who was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is averaging 13.1 yards per reception, up from 11.6 last season. And his average yards after catch have also increased.
Though he has yet to really breakout in Year 2, there’s a chance that Harrison could increase his production with more opportunities.
Tight end Trey McBride, however, is usually the first option in this offense. He’s been targeted 66 times in seven games this season, more than any other tight end in the league, and he has yet to drop a pass.
McBride also has an NFL-high 42 burns and has become one of the NFL’s premier chain-movers. He has made 11 third-down receptions that have resulted in a first down, the sixth most in the league, regardless of position.
The Cardinals could find success through the air by moving the chains with McBride before stretching the field with Harrison, especially against a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in opponent passing success rate (46.4%).
Cowboys’ Key to Victory vs. Cardinals
While the Cowboys have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, they’ve been among the very best offensively. They’re second in scoring (30.8 points per game) and eighth in offensive success rate (42.7%).
With 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions and a 101.6 passer rating, Dak Prescott is on pace for another impressive season under center, and receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are among the most exciting pass catchers in the league.
Javonte Williams has taken over as a featured running back in his first season in Dallas, scoring nine total touchdowns in eight games while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. But the unsung hero of the offense has been tight end Jake Ferguson.
Ferguson leads all tight ends with 51 receptions, and he’s tied for second among his positional peers with six touchdown receptions. His average depth of target is just 4.5 yards downfield, but his skills as a safety valve and in the red zone could be vital on Monday.
Prescott leads the NFL in completions of 25+ yards, and the Cowboys have generally been able to generate big plays, but the Cardinals have been very successful at limiting explosive plays.
Dallas has had 27 drives of three plays or fewer that have resulted in points, making it a top-five quick-strike offense. But Arizona has allowed just three such drives all season.
Prescott may need to be more patient than usual, and he may want to check down often to a familiar target in Ferguson. As for the rushing game, the Cowboys’ running backs could find daylight by rushing out of three-receiver sets.
Dallas has run 68.9% of its plays in 11 personnel – one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers. While this is usually considered a more finesse and pass-first grouping, the Cowboys have averaged 5.9 yards per carry in 11 personnel.
While Prescott, Lamb and Pickens force defenses to prepare for downfield passes, Williams and Miles Sanders have gashed defenses that usually feature more defensive backs. That kind of balance has made Dallas almost impossible to stop and could be the key on Monday.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals Prediction
With both teams hoping to claw back into playoff contention, the loser of Monday’s game will face a steep climb in a pool of NFC teams that has proven to be deeper than expected.
The Cardinals have won three straight games against the Cowboys and seven of the last eight matchups overall. Their 91 points scored in the last three meetings are their most in a three-game span in this series since the team moved to Arizona in 1988.
But in 63.2% of the simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, the Cowboys walked away with a home victory that lifted them back to .500.
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The post Cardinals vs. Cowboys Predictions: Star Tight Ends Could Make the Difference on Monday Night Football appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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